Long-term surface pCO2 trends from observations and models
We estimate regional long-term surface ocean pCO2 growth rates using all available underway and bottled biogeochemistry data collected over the past four decades. These observed regional trends are compared with those simulated by five state-of-the-art Earth system models over the historical period....
Published in: | Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology |
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Language: | English |
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1956/9764 https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusb.v66.23083 |
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ftunivbergen:oai:bora.uib.no:1956/9764 2023-05-15T17:32:33+02:00 Long-term surface pCO2 trends from observations and models Tjiputra, Jerry Olsen, Are Bopp, Laurent Lenton, Andrew Pfeil, Benjamin Roy, Tilla Segschneider, Joachim Totterdell, Ian Heinze, Christoph 2015-04-01T10:11:45Z application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/1956/9764 https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusb.v66.23083 eng eng Co-Action Publishing The International Meteorological Institute in Stockholm NorStore: NS2980K Norges forskningsråd: EARTHCLIM 207711/E10 Notur: NN2980K EU: CARBOCHANGE 264879 NorStore: NS2345K Notur: NN2345K urn:issn:0280-6509 https://hdl.handle.net/1956/9764 https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusb.v66.23083 cristin:1134509 Attribution CC BY http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Copyright 2014 J. F. Tjiputra et al. 23083 Tellus. Series B, Chemical and physical meteorology 66 surface pCO2 ocean CO2 sinks Earth system models CMIP5 projections ocean biogeochemistry VDP::Mathematics and natural scienses: 400::Geosciences: 450::Meteorology: 453 VDP::Mathematics and natural scienses: 400::Geosciences: 450::Oceanography: 452 VDP::Matematikk og naturvitenskap: 400::Geofag: 450::Meteorologi: 453 VDP::Matematikk og naturvitenskap: 400::Geofag: 450::Oseanografi: 452 Peer reviewed Journal article 2015 ftunivbergen https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusb.v66.23083 2023-03-14T17:40:36Z We estimate regional long-term surface ocean pCO2 growth rates using all available underway and bottled biogeochemistry data collected over the past four decades. These observed regional trends are compared with those simulated by five state-of-the-art Earth system models over the historical period. Oceanic pCO2 growth rates faster than the atmospheric growth rates indicate decreasing atmospheric CO2 uptake, while ocean pCO2 growth rates slower than the atmospheric growth rates indicate increasing atmospheric CO2 uptake. Aside from the western subpolar North Pacific and the subtropical North Atlantic, our analysis indicates that the current observation-based basin-scale trends may be underestimated, indicating that more observations are needed to determine the trends in these regions. Encouragingly, good agreement between the simulated and observed pCO2 trends is found when the simulated fields are subsampled with the observational coverage. In agreement with observations, we see that the simulated pCO2 trends are primarily associated with the increase in surface dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) associated with atmospheric carbon uptake, and in part by warming of the sea surface. Under the RCP8.5 future scenario, DIC continues to be the dominant driver of pCO2 trends, with little change in the relative contribution of SST. However, the changes in the hydrological cycle play an increasingly important role. For the contemporary (1970–2011) period, the simulated regional pCO2 trends are lower than the atmospheric growth rate over 90% of the ocean. However, by year 2100 more than 40% of the surface ocean area has a higher oceanic pCO2 trend than the atmosphere, implying a reduction in the atmospheric CO2 uptake rate. The fastest pCO2 growth rates are projected for the subpolar North Atlantic, while the high-latitude Southern Ocean and eastern equatorial Pacific have the weakest growth rates, remaining below the atmospheric pCO2 growth rate. Our work also highlights the importance and need for a sustained long-term ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Southern Ocean University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) Pacific Southern Ocean Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology 66 1 23083 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivbergen |
language |
English |
topic |
surface pCO2 ocean CO2 sinks Earth system models CMIP5 projections ocean biogeochemistry VDP::Mathematics and natural scienses: 400::Geosciences: 450::Meteorology: 453 VDP::Mathematics and natural scienses: 400::Geosciences: 450::Oceanography: 452 VDP::Matematikk og naturvitenskap: 400::Geofag: 450::Meteorologi: 453 VDP::Matematikk og naturvitenskap: 400::Geofag: 450::Oseanografi: 452 |
spellingShingle |
