The influence of modes of climate variability on the sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation.
Temporally clustered precipitation extremes can have catastrophic impacts. Therefore, understanding their drivers is paramount for risk assessment in current and future climates. Here, we model for each season 3-week extreme precipitation event counts with Poisson Generalized Linear Models and nine...
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ftunivbern:oai:boris.unibe.ch:166033 2023-08-20T04:06:55+02:00 The influence of modes of climate variability on the sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation. Tuel, Alexandre Martius, Olivia 2022-03-18 application/pdf https://boris.unibe.ch/166033/1/1-s2.0-S2589004222001250-main.pdf https://boris.unibe.ch/166033/ eng eng Elsevier https://boris.unibe.ch/166033/ info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Tuel, Alexandre; Martius, Olivia (2022). The influence of modes of climate variability on the sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation. iScience, 25(3), p. 103855. Elsevier 10.1016/j.isci.2022.103855 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2022.103855> 910 Geography & travel 550 Earth sciences & geology info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion PeerReviewed 2022 ftunivbern https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2022.103855 2023-07-31T22:12:17Z Temporally clustered precipitation extremes can have catastrophic impacts. Therefore, understanding their drivers is paramount for risk assessment in current and future climates. Here, we model for each season 3-week extreme precipitation event counts with Poisson Generalized Linear Models and nine major modes of climate variability as covariates. Model goodness-of-fit is highest in the tropics, particularly over the equatorial Pacific, the Maritime Continent, and East Africa, where ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the MJO are the major drivers of sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation. The IOD and MJO also matter over Southwest Asia during boreal fall and winter. In the Northern Hemisphere, the North Atlantic Oscillation impacts clustering west of the Iberian Peninsula and over Scandinavia and Greenland, and the Pacific North American pattern matters over the central/northern Pacific Ocean. Finally, our models show very little skill in the Southern Hemisphere, where temporal clustering is also less frequent. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation BORIS (Bern Open Repository and Information System, University of Bern) Greenland Indian Pacific iScience 25 3 103855 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
BORIS (Bern Open Repository and Information System, University of Bern) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivbern |
language |
English |
topic |
910 Geography & travel 550 Earth sciences & geology |
spellingShingle |
910 Geography & travel 550 Earth sciences & geology Tuel, Alexandre Martius, Olivia The influence of modes of climate variability on the sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation. |
topic_facet |
910 Geography & travel 550 Earth sciences & geology |
description |
Temporally clustered precipitation extremes can have catastrophic impacts. Therefore, understanding their drivers is paramount for risk assessment in current and future climates. Here, we model for each season 3-week extreme precipitation event counts with Poisson Generalized Linear Models and nine major modes of climate variability as covariates. Model goodness-of-fit is highest in the tropics, particularly over the equatorial Pacific, the Maritime Continent, and East Africa, where ENSO, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the MJO are the major drivers of sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation. The IOD and MJO also matter over Southwest Asia during boreal fall and winter. In the Northern Hemisphere, the North Atlantic Oscillation impacts clustering west of the Iberian Peninsula and over Scandinavia and Greenland, and the Pacific North American pattern matters over the central/northern Pacific Ocean. Finally, our models show very little skill in the Southern Hemisphere, where temporal clustering is also less frequent. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Tuel, Alexandre Martius, Olivia |
author_facet |
Tuel, Alexandre Martius, Olivia |
author_sort |
Tuel, Alexandre |
title |
The influence of modes of climate variability on the sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation. |
title_short |
The influence of modes of climate variability on the sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation. |
title_full |
The influence of modes of climate variability on the sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation. |
title_fullStr |
The influence of modes of climate variability on the sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation. |
title_full_unstemmed |
The influence of modes of climate variability on the sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation. |
title_sort |
influence of modes of climate variability on the sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation. |
publisher |
Elsevier |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://boris.unibe.ch/166033/1/1-s2.0-S2589004222001250-main.pdf https://boris.unibe.ch/166033/ |
geographic |
Greenland Indian Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Greenland Indian Pacific |
genre |
Greenland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
Greenland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Tuel, Alexandre; Martius, Olivia (2022). The influence of modes of climate variability on the sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation. iScience, 25(3), p. 103855. Elsevier 10.1016/j.isci.2022.103855 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2022.103855> |
op_relation |
https://boris.unibe.ch/166033/ |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2022.103855 |
container_title |
iScience |
container_volume |
25 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
103855 |
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1774718286323253248 |