A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene ¹⁴C and CO₂ records: implications of data and model uncertainties
Radiocarbon production, solar activity, total solar irradiance (TSI) and solar-induced climate change are reconstructed for the Holocene (10 to 0 kyr BP), and TSI is predicted for the next centuries. The IntCal09/SHCal04 radiocarbon and ice core CO2 records, reconstructions of the geomagnetic dipole...
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ftunivbern:oai:boris.unibe.ch:47729 2023-08-20T04:07:13+02:00 A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene ¹⁴C and CO₂ records: implications of data and model uncertainties Roth, Raphael Joos, Fortunat 2013 application/pdf https://boris.unibe.ch/47729/1/cp-9-1879-2013.pdf https://boris.unibe.ch/47729/ eng eng Copernicus Publications https://boris.unibe.ch/47729/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Roth, Raphael; Joos, Fortunat (2013). A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene ¹⁴C and CO₂ records: implications of data and model uncertainties. Climate of the past, 9(4), pp. 1879-1909. Copernicus Publications 10.5194/cp-9-1879-2013 <http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1879-2013> 530 Physics 550 Earth sciences & geology info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion PeerReviewed 2013 ftunivbern https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1879-2013 2023-07-31T21:06:02Z Radiocarbon production, solar activity, total solar irradiance (TSI) and solar-induced climate change are reconstructed for the Holocene (10 to 0 kyr BP), and TSI is predicted for the next centuries. The IntCal09/SHCal04 radiocarbon and ice core CO2 records, reconstructions of the geomagnetic dipole, and instrumental data of solar activity are applied in the Bern3D-LPJ, a fully featured Earth system model of intermediate complexity including a 3-D dynamic ocean, ocean sediments, and a dynamic vegetation model, and in formulations linking radiocarbon production, the solar modulation potential, and TSI. Uncertainties are assessed using Monte Carlo simulations and bounding scenarios. Transient climate simulations span the past 21 thousand years, thereby considering the time lags and uncertainties associated with the last glacial termination. Our carbon-cycle-based modern estimate of radiocarbon production of 1.7 atoms cm−2 s−1 is lower than previously reported for the cosmogenic nuclide production model by Masarik and Beer (2009) and is more in-line with Kovaltsov et al. (2012). In contrast to earlier studies, periods of high solar activity were quite common not only in recent millennia, but throughout the Holocene. Notable deviations compared to earlier reconstructions are also found on decadal to centennial timescales. We show that earlier Holocene reconstructions, not accounting for the interhemispheric gradients in radiocarbon, are biased low. Solar activity is during 28% of the time higher than the modern average (650 MeV), but the absolute values remain weakly constrained due to uncertainties in the normalisation of the solar modulation to instrumental data. A recently published solar activity–TSI relationship yields small changes in Holocene TSI of the order of 1 W m−2 with a Maunder Minimum irradiance reduction of 0.85 ± 0.16 W m−2. Related solar-induced variations in global mean surface air temperature are simulated to be within 0.1 K. Autoregressive modelling suggests a declining trend of solar activity ... Article in Journal/Newspaper ice core BORIS (Bern Open Repository and Information System, University of Bern) Climate of the Past 9 4 1879 1909 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
BORIS (Bern Open Repository and Information System, University of Bern) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivbern |
language |
English |
topic |
530 Physics 550 Earth sciences & geology |
spellingShingle |
530 Physics 550 Earth sciences & geology Roth, Raphael Joos, Fortunat A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene ¹⁴C and CO₂ records: implications of data and model uncertainties |
topic_facet |
530 Physics 550 Earth sciences & geology |
description |
Radiocarbon production, solar activity, total solar irradiance (TSI) and solar-induced climate change are reconstructed for the Holocene (10 to 0 kyr BP), and TSI is predicted for the next centuries. The IntCal09/SHCal04 radiocarbon and ice core CO2 records, reconstructions of the geomagnetic dipole, and instrumental data of solar activity are applied in the Bern3D-LPJ, a fully featured Earth system model of intermediate complexity including a 3-D dynamic ocean, ocean sediments, and a dynamic vegetation model, and in formulations linking radiocarbon production, the solar modulation potential, and TSI. Uncertainties are assessed using Monte Carlo simulations and bounding scenarios. Transient climate simulations span the past 21 thousand years, thereby considering the time lags and uncertainties associated with the last glacial termination. Our carbon-cycle-based modern estimate of radiocarbon production of 1.7 atoms cm−2 s−1 is lower than previously reported for the cosmogenic nuclide production model by Masarik and Beer (2009) and is more in-line with Kovaltsov et al. (2012). In contrast to earlier studies, periods of high solar activity were quite common not only in recent millennia, but throughout the Holocene. Notable deviations compared to earlier reconstructions are also found on decadal to centennial timescales. We show that earlier Holocene reconstructions, not accounting for the interhemispheric gradients in radiocarbon, are biased low. Solar activity is during 28% of the time higher than the modern average (650 MeV), but the absolute values remain weakly constrained due to uncertainties in the normalisation of the solar modulation to instrumental data. A recently published solar activity–TSI relationship yields small changes in Holocene TSI of the order of 1 W m−2 with a Maunder Minimum irradiance reduction of 0.85 ± 0.16 W m−2. Related solar-induced variations in global mean surface air temperature are simulated to be within 0.1 K. Autoregressive modelling suggests a declining trend of solar activity ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Roth, Raphael Joos, Fortunat |
author_facet |
Roth, Raphael Joos, Fortunat |
author_sort |
Roth, Raphael |
title |
A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene ¹⁴C and CO₂ records: implications of data and model uncertainties |
title_short |
A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene ¹⁴C and CO₂ records: implications of data and model uncertainties |
title_full |
A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene ¹⁴C and CO₂ records: implications of data and model uncertainties |
title_fullStr |
A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene ¹⁴C and CO₂ records: implications of data and model uncertainties |
title_full_unstemmed |
A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene ¹⁴C and CO₂ records: implications of data and model uncertainties |
title_sort |
reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the holocene ¹⁴c and co₂ records: implications of data and model uncertainties |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://boris.unibe.ch/47729/1/cp-9-1879-2013.pdf https://boris.unibe.ch/47729/ |
genre |
ice core |
genre_facet |
ice core |
op_source |
Roth, Raphael; Joos, Fortunat (2013). A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene ¹⁴C and CO₂ records: implications of data and model uncertainties. Climate of the past, 9(4), pp. 1879-1909. Copernicus Publications 10.5194/cp-9-1879-2013 <http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1879-2013> |
op_relation |
https://boris.unibe.ch/47729/ |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1879-2013 |
container_title |
Climate of the Past |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1879 |
op_container_end_page |
1909 |
_version_ |
1774718688270745600 |