Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond
Over the past 3.5 million years, there have been several intervals when climate conditions were warmer than during the pre-industrial Holocene. Although past intervals of warming were forced differently than future anthropogenic change, such periods can provide insights into potential future climate...
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ftunivbern:oai:boris.unibe.ch:118308 2023-08-20T04:00:42+02:00 Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond Fischer, Hubertus Meissner, Katrin J. Mix, Alan C. Abram, Nerilie J. Austermann, Jacqueline Brovkin, Victor Capron, Emilie Colombaroli, Daniele Daniau, Anne-Laure Dyez, Kelsey A. Felis, Thomas Finkelstein, Sarah A. Jaccard, Samuel McClymont, Erin L. Rovere, Alessio Sutter, Johannes Wolff, Eric W. Affolter, Stéphane Bakker, Pepijn Ballesteros-Cánovas, Juan Antonio Barbante, Carlo Caley, Thibaut Carlson, Anders E. Churakova, Olga Cortese, Giuseppe Cumming, Brian F. Davis, Basil A. S. de Vernal, Anne Emile-Geay, Julien Fritz, Sherilyn C. Gierz, Paul Gottschalk, Julia Holloway, Max D. Joos, Fortunat Kucera, Michal Loutre, Marie-France Lunt, Daniel J. Marcisz, Katarzyna Marlon, Jennifer R. Martinez, Philippe Masson-Delmotte, Valerie Nehrbass-Ahles, Christoph Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. Raible, Christoph Risebrobakken, Bjørg Sánchez Goñi, María F. Arrigo, Jennifer Saleem Sarnthein, Michael Sjolte, Jesper Stocker, Thomas F. Velasquez Álvárez, Patricio A. Tinner, Willy Valdes, Paul J. Vogel, Hendrik Wanner, Heinz Yan, Qing Yu, Zicheng Ziegler, Martin Zhou, Liping 2018 application/pdf https://boris.unibe.ch/118308/7/2018_NatGeosci_11_474.pdf https://boris.unibe.ch/118308/ eng eng Nature Publishing Group https://boris.unibe.ch/118308/ info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Fischer, Hubertus; Meissner, Katrin J.; Mix, Alan C.; Abram, Nerilie J.; Austermann, Jacqueline; Brovkin, Victor; Capron, Emilie; Colombaroli, Daniele; Daniau, Anne-Laure; Dyez, Kelsey A.; Felis, Thomas; Finkelstein, Sarah A.; Jaccard, Samuel; McClymont, Erin L.; Rovere, Alessio; Sutter, Johannes; Wolff, Eric W.; Affolter, Stéphane; Bakker, Pepijn; Ballesteros-Cánovas, Juan Antonio; . (2018). Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond. Nature geoscience, 11(7), pp. 474-485. Nature Publishing Group 10.1038/s41561-018-0146-0 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0146-0> 550 Earth sciences & geology 530 Physics 580 Plants (Botany) info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion PeerReviewed 2018 ftunivbern https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0146-0 2023-07-31T21:45:22Z Over the past 3.5 million years, there have been several intervals when climate conditions were warmer than during the pre-industrial Holocene. Although past intervals of warming were forced differently than future anthropogenic change, such periods can provide insights into potential future climate impacts and ecosystem feedbacks, especially over centennial-to-millennial timescales that are often not covered by climate model simulations. Our observation-based synthesis of the understanding of past intervals with temperatures within the range of projected future warming suggests that there is a low risk of runaway greenhouse gas feedbacks for global warming of no more than 2 °C. However, substantial regional environmental impacts can occur. A global average warming of 1–2 °C with strong polar amplification has, in the past, been accompanied by significant shifts in climate zones and the spatial distribution of land and ocean ecosystems. Sustained warming at this level has also led to substantial reductions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, with sea-level increases of at least several metres on millennial timescales. Comparison of palaeo observations with climate model results suggests that, due to the lack of certain feedback processes, model-based climate projections may underestimate long-term warming in response to future radiative forcing by as much as a factor of two, and thus may also underestimate centennial-to-millennial-scale sea-level rise. