Time of Emergence for Altimetry‐Based Significant Wave Height Changes in the North Atlantic
International audience Satellite observations of significant wave height (Hs) have recently reached 30 years of continuous record. Is this length sufficient to detect the effect of anthropogenically forced climate change on wave height trends? Wave height decadal variability is influenced by a combi...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-04115904 https://hal.science/hal-04115904/document https://hal.science/hal-04115904/file/Hochet_GRL2023.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102348 |
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ftunivbrest:oai:HAL:hal-04115904v1 2024-04-14T08:15:33+00:00 Time of Emergence for Altimetry‐Based Significant Wave Height Changes in the North Atlantic Hochet, Antoine Dodet, Guillaume Sévellec, Florian Bouin, Marie‐noëlle Patra, Anindita Ardhuin, Fabrice Laboratoire d'Océanographie Physique et Spatiale (LOPS) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) CNRS-Region Bretagne Grant (Stratégie d’Attractivité Durable) CT N°LS 215643—REGION BRETAGNE (20006778). 2023-04-28 https://hal.science/hal-04115904 https://hal.science/hal-04115904/document https://hal.science/hal-04115904/file/Hochet_GRL2023.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102348 en eng HAL CCSD American Geophysical Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2022GL102348 hal-04115904 https://hal.science/hal-04115904 https://hal.science/hal-04115904/document https://hal.science/hal-04115904/file/Hochet_GRL2023.pdf doi:10.1029/2022GL102348 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0094-8276 EISSN: 1944-8007 Geophysical Research Letters https://hal.science/hal-04115904 Geophysical Research Letters, 2023, 50 (9), ⟨10.1029/2022GL102348⟩ [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2023 ftunivbrest https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102348 2024-03-21T16:22:40Z International audience Satellite observations of significant wave height (Hs) have recently reached 30 years of continuous record. Is this length sufficient to detect the effect of anthropogenically forced climate change on wave height trends? Wave height decadal variability is influenced by a combination of internal variability and forced variability caused by both anthropogenic and natural forcing. Using a statistical model to derive Hs from sea level pressure field and exploiting ERA-5 reanalysis data as well as 80 members of the Community Earth System Model v2 large ensemble, we show that, over the North Atlantic (NA), altimetry-based Hs trends are mostly caused by internal variability. This suggests that Hs changes computed over the satellite era are not yet controlled by anthropogenic climate change. Starting from 1993, the date of emergence, defined as the date when the forced signal becomes dominant over the internal variability, is later than 2050 for Hs in the NA. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Université de Bretagne Occidentale: HAL Geophysical Research Letters 50 9 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Université de Bretagne Occidentale: HAL |
op_collection_id |
ftunivbrest |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography Hochet, Antoine Dodet, Guillaume Sévellec, Florian Bouin, Marie‐noëlle Patra, Anindita Ardhuin, Fabrice Time of Emergence for Altimetry‐Based Significant Wave Height Changes in the North Atlantic |
topic_facet |
[SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography |
description |
International audience Satellite observations of significant wave height (Hs) have recently reached 30 years of continuous record. Is this length sufficient to detect the effect of anthropogenically forced climate change on wave height trends? Wave height decadal variability is influenced by a combination of internal variability and forced variability caused by both anthropogenic and natural forcing. Using a statistical model to derive Hs from sea level pressure field and exploiting ERA-5 reanalysis data as well as 80 members of the Community Earth System Model v2 large ensemble, we show that, over the North Atlantic (NA), altimetry-based Hs trends are mostly caused by internal variability. This suggests that Hs changes computed over the satellite era are not yet controlled by anthropogenic climate change. Starting from 1993, the date of emergence, defined as the date when the forced signal becomes dominant over the internal variability, is later than 2050 for Hs in the NA. |
author2 |
Laboratoire d'Océanographie Physique et Spatiale (LOPS) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Brest (UBO)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) CNRS-Region Bretagne Grant (Stratégie d’Attractivité Durable) CT N°LS 215643—REGION BRETAGNE (20006778). |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hochet, Antoine Dodet, Guillaume Sévellec, Florian Bouin, Marie‐noëlle Patra, Anindita Ardhuin, Fabrice |
author_facet |
Hochet, Antoine Dodet, Guillaume Sévellec, Florian Bouin, Marie‐noëlle Patra, Anindita Ardhuin, Fabrice |
author_sort |
Hochet, Antoine |
title |
Time of Emergence for Altimetry‐Based Significant Wave Height Changes in the North Atlantic |
title_short |
Time of Emergence for Altimetry‐Based Significant Wave Height Changes in the North Atlantic |
title_full |
Time of Emergence for Altimetry‐Based Significant Wave Height Changes in the North Atlantic |
title_fullStr |
Time of Emergence for Altimetry‐Based Significant Wave Height Changes in the North Atlantic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Time of Emergence for Altimetry‐Based Significant Wave Height Changes in the North Atlantic |
title_sort |
time of emergence for altimetry‐based significant wave height changes in the north atlantic |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-04115904 https://hal.science/hal-04115904/document https://hal.science/hal-04115904/file/Hochet_GRL2023.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102348 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
ISSN: 0094-8276 EISSN: 1944-8007 Geophysical Research Letters https://hal.science/hal-04115904 Geophysical Research Letters, 2023, 50 (9), ⟨10.1029/2022GL102348⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2022GL102348 hal-04115904 https://hal.science/hal-04115904 https://hal.science/hal-04115904/document https://hal.science/hal-04115904/file/Hochet_GRL2023.pdf doi:10.1029/2022GL102348 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102348 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
50 |
container_issue |
9 |
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1796313922752479232 |