Effects of simulated natural variability on Arctic temperature
A five-member ensemble with a coupled atmospheresea ice-ocean model is used to examine the effects of natural variability on climate projections for the Arctic. The individual ensemble members are initialized from a 300 years control experiment, each starting from different strengths and phases of t...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Language: | English |
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American Geophysical Union
2005
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1956/826 https://doi.org/10.1029/2005gl023404 |
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ftunivbergen:oai:bora.uib.no:1956/826 2023-05-15T14:38:13+02:00 Effects of simulated natural variability on Arctic temperature Sorteberg, Asgeir Furevik, Tore Drange, Helge Kvamstø, Nils Gunnar 2005-09-23 310565 bytes application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/1956/826 https://doi.org/10.1029/2005gl023404 eng eng American Geophysical Union urn:issn:0094-8276 https://hdl.handle.net/1956/826 https://doi.org/10.1029/2005gl023404 Journal article 2005 ftunivbergen https://doi.org/10.1029/2005gl023404 2023-03-14T17:40:08Z A five-member ensemble with a coupled atmospheresea ice-ocean model is used to examine the effects of natural variability on climate projections for the Arctic. The individual ensemble members are initialized from a 300 years control experiment, each starting from different strengths and phases of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The ensemble members are integrated for 80 years with a 1% per year increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO2. The main findings are that on decadal time scales, multi-model spread of estimated temperature changes in the Arctic may potentially be attributed to internal variability of the climate system. During weak CO2 forcing the internal variability may mask the strength of the anthropogenic signals for several decades. The implications of the findings are that attribution of any Arctic climate change trends calculated over a few decades is difficult. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) Arctic Geophysical Research Letters 32 18 n/a n/a |
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Open Polar |
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University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) |
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ftunivbergen |
language |
English |
description |
A five-member ensemble with a coupled atmospheresea ice-ocean model is used to examine the effects of natural variability on climate projections for the Arctic. The individual ensemble members are initialized from a 300 years control experiment, each starting from different strengths and phases of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The ensemble members are integrated for 80 years with a 1% per year increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO2. The main findings are that on decadal time scales, multi-model spread of estimated temperature changes in the Arctic may potentially be attributed to internal variability of the climate system. During weak CO2 forcing the internal variability may mask the strength of the anthropogenic signals for several decades. The implications of the findings are that attribution of any Arctic climate change trends calculated over a few decades is difficult. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Sorteberg, Asgeir Furevik, Tore Drange, Helge Kvamstø, Nils Gunnar |
spellingShingle |
Sorteberg, Asgeir Furevik, Tore Drange, Helge Kvamstø, Nils Gunnar Effects of simulated natural variability on Arctic temperature |
author_facet |
Sorteberg, Asgeir Furevik, Tore Drange, Helge Kvamstø, Nils Gunnar |
author_sort |
Sorteberg, Asgeir |
title |
Effects of simulated natural variability on Arctic temperature |
title_short |
Effects of simulated natural variability on Arctic temperature |
title_full |
Effects of simulated natural variability on Arctic temperature |
title_fullStr |
Effects of simulated natural variability on Arctic temperature |
title_full_unstemmed |
Effects of simulated natural variability on Arctic temperature |
title_sort |
effects of simulated natural variability on arctic temperature |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2005 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/1956/826 https://doi.org/10.1029/2005gl023404 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change |
op_relation |
urn:issn:0094-8276 https://hdl.handle.net/1956/826 https://doi.org/10.1029/2005gl023404 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2005gl023404 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
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32 |
container_issue |
18 |
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n/a |
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n/a |
_version_ |
1766310337152286720 |