Assessment of Global Ocean Biogeochemistry Models for Ocean Carbon Sink Estimates in RECCAP2 and Recommendations for Future Studies
The ocean is a major carbon sink and takes up 25%–30% of the anthropogenically emitted CO2. A state-of-the-art method to quantify this sink are global ocean biogeochemistry models (GOBMs), but their simulated CO2 uptake differs between models and is systematically lower than estimates based on stati...
Published in: | Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems |
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American Geophysical Union
2024
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Online Access: | https://boris.unibe.ch/194339/1/J_Adv_Model_Earth_Syst_-_2024_-_Terhaar_-_Assessment_of_Global_Ocean_Biogeochemistry_Models_for_Ocean_Carbon_Sink_Estimates.pdf https://boris.unibe.ch/194339/ |
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ftunivbern:oai:boris.unibe.ch:194339 2024-04-21T08:12:17+00:00 Assessment of Global Ocean Biogeochemistry Models for Ocean Carbon Sink Estimates in RECCAP2 and Recommendations for Future Studies Terhaar, Jens Goris, Nadine Müller, Jens D. DeVries, Tim Gruber, Nicolas Hauck, Judith Perez, Fiz F. Séférian, Roland 2024 application/pdf https://boris.unibe.ch/194339/1/J_Adv_Model_Earth_Syst_-_2024_-_Terhaar_-_Assessment_of_Global_Ocean_Biogeochemistry_Models_for_Ocean_Carbon_Sink_Estimates.pdf https://boris.unibe.ch/194339/ eng eng American Geophysical Union https://boris.unibe.ch/194339/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Terhaar, Jens; Goris, Nadine; Müller, Jens D.; DeVries, Tim; Gruber, Nicolas; Hauck, Judith; Perez, Fiz F.; Séférian, Roland (2024). Assessment of Global Ocean Biogeochemistry Models for Ocean Carbon Sink Estimates in RECCAP2 and Recommendations for Future Studies. Journal of advances in modeling earth systems : JAMES, 16(3) American Geophysical Union 10.1029/2023MS003840 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2023MS003840> 530 Physics 550 Earth sciences & geology info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion PeerReviewed 2024 ftunivbern https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS003840 2024-03-27T15:06:35Z The ocean is a major carbon sink and takes up 25%–30% of the anthropogenically emitted CO2. A state-of-the-art method to quantify this sink are global ocean biogeochemistry models (GOBMs), but their simulated CO2 uptake differs between models and is systematically lower than estimates based on statistical methods using surface ocean pCO2 and interior ocean measurements. Here, we provide an in-depth evaluation of ocean carbon sink estimates from 1980 to 2018 from a GOBM ensemble. As sources of inter-model differences and ensemble-mean biases our study identifies (a) the model setup, such as the length of the spin-up, the starting date of the simulation, and carbon fluxes from rivers and into sediments, (b) the simulated ocean circulation, such as Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Southern Ocean mode and intermediate water formation, and (c) the simulated oceanic buffer capacity. Our analysis suggests that a late starting date and biases in the ocean circulation cause a too low anthropogenic CO2 uptake across the GOBM ensemble. Surface ocean biogeochemistry biases might also cause simulated anthropogenic fluxes to be too low, but the current setup prevents a robust assessment. For simulations of the ocean carbon sink, we recommend in the short-term to (a) start simulations at a common date before the industrialization and the associated atmospheric CO2 increase, (b) conduct a sufficiently long spin-up such that the GOBMs reach steady-state, and (c) provide key metrics for circulation, biogeochemistry, and the land-ocean interface. In the long-term, we recommend improving the representation of these metrics in the GOBMs. Article in Journal/Newspaper Southern Ocean BORIS (Bern Open Repository and Information System, University of Bern) Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 16 3 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
BORIS (Bern Open Repository and Information System, University of Bern) |
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ftunivbern |
language |
English |
topic |
