An evaluation of model output statistics for subseasonal streamflow forecasting in European catchments
AbstractSubseasonal and seasonal forecasts of the atmosphere, oceans, sea ice, or land surfaces often rely on earth system model (ESM) simulations. While the most recent generation of ESMs simulates runoff per land surface grid cell operationally, it does not typically simulate river streamflow dire...
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American Meteorological Society
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Online Access: | https://boris.unibe.ch/131902/1/article3.pdf https://boris.unibe.ch/131902/ |
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ftunivbern:oai:boris.unibe.ch:131902 2023-08-20T04:09:45+02:00 An evaluation of model output statistics for subseasonal streamflow forecasting in European catchments Schick, Simon Rössler, Ole Kristen Weingartner, Rolf 2019-06-12 application/pdf https://boris.unibe.ch/131902/1/article3.pdf https://boris.unibe.ch/131902/ eng eng American Meteorological Society https://boris.unibe.ch/131902/ info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Schick, Simon; Rössler, Ole Kristen; Weingartner, Rolf (2019). An evaluation of model output statistics for subseasonal streamflow forecasting in European catchments. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 20(7), pp. 1399-1416. American Meteorological Society 10.1175/JHM-D-18-0195.1 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0195.1> 910 Geography & travel 550 Earth sciences & geology info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion PeerReviewed 2019 ftunivbern https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0195.1 2023-07-31T21:52:58Z AbstractSubseasonal and seasonal forecasts of the atmosphere, oceans, sea ice, or land surfaces often rely on earth system model (ESM) simulations. While the most recent generation of ESMs simulates runoff per land surface grid cell operationally, it does not typically simulate river streamflow directly. Here, we apply the model output statistics (MOS) method to the hindcast archive of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Linear models are tested that regress observed river streamflow on surface runoff, subsurface runoff, total runoff, precipitation, and surface air temperature simulated by ECMWF's forecast systems S4 and SEAS5. In addition, the pool of candidate predictors contains observed precipitation and surface air temperature preceding the date of prediction. The experiment is conducted for 16 European catchments in the period 1981-2006 and focuses on monthly average streamflow at lead times of 0 and 20 days. The results show that skill against the streamflow climatology is frequently absent and varies considerably between predictor combinations, catchments, and seasons. Using streamflow persistence as a benchmark model further deteriorates skill. This is most pronounced for a catchment that features lakes, which extend to about 14% of the catchment area. On average, however, the predictor combinations using the ESM runoff simulations tend to perform best. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice BORIS (Bern Open Repository and Information System, University of Bern) Journal of Hydrometeorology 20 7 1399 1416 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
BORIS (Bern Open Repository and Information System, University of Bern) |
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ftunivbern |
language |
English |
topic |
910 Geography & travel 550 Earth sciences & geology |
spellingShingle |
910 Geography & travel 550 Earth sciences & geology Schick, Simon Rössler, Ole Kristen Weingartner, Rolf An evaluation of model output statistics for subseasonal streamflow forecasting in European catchments |
topic_facet |
910 Geography & travel 550 Earth sciences & geology |
description |
AbstractSubseasonal and seasonal forecasts of the atmosphere, oceans, sea ice, or land surfaces often rely on earth system model (ESM) simulations. While the most recent generation of ESMs simulates runoff per land surface grid cell operationally, it does not typically simulate river streamflow directly. Here, we apply the model output statistics (MOS) method to the hindcast archive of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Linear models are tested that regress observed river streamflow on surface runoff, subsurface runoff, total runoff, precipitation, and surface air temperature simulated by ECMWF's forecast systems S4 and SEAS5. In addition, the pool of candidate predictors contains observed precipitation and surface air temperature preceding the date of prediction. The experiment is conducted for 16 European catchments in the period 1981-2006 and focuses on monthly average streamflow at lead times of 0 and 20 days. The results show that skill against the streamflow climatology is frequently absent and varies considerably between predictor combinations, catchments, and seasons. Using streamflow persistence as a benchmark model further deteriorates skill. This is most pronounced for a catchment that features lakes, which extend to about 14% of the catchment area. On average, however, the predictor combinations using the ESM runoff simulations tend to perform best. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Schick, Simon Rössler, Ole Kristen Weingartner, Rolf |
author_facet |
Schick, Simon Rössler, Ole Kristen Weingartner, Rolf |
author_sort |
Schick, Simon |
title |
An evaluation of model output statistics for subseasonal streamflow forecasting in European catchments |
title_short |
An evaluation of model output statistics for subseasonal streamflow forecasting in European catchments |
title_full |
An evaluation of model output statistics for subseasonal streamflow forecasting in European catchments |
title_fullStr |
An evaluation of model output statistics for subseasonal streamflow forecasting in European catchments |
title_full_unstemmed |
An evaluation of model output statistics for subseasonal streamflow forecasting in European catchments |
title_sort |
evaluation of model output statistics for subseasonal streamflow forecasting in european catchments |
publisher |
American Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://boris.unibe.ch/131902/1/article3.pdf https://boris.unibe.ch/131902/ |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_source |
Schick, Simon; Rössler, Ole Kristen; Weingartner, Rolf (2019). An evaluation of model output statistics for subseasonal streamflow forecasting in European catchments. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 20(7), pp. 1399-1416. American Meteorological Society 10.1175/JHM-D-18-0195.1 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0195.1> |
op_relation |
https://boris.unibe.ch/131902/ |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0195.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Hydrometeorology |
container_volume |
20 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
1399 |
op_container_end_page |
1416 |
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1774723411770081280 |