Climate and chemistry effects of a regional scale nuclear conflict
Previous studies have highlighted the severity of detrimental effects for life on earth after an assumed regionally limited nuclear war. These effects are caused by climatic, chemical and radiative changes persisting for up to one decade. However, so far only a very limited number of climate model s...
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ftunivbern:oai:boris.unibe.ch:39675 2023-08-20T04:09:46+02:00 Climate and chemistry effects of a regional scale nuclear conflict Stenke, A. Hoyle, C. R. Luo, B. Rozanov, E. Gröbner, J. Maag, L. Brönnimann, Stefan Peter, T. 2013-10-02 application/pdf https://boris.unibe.ch/39675/1/acp-13-9713-2013.pdf https://boris.unibe.ch/39675/ eng eng European Geosciences Union https://boris.unibe.ch/39675/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Stenke, A.; Hoyle, C. R.; Luo, B.; Rozanov, E.; Gröbner, J.; Maag, L.; Brönnimann, Stefan; Peter, T. (2013). Climate and chemistry effects of a regional scale nuclear conflict. Atmospheric chemistry and physics, 13(19), pp. 9713-9729. European Geosciences Union 10.5194/acp-13-9713-2013 <http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9713-2013> 910 Geography & travel info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion PeerReviewed 2013 ftunivbern https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9713-2013 2023-07-31T21:01:03Z Previous studies have highlighted the severity of detrimental effects for life on earth after an assumed regionally limited nuclear war. These effects are caused by climatic, chemical and radiative changes persisting for up to one decade. However, so far only a very limited number of climate model simulations have been performed, giving rise to the question how realistic previous computations have been. This study uses the coupled chemistry climate model (CCM) SOCOL, which belongs to a different family of CCMs than previously used, to investigate the consequences of such a hypothetical nuclear conflict. In accordance with previous studies, the present work assumes a scenario of a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan, each applying 50 warheads with an individual blasting power of 15 kt ("Hiroshima size") against the major population centers, resulting in the emission of tiny soot particles, which are generated in the firestorms expected in the aftermath of the detonations. Substantial uncertainties related to the calculation of likely soot emissions, particularly concerning assumptions of target fuel loading and targeting of weapons, have been addressed by simulating several scenarios, with soot emissions ranging from 1 to 12 Tg. Their high absorptivity with respect to solar radiation leads to a rapid self-lofting of the soot particles into the strato- and mesosphere within a few days after emission, where they remain for several years. Consequently, the model suggests earth's surface temperatures to drop by several degrees Celsius due to the shielding of solar irradiance by the soot, indicating a major global cooling. In addition, there is a substantial reduction of precipitation lasting 5 to 10 yr after the conflict, depending on the magnitude of the initial soot release. Extreme cold spells associated with an increase in sea ice formation are found during Northern Hemisphere winter, which expose the continental land masses of North America and Eurasia to a cooling of several degrees. In the ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice BORIS (Bern Open Repository and Information System, University of Bern) Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 13 19 9713 9729 |
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Open Polar |
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BORIS (Bern Open Repository and Information System, University of Bern) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivbern |
language |
English |
topic |
910 Geography & travel |
spellingShingle |
910 Geography & travel Stenke, A. Hoyle, C. R. Luo, B. Rozanov, E. Gröbner, J. Maag, L. Brönnimann, Stefan Peter, T. Climate and chemistry effects of a regional scale nuclear conflict |
topic_facet |
910 Geography & travel |
description |
Previous studies have highlighted the severity of detrimental effects for life on earth after an assumed regionally limited nuclear war. These effects are caused by climatic, chemical and radiative changes persisting for up to one decade. However, so far only a very limited number of climate model simulations have been performed, giving rise to the question how realistic previous computations have been. This study uses the coupled chemistry climate model (CCM) SOCOL, which belongs to a different family of CCMs than previously used, to investigate the consequences of such a hypothetical nuclear conflict. In accordance with previous studies, the present work assumes a scenario of a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan, each applying 50 warheads with an individual blasting power of 15 kt ("Hiroshima size") against the major population centers, resulting in the emission of tiny soot particles, which are generated in the firestorms expected in the aftermath of the detonations. Substantial uncertainties related to the calculation of likely soot emissions, particularly concerning assumptions of target fuel loading and targeting of weapons, have been addressed by simulating several scenarios, with soot emissions ranging from 1 to 12 Tg. Their high absorptivity with respect to solar radiation leads to a rapid self-lofting of the soot particles into the strato- and mesosphere within a few days after emission, where they remain for several years. Consequently, the model suggests earth's surface temperatures to drop by several degrees Celsius due to the shielding of solar irradiance by the soot, indicating a major global cooling. In addition, there is a substantial reduction of precipitation lasting 5 to 10 yr after the conflict, depending on the magnitude of the initial soot release. Extreme cold spells associated with an increase in sea ice formation are found during Northern Hemisphere winter, which expose the continental land masses of North America and Eurasia to a cooling of several degrees. In the ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Stenke, A. Hoyle, C. R. Luo, B. Rozanov, E. Gröbner, J. Maag, L. Brönnimann, Stefan Peter, T. |
author_facet |
Stenke, A. Hoyle, C. R. Luo, B. Rozanov, E. Gröbner, J. Maag, L. Brönnimann, Stefan Peter, T. |
author_sort |
Stenke, A. |
title |
Climate and chemistry effects of a regional scale nuclear conflict |
title_short |
Climate and chemistry effects of a regional scale nuclear conflict |
title_full |
Climate and chemistry effects of a regional scale nuclear conflict |
title_fullStr |
Climate and chemistry effects of a regional scale nuclear conflict |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate and chemistry effects of a regional scale nuclear conflict |
title_sort |
climate and chemistry effects of a regional scale nuclear conflict |
publisher |
European Geosciences Union |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://boris.unibe.ch/39675/1/acp-13-9713-2013.pdf https://boris.unibe.ch/39675/ |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_source |
Stenke, A.; Hoyle, C. R.; Luo, B.; Rozanov, E.; Gröbner, J.; Maag, L.; Brönnimann, Stefan; Peter, T. (2013). Climate and chemistry effects of a regional scale nuclear conflict. Atmospheric chemistry and physics, 13(19), pp. 9713-9729. European Geosciences Union 10.5194/acp-13-9713-2013 <http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9713-2013> |
op_relation |
https://boris.unibe.ch/39675/ |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-9713-2013 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
19 |
container_start_page |
9713 |
op_container_end_page |
9729 |
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