530 Physics 550 Earth sciences & geology |
spellingShingle |
530 Physics 550 Earth sciences & geology Terhaar, Jens Goris, Nadine Müller, Jens D. DeVries, Tim Gruber, Nicolas Hauck, Judith Perez, Fiz F. Séférian, Roland Assessment of Global Ocean Biogeochemistry Models for Ocean Carbon Sink Estimates in RECCAP2 and Recommendations for Future Studies |
topic_facet |
530 Physics 550 Earth sciences & geology |
description |
The ocean is a major carbon sink and takes up 25%–30% of the anthropogenically emitted CO2. A state-of-the-art method to quantify this sink are global ocean biogeochemistry models (GOBMs), but their simulated CO2 uptake differs between models and is systematically lower than estimates based on statistical methods using surface ocean pCO2 and interior ocean measurements. Here, we provide an in-depth evaluation of ocean carbon sink estimates from 1980 to 2018 from a GOBM ensemble. As sources of inter-model differences and ensemble-mean biases our study identifies (a) the model setup, such as the length of the spin-up, the starting date of the simulation, and carbon fluxes from rivers and into sediments, (b) the simulated ocean circulation, such as Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Southern Ocean mode and intermediate water formation, and (c) the simulated oceanic buffer capacity. Our analysis suggests that a late starting date and biases in the ocean circulation cause a too low anthropogenic CO2 uptake across the GOBM ensemble. Surface ocean biogeochemistry biases might also cause simulated anthropogenic fluxes to be too low, but the current setup prevents a robust assessment. For simulations of the ocean carbon sink, we recommend in the short-term to (a) start simulations at a common date before the industrialization and the associated atmospheric CO2 increase, (b) conduct a sufficiently long spin-up such that the GOBMs reach steady-state, and (c) provide key metrics for circulation, biogeochemistry, and the land-ocean interface. In the long-term, we recommend improving the representation of these metrics in the GOBMs. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Terhaar, Jens Goris, Nadine Müller, Jens D. DeVries, Tim Gruber, Nicolas Hauck, Judith Perez, Fiz F. Séférian, Roland |
author_facet |
Terhaar, Jens Goris, Nadine Müller, Jens D. DeVries, Tim Gruber, Nicolas Hauck, Judith Perez, Fiz F. Séférian, Roland |
author_sort |
Terhaar, Jens |
title |
Assessment of Global Ocean Biogeochemistry Models for Ocean Carbon Sink Estimates in RECCAP2 and Recommendations for Future Studies |
title_short |
Assessment of Global Ocean Biogeochemistry Models for Ocean Carbon Sink Estimates in RECCAP2 and Recommendations for Future Studies |
title_full |
Assessment of Global Ocean Biogeochemistry Models for Ocean Carbon Sink Estimates in RECCAP2 and Recommendations for Future Studies |
title_fullStr |
Assessment of Global Ocean Biogeochemistry Models for Ocean Carbon Sink Estimates in RECCAP2 and Recommendations for Future Studies |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessment of Global Ocean Biogeochemistry Models for Ocean Carbon Sink Estimates in RECCAP2 and Recommendations for Future Studies |
title_sort |
assessment of global ocean biogeochemistry models for ocean carbon sink estimates in reccap2 and recommendations for future studies |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://boris.unibe.ch/194339/1/J_Adv_Model_Earth_Syst_-_2024_-_Terhaar_-_Assessment_of_Global_Ocean_Biogeochemistry_Models_for_Ocean_Carbon_Sink_Estimates.pdf https://boris.unibe.ch/194339/ |
genre |
Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Terhaar, Jens; Goris, Nadine; Müller, Jens D.; DeVries, Tim; Gruber, Nicolas; Hauck, Judith; Perez, Fiz F.; Séférian, Roland (2024). Assessment of Global Ocean Biogeochemistry Models for Ocean Carbon Sink Estimates in RECCAP2 and Recommendations for Future Studies. Journal of advances in modeling earth systems : JAMES, 16(3) American Geophysical Union 10.1029/2023MS003840 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2023MS003840> |
op_relation |
https://boris.unibe.ch/194339/ |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS003840 |
container_title |
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
3 |
_version_ |
1796932283111833600 |