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Greenland BORIS (Bern Open Repository and Information System, University of Bern) Antarctic Greenland Nature Geoscience 11 7 474 485 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
BORIS (Bern Open Repository and Information System, University of Bern) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivbern |
language |
English |
topic |
550 Earth sciences & geology 530 Physics 580 Plants (Botany) |
spellingShingle |
550 Earth sciences & geology 530 Physics 580 Plants (Botany) Fischer, Hubertus Meissner, Katrin J. Mix, Alan C. Abram, Nerilie J. Austermann, Jacqueline Brovkin, Victor Capron, Emilie Colombaroli, Daniele Daniau, Anne-Laure Dyez, Kelsey A. Felis, Thomas Finkelstein, Sarah A. Jaccard, Samuel McClymont, Erin L. Rovere, Alessio Sutter, Johannes Wolff, Eric W. Affolter, Stéphane Bakker, Pepijn Ballesteros-Cánovas, Juan Antonio Barbante, Carlo Caley, Thibaut Carlson, Anders E. Churakova, Olga Cortese, Giuseppe Cumming, Brian F. Davis, Basil A. S. de Vernal, Anne Emile-Geay, Julien Fritz, Sherilyn C. Gierz, Paul Gottschalk, Julia Holloway, Max D. Joos, Fortunat Kucera, Michal Loutre, Marie-France Lunt, Daniel J. Marcisz, Katarzyna Marlon, Jennifer R. Martinez, Philippe Masson-Delmotte, Valerie Nehrbass-Ahles, Christoph Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. Raible, Christoph Risebrobakken, Bjørg Sánchez Goñi, María F. Arrigo, Jennifer Saleem Sarnthein, Michael Sjolte, Jesper Stocker, Thomas F. Velasquez Álvárez, Patricio A. Tinner, Willy Valdes, Paul J. Vogel, Hendrik Wanner, Heinz Yan, Qing Yu, Zicheng Ziegler, Martin Zhou, Liping Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond |
topic_facet |
550 Earth sciences & geology 530 Physics 580 Plants (Botany) |
description |
Over the past 3.5 million years, there have been several intervals when climate conditions were warmer than during the pre-industrial Holocene. Although past intervals of warming were forced differently than future anthropogenic change, such periods can provide insights into potential future climate impacts and ecosystem feedbacks, especially over centennial-to-millennial timescales that are often not covered by climate model simulations. Our observation-based synthesis of the understanding of past intervals with temperatures within the range of projected future warming suggests that there is a low risk of runaway greenhouse gas feedbacks for global warming of no more than 2 °C. However, substantial regional environmental impacts can occur. A global average warming of 1–2 °C with strong polar amplification has, in the past, been accompanied by significant shifts in climate zones and the spatial distribution of land and ocean ecosystems. Sustained warming at this level has also led to substantial reductions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, with sea-level increases of at least several metres on millennial timescales. Comparison of palaeo observations with climate model results suggests that, due to the lack of certain feedback processes, model-based climate projections may underestimate long-term warming in response to future radiative forcing by as much as a factor of two, and thus may also underestimate centennial-to-millennial-scale sea-level rise. