Inadequate risk assessments – A study on worst-case scenarios related to petroleum exploitation in the Lofoten area
Heated debates are currently taking place on whether to open the area of Lofoten and Vesterålen in Northern Norway for petroleum production. Seismic explorations in this area have indicated promising petroleum resources. The area is known for its unique landscape and as a key spawning and nursery ar...
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Language: | English |
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1956/9689 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2013.07.008 |
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ftunivbergen:oai:bora.uib.no:1956/9689 2023-05-15T17:08:16+02:00 Inadequate risk assessments – A study on worst-case scenarios related to petroleum exploitation in the Lofoten area Hauge, Kjellrun Hiis Blanchard, Anne Andersen, Gisle Boland, Ragnhild Grøsvik, Bjørn Einar Howell, Daniel Meier, Sonnich Olsen, Erik Joel Steinar Vikebø, Frode Bendiksen 2015-03-04T11:17:37Z application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/1956/9689 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2013.07.008 eng eng urn:issn:0308-597X https://hdl.handle.net/1956/9689 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2013.07.008 cristin:1095939 Attribution CC BY http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ Copyright 2013 The Authors Marine Policy 44 82-89 Worst-case scenario Risk assessments Petroleum production Uncertainty Science for policy VDP::Mathematics and natural scienses: 400::Zoology and botany: 480::Eco-toxicology: 489 VDP::Matematikk og naturvitenskap: 400::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480::Økotoksikologi : 489 Peer reviewed Journal article 2015 ftunivbergen https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2013.07.008 2023-03-14T17:40:06Z Heated debates are currently taking place on whether to open the area of Lofoten and Vesterålen in Northern Norway for petroleum production. Seismic explorations in this area have indicated promising petroleum resources. The area is known for its unique landscape and as a key spawning and nursery area for several economically important fish species. It hosts significant bird colonies and the world's largest-known deep-sea coral reef. New areas will be opened to petroleum production only if its high environmental value can be maintained. A risk analysis approach has become central to this decision, where the probability of a ‘worst-case scenario’ (a major oil spill) is assessed together with associated environmental impacts. This paper examines and characterises uncertainties associated with these risk assessments and some of the surrounding debates. Further, the paper reveals implications of these uncertainties: (1) potential values embedded in the risk assessments, (2) lack of validity of quantified worst-case scenarios and their probabilities and impacts, (3) limited prospects of filling addressed knowledge gaps and (4) how risk assessments restrict the debate on what issues and uncertainties are considered relevant. Taken together, this suggests that discussions on alternative approaches to decision making should be more prominent in public and political debates. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Lofoten Northern Norway Vesterålen University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) Lofoten Norway Vesterålen ENVELOPE(14.939,14.939,68.754,68.754) Marine Policy 44 82 89 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivbergen |
language |
English |
topic |
Worst-case scenario Risk assessments Petroleum production Uncertainty Science for policy VDP::Mathematics and natural scienses: 400::Zoology and botany: 480::Eco-toxicology: 489 VDP::Matematikk og naturvitenskap: 400::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480::Økotoksikologi : 489 |
spellingShingle |
Worst-case scenario Risk assessments Petroleum production Uncertainty Science for policy VDP::Mathematics and natural scienses: 400::Zoology and botany: 480::Eco-toxicology: 489 VDP::Matematikk og naturvitenskap: 400::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480::Økotoksikologi : 489 Hauge, Kjellrun Hiis Blanchard, Anne Andersen, Gisle Boland, Ragnhild Grøsvik, Bjørn Einar Howell, Daniel Meier, Sonnich Olsen, Erik Joel Steinar Vikebø, Frode Bendiksen Inadequate risk assessments – A study on worst-case scenarios related to petroleum exploitation in the Lofoten area |
topic_facet |
Worst-case scenario Risk assessments Petroleum production Uncertainty Science for policy VDP::Mathematics and natural scienses: 400::Zoology and botany: 480::Eco-toxicology: 489 VDP::Matematikk og naturvitenskap: 400::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480::Økotoksikologi : 489 |
description |
Heated debates are currently taking place on whether to open the area of Lofoten and Vesterålen in Northern Norway for petroleum production. Seismic explorations in this area have indicated promising petroleum resources. The area is known for its unique landscape and as a key spawning and nursery area for several economically important fish species. It hosts significant bird colonies and the world's largest-known deep-sea coral reef. New areas will be opened to petroleum production only if its high environmental value can be maintained. A risk analysis approach has become central to this decision, where the probability of a ‘worst-case scenario’ (a major oil spill) is assessed together with associated environmental impacts. This paper examines and characterises uncertainties associated with these risk assessments and some of the surrounding debates. Further, the paper reveals implications of these uncertainties: (1) potential values embedded in the risk assessments, (2) lack of validity of quantified worst-case scenarios and their probabilities and impacts, (3) limited prospects of filling addressed knowledge gaps and (4) how risk assessments restrict the debate on what issues and uncertainties are considered relevant. Taken together, this suggests that discussions on alternative approaches to decision making should be more prominent in public and political debates. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hauge, Kjellrun Hiis Blanchard, Anne Andersen, Gisle Boland, Ragnhild Grøsvik, Bjørn Einar Howell, Daniel Meier, Sonnich Olsen, Erik Joel Steinar Vikebø, Frode Bendiksen |
author_facet |
Hauge, Kjellrun Hiis Blanchard, Anne Andersen, Gisle Boland, Ragnhild Grøsvik, Bjørn Einar Howell, Daniel Meier, Sonnich Olsen, Erik Joel Steinar Vikebø, Frode Bendiksen |
author_sort |
Hauge, Kjellrun Hiis |
title |
Inadequate risk assessments – A study on worst-case scenarios related to petroleum exploitation in the Lofoten area |
title_short |
Inadequate risk assessments – A study on worst-case scenarios related to petroleum exploitation in the Lofoten area |
title_full |
Inadequate risk assessments – A study on worst-case scenarios related to petroleum exploitation in the Lofoten area |
title_fullStr |
Inadequate risk assessments – A study on worst-case scenarios related to petroleum exploitation in the Lofoten area |
title_full_unstemmed |
Inadequate risk assessments – A study on worst-case scenarios related to petroleum exploitation in the Lofoten area |
title_sort |
inadequate risk assessments – a study on worst-case scenarios related to petroleum exploitation in the lofoten area |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/1956/9689 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2013.07.008 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(14.939,14.939,68.754,68.754) |
geographic |
Lofoten Norway Vesterålen |
geographic_facet |
Lofoten Norway Vesterålen |
genre |
Lofoten Northern Norway Vesterålen |
genre_facet |
Lofoten Northern Norway Vesterålen |
op_source |
Marine Policy 44 82-89 |
op_relation |
urn:issn:0308-597X https://hdl.handle.net/1956/9689 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2013.07.008 cristin:1095939 |
op_rights |
Attribution CC BY http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ Copyright 2013 The Authors |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2013.07.008 |
container_title |
Marine Policy |
container_volume |
44 |
container_start_page |
82 |
op_container_end_page |
89 |
_version_ |
1766063978533879808 |