The Climatological Impact of Recurving North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones on Downstream Extreme Precipitation Events
This study provides the first climatological assessment of the impact of recurving North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) on downstream precipitation extremes. The response is evaluated based on time-lagged composites for 146 recurving TCs between 1979 and 2013 and quantified by the area affected by...
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ftunivbern:oai:boris.unibe.ch:130379 2023-08-20T04:08:14+02:00 The Climatological Impact of Recurving North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones on Downstream Extreme Precipitation Events Pohorsky, Roman Röthlisberger, Matthias Grams, Christian M. Riboldi, Jacopo Martius, Olivia 2019-02-08 application/pdf https://boris.unibe.ch/130379/1/MWR-D-18-0195.1.pdf https://boris.unibe.ch/130379/ eng eng American Meteorological Society https://boris.unibe.ch/130379/ info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Pohorsky, Roman; Röthlisberger, Matthias; Grams, Christian M.; Riboldi, Jacopo; Martius, Olivia (2019). The Climatological Impact of Recurving North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones on Downstream Extreme Precipitation Events. Monthly Weather Review, 147(5), pp. 1513-1532. American Meteorological Society 10.1175/MWR-D-18-0195.1 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-18-0195.1> 550 Earth sciences & geology 910 Geography & travel info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion PeerReviewed 2019 ftunivbern https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-18-0195.1 2023-07-31T21:52:12Z This study provides the first climatological assessment of the impact of recurving North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) on downstream precipitation extremes. The response is evaluated based on time-lagged composites for 146 recurving TCs between 1979 and 2013 and quantified by the area affected by precipitation extremes (PEA) in a domain shifted relative to the TC–jet interaction location, which often encompasses major parts of Europe. The statistical significance of the PEA response to the TCs is determined using a novel bootstrapping technique based on flow analogs. A statistically significant increase in PEA is found between lags +42 and +90 h after the TC–jet interaction, with a doubling of the PEA compared to analog cases without recurving TCs. A K-means clustering applied to the natural logarithm of potential vorticity fields [ln(PV)] around the TC–jet interaction points reveals four main flow configurations of North Atlantic TC–jet interactions. Two main mechanisms by which recurving TCs can foster precipitation extremes farther downstream emerge: 1) an “atmospheric river–like” mechanism, with anomalously high integrated vapor transport (IVT) downstream of the recurving TCs and 2) a “downstream-development” mechanism, with anomalously high IVT ahead of a downstream trough. Hereby, the analog bootstrapping technique separates the impact of the TC from that of the midlatitude flow’s natural evolution on the PEA formation. This analysis reveals an unequivocal effect of the TCs for the atmospheric river–like cases, while for the downstream-development cases, a substantial increase in PEA is also found in the analogs without a TC. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic BORIS (Bern Open Repository and Information System, University of Bern) Monthly Weather Review 147 5 1513 1532 |
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collection |
BORIS (Bern Open Repository and Information System, University of Bern) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivbern |
language |
English |
topic |
550 Earth sciences & geology 910 Geography & travel |
spellingShingle |
550 Earth sciences & geology 910 Geography & travel Pohorsky, Roman Röthlisberger, Matthias Grams, Christian M. Riboldi, Jacopo Martius, Olivia The Climatological Impact of Recurving North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones on Downstream Extreme Precipitation Events |
topic_facet |
550 Earth sciences & geology 910 Geography & travel |
description |
This study provides the first climatological assessment of the impact of recurving North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) on downstream precipitation extremes. The response is evaluated based on time-lagged composites for 146 recurving TCs between 1979 and 2013 and quantified by the area affected by precipitation extremes (PEA) in a domain shifted relative to the TC–jet interaction location, which often encompasses major parts of Europe. The statistical significance of the PEA response to the TCs is determined using a novel bootstrapping technique based on flow analogs. A statistically significant increase in PEA is found between lags +42 and +90 h after the TC–jet interaction, with a doubling of the PEA compared to analog cases without recurving TCs. A K-means clustering applied to the natural logarithm of potential vorticity fields [ln(PV)] around the TC–jet interaction points reveals four main flow configurations of North Atlantic TC–jet interactions. Two main mechanisms by which recurving TCs can foster precipitation extremes farther downstream emerge: 1) an “atmospheric river–like” mechanism, with anomalously high integrated vapor transport (IVT) downstream of the recurving TCs and 2) a “downstream-development” mechanism, with anomalously high IVT ahead of a downstream trough. Hereby, the analog bootstrapping technique separates the impact of the TC from that of the midlatitude flow’s natural evolution on the PEA formation. This analysis reveals an unequivocal effect of the TCs for the atmospheric river–like cases, while for the downstream-development cases, a substantial increase in PEA is also found in the analogs without a TC. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Pohorsky, Roman Röthlisberger, Matthias Grams, Christian M. Riboldi, Jacopo Martius, Olivia |
author_facet |
Pohorsky, Roman Röthlisberger, Matthias Grams, Christian M. Riboldi, Jacopo Martius, Olivia |
author_sort |
Pohorsky, Roman |
title |
The Climatological Impact of Recurving North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones on Downstream Extreme Precipitation Events |
title_short |
The Climatological Impact of Recurving North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones on Downstream Extreme Precipitation Events |
title_full |
The Climatological Impact of Recurving North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones on Downstream Extreme Precipitation Events |
title_fullStr |
The Climatological Impact of Recurving North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones on Downstream Extreme Precipitation Events |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Climatological Impact of Recurving North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones on Downstream Extreme Precipitation Events |
title_sort |
climatological impact of recurving north atlantic tropical cyclones on downstream extreme precipitation events |
publisher |
American Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://boris.unibe.ch/130379/1/MWR-D-18-0195.1.pdf https://boris.unibe.ch/130379/ |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Pohorsky, Roman; Röthlisberger, Matthias; Grams, Christian M.; Riboldi, Jacopo; Martius, Olivia (2019). The Climatological Impact of Recurving North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones on Downstream Extreme Precipitation Events. Monthly Weather Review, 147(5), pp. 1513-1532. American Meteorological Society 10.1175/MWR-D-18-0195.1 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-18-0195.1> |
op_relation |
https://boris.unibe.ch/130379/ |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-18-0195.1 |
container_title |
Monthly Weather Review |
container_volume |
147 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
1513 |
op_container_end_page |
1532 |
_version_ |
1774720402371641344 |