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Fischer, Hubertus Meissner, Katrin J. Mix, Alan C. Abram, Nerilie J. Austermann, Jacqueline Brovkin, Victor Capron, Emilie Colombaroli, Daniele Daniau, Anne-Laure Dyez, Kelsey A. Felis, Thomas Finkelstein, Sarah A. Jaccard, Samuel McClymont, Erin L. Rovere, Alessio Sutter, Johannes Wolff, Eric W. Affolter, Stéphane Bakker, Pepijn Ballesteros-Cánovas, Juan Antonio Barbante, Carlo Caley, Thibaut Carlson, Anders E. Churakova, Olga Cortese, Giuseppe Cumming, Brian F. Davis, Basil A. S. de Vernal, Anne Emile-Geay, Julien Fritz, Sherilyn C. Gierz, Paul Gottschalk, Julia Holloway, Max D. Joos, Fortunat Kucera, Michal Loutre, Marie-France Lunt, Daniel J. Marcisz, Katarzyna Marlon, Jennifer R. Martinez, Philippe Masson-Delmotte, Valerie Nehrbass-Ahles, Christoph Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. Raible, Christoph Risebrobakken, Bjørg Sánchez Goñi, María F. Arrigo, Jennifer Saleem Sarnthein, Michael Sjolte, Jesper Stocker, Thomas F. Velasquez Álvárez, Patricio A. Tinner, Willy Valdes, Paul J. Vogel, Hendrik Wanner, Heinz Yan, Qing Yu, Zicheng Ziegler, Martin Zhou, Liping |
author_facet |
Fischer, Hubertus Meissner, Katrin J. Mix, Alan C. Abram, Nerilie J. Austermann, Jacqueline Brovkin, Victor Capron, Emilie Colombaroli, Daniele Daniau, Anne-Laure Dyez, Kelsey A. Felis, Thomas Finkelstein, Sarah A. Jaccard, Samuel McClymont, Erin L. Rovere, Alessio Sutter, Johannes Wolff, Eric W. Affolter, Stéphane Bakker, Pepijn Ballesteros-Cánovas, Juan Antonio Barbante, Carlo Caley, Thibaut Carlson, Anders E. Churakova, Olga Cortese, Giuseppe Cumming, Brian F. Davis, Basil A. S. de Vernal, Anne Emile-Geay, Julien Fritz, Sherilyn C. Gierz, Paul Gottschalk, Julia Holloway, Max D. Joos, Fortunat Kucera, Michal Loutre, Marie-France Lunt, Daniel J. Marcisz, Katarzyna Marlon, Jennifer R. Martinez, Philippe Masson-Delmotte, Valerie Nehrbass-Ahles, Christoph Otto-Bliesner, Bette L. Raible, Christoph Risebrobakken, Bjørg Sánchez Goñi, María F. Arrigo, Jennifer Saleem Sarnthein, Michael Sjolte, Jesper Stocker, Thomas F. Velasquez Álvárez, Patricio A. Tinner, Willy Valdes, Paul J. Vogel, Hendrik Wanner, Heinz Yan, Qing Yu, Zicheng Ziegler, Martin Zhou, Liping |
author_sort |
Fischer, Hubertus |
title |
Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond |
title_short |
Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond |
title_full |
Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond |
title_fullStr |
Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond |
title_full_unstemmed |
Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond |
title_sort |
palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °c anthropogenic warming and beyond |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://boris.unibe.ch/118308/7/2018_NatGeosci_11_474.pdf https://boris.unibe.ch/118308/ |
geographic |
Antarctic Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Greenland |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Greenland |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Greenland |
op_source |
Fischer, Hubertus; Meissner, Katrin J.; Mix, Alan C.; Abram, Nerilie J.; Austermann, Jacqueline; Brovkin, Victor; Capron, Emilie; Colombaroli, Daniele; Daniau, Anne-Laure; Dyez, Kelsey A.; Felis, Thomas; Finkelstein, Sarah A.; Jaccard, Samuel; McClymont, Erin L.; Rovere, Alessio; Sutter, Johannes; Wolff, Eric W.; Affolter, Stéphane; Bakker, Pepijn; Ballesteros-Cánovas, Juan Antonio; . (2018). Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond. Nature geoscience, 11(7), pp. 474-485. Nature Publishing Group 10.1038/s41561-018-0146-0 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0146-0> |
op_relation |
https://boris.unibe.ch/118308/ |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-018-0146-0 |
container_title |
Nature Geoscience |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
474 |
op_container_end_page |
485 |
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1774719839824248832 |