Reconciling Observation and Model Trends in North Atlantic Surface CO2
The North Atlantic Ocean is a region of intense uptake of atmospheric CO2. To assess how this CO2 sink has evolved over recent decades, various approaches have been used to estimate basin‐wide uptake from the irregularly sampled in situ CO2 observations. Until now, the lack of robust uncertainties a...
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ftunivbergen:oai:bora.uib.no:1956/23470 2023-05-15T17:27:11+02:00 Reconciling Observation and Model Trends in North Atlantic Surface CO2 Lebehot, Alice Halloran, Paul R. Watson, Andrew J. McNeall, Doug Ford, David A Landschützer, Peter Lauvset, Siv Kari Schuster, Ute 2020-02-12T14:38:36Z application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/1956/23470 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gb006186 eng eng AGU https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GB006186 urn:issn:1944-9224 urn:issn:0886-6236 https://hdl.handle.net/1956/23470 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gb006186 cristin:1755292 Attribution CC BY http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 Copyright 2019 The Author(s) Global Biogeochemical Cycles Peer reviewed Journal article 2020 ftunivbergen https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gb006186 2023-03-14T17:43:58Z The North Atlantic Ocean is a region of intense uptake of atmospheric CO2. To assess how this CO2 sink has evolved over recent decades, various approaches have been used to estimate basin‐wide uptake from the irregularly sampled in situ CO2 observations. Until now, the lack of robust uncertainties associated with observation‐based gap‐filling methods required to produce these estimates has limited the capacity to validate climate model simulated surface ocean CO2 concentrations. After robustly quantifying basin‐wide and annually varying interpolation uncertainties using both observational and model data, we show that the North Atlantic surface ocean fugacity of CO2 (f CO2−ocean) increased at a significantly slower rate than that simulated by the latest generation of Earth System Models during the period 1992–2014. We further show, with initialized model simulations, that the inability of these models to capture the observed trend in surface f CO2−ocean is primarily due to biases in the models' ocean biogeochemistry. Our results imply that current projections may underestimate the contribution of the North Atlantic to mitigating increasing future atmospheric CO2 concentrations. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) Global Biogeochemical Cycles 33 10 1204 1222 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) |
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ftunivbergen |
language |
English |
description |
The North Atlantic Ocean is a region of intense uptake of atmospheric CO2. To assess how this CO2 sink has evolved over recent decades, various approaches have been used to estimate basin‐wide uptake from the irregularly sampled in situ CO2 observations. Until now, the lack of robust uncertainties associated with observation‐based gap‐filling methods required to produce these estimates has limited the capacity to validate climate model simulated surface ocean CO2 concentrations. After robustly quantifying basin‐wide and annually varying interpolation uncertainties using both observational and model data, we show that the North Atlantic surface ocean fugacity of CO2 (f CO2−ocean) increased at a significantly slower rate than that simulated by the latest generation of Earth System Models during the period 1992–2014. We further show, with initialized model simulations, that the inability of these models to capture the observed trend in surface f CO2−ocean is primarily due to biases in the models' ocean biogeochemistry. Our results imply that current projections may underestimate the contribution of the North Atlantic to mitigating increasing future atmospheric CO2 concentrations. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Lebehot, Alice Halloran, Paul R. Watson, Andrew J. McNeall, Doug Ford, David A Landschützer, Peter Lauvset, Siv Kari Schuster, Ute |
spellingShingle |
Lebehot, Alice Halloran, Paul R. Watson, Andrew J. McNeall, Doug Ford, David A Landschützer, Peter Lauvset, Siv Kari Schuster, Ute Reconciling Observation and Model Trends in North Atlantic Surface CO2 |
author_facet |
Lebehot, Alice Halloran, Paul R. Watson, Andrew J. McNeall, Doug Ford, David A Landschützer, Peter Lauvset, Siv Kari Schuster, Ute |
author_sort |
Lebehot, Alice |
title |
Reconciling Observation and Model Trends in North Atlantic Surface CO2 |
title_short |
Reconciling Observation and Model Trends in North Atlantic Surface CO2 |
title_full |
Reconciling Observation and Model Trends in North Atlantic Surface CO2 |
title_fullStr |
Reconciling Observation and Model Trends in North Atlantic Surface CO2 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Reconciling Observation and Model Trends in North Atlantic Surface CO2 |
title_sort |
reconciling observation and model trends in north atlantic surface co2 |
publisher |
AGU |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/1956/23470 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gb006186 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Global Biogeochemical Cycles |
op_relation |
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GB006186 urn:issn:1944-9224 urn:issn:0886-6236 https://hdl.handle.net/1956/23470 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gb006186 cristin:1755292 |
op_rights |
Attribution CC BY http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 Copyright 2019 The Author(s) |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gb006186 |
container_title |
Global Biogeochemical Cycles |
container_volume |
33 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
1204 |
op_container_end_page |
1222 |
_version_ |
1766119141101535232 |