surface pCO2 ocean CO2 sinks Earth system models CMIP5 projections ocean biogeochemistry VDP::Mathematics and natural scienses: 400::Geosciences: 450::Meteorology: 453 VDP::Mathematics and natural scienses: 400::Geosciences: 450::Oceanography: 452 VDP::Matematikk og naturvitenskap: 400::Geofag: 450::Meteorologi: 453 VDP::Matematikk og naturvitenskap: 400::Geofag: 450::Oseanografi: 452 Tjiputra, Jerry Olsen, Are Bopp, Laurent Lenton, Andrew Pfeil, Benjamin Roy, Tilla Segschneider, Joachim Totterdell, Ian Heinze, Christoph Long-term surface pCO2 trends from observations and models |
topic_facet |
surface pCO2 ocean CO2 sinks Earth system models CMIP5 projections ocean biogeochemistry VDP::Mathematics and natural scienses: 400::Geosciences: 450::Meteorology: 453 VDP::Mathematics and natural scienses: 400::Geosciences: 450::Oceanography: 452 VDP::Matematikk og naturvitenskap: 400::Geofag: 450::Meteorologi: 453 VDP::Matematikk og naturvitenskap: 400::Geofag: 450::Oseanografi: 452 |
description |
We estimate regional long-term surface ocean pCO2 growth rates using all available underway and bottled biogeochemistry data collected over the past four decades. These observed regional trends are compared with those simulated by five state-of-the-art Earth system models over the historical period. Oceanic pCO2 growth rates faster than the atmospheric growth rates indicate decreasing atmospheric CO2 uptake, while ocean pCO2 growth rates slower than the atmospheric growth rates indicate increasing atmospheric CO2 uptake. Aside from the western subpolar North Pacific and the subtropical North Atlantic, our analysis indicates that the current observation-based basin-scale trends may be underestimated, indicating that more observations are needed to determine the trends in these regions. Encouragingly, good agreement between the simulated and observed pCO2 trends is found when the simulated fields are subsampled with the observational coverage. In agreement with observations, we see that the simulated pCO2 trends are primarily associated with the increase in surface dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) associated with atmospheric carbon uptake, and in part by warming of the sea surface. Under the RCP8.5 future scenario, DIC continues to be the dominant driver of pCO2 trends, with little change in the relative contribution of SST. However, the changes in the hydrological cycle play an increasingly important role. For the contemporary (1970–2011) period, the simulated regional pCO2 trends are lower than the atmospheric growth rate over 90% of the ocean. However, by year 2100 more than 40% of the surface ocean area has a higher oceanic pCO2 trend than the atmosphere, implying a reduction in the atmospheric CO2 uptake rate. The fastest pCO2 growth rates are projected for the subpolar North Atlantic, while the high-latitude Southern Ocean and eastern equatorial Pacific have the weakest growth rates, remaining below the atmospheric pCO2 growth rate. Our work also highlights the importance and need for a sustained long-term ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Tjiputra, Jerry Olsen, Are Bopp, Laurent Lenton, Andrew Pfeil, Benjamin Roy, Tilla Segschneider, Joachim Totterdell, Ian Heinze, Christoph |
author_facet |
Tjiputra, Jerry Olsen, Are Bopp, Laurent Lenton, Andrew Pfeil, Benjamin Roy, Tilla Segschneider, Joachim Totterdell, Ian Heinze, Christoph |
author_sort |
Tjiputra, Jerry |
title |
Long-term surface pCO2 trends from observations and models |
title_short |
Long-term surface pCO2 trends from observations and models |
title_full |
Long-term surface pCO2 trends from observations and models |
title_fullStr |
Long-term surface pCO2 trends from observations and models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Long-term surface pCO2 trends from observations and models |
title_sort |
long-term surface pco2 trends from observations and models |
publisher |
Co-Action Publishing |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/1956/9764 https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusb.v66.23083 |
geographic |
Pacific Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Pacific Southern Ocean |
genre |
North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
op_source |
23083 Tellus. Series B, Chemical and physical meteorology 66 |
op_relation |
NorStore: NS2980K Norges forskningsråd: EARTHCLIM 207711/E10 Notur: NN2980K EU: CARBOCHANGE 264879 NorStore: NS2345K Notur: NN2345K urn:issn:0280-6509 https://hdl.handle.net/1956/9764 https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusb.v66.23083 cristin:1134509 |
op_rights |
Attribution CC BY http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Copyright 2014 J. F. Tjiputra et al. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusb.v66.23083 |
container_title |
Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology |
container_volume |
66 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
23083 |
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1766130728807956480 |