Global Stokes drift climate under the RCP8.5 scenario
The future Stokes drift climate is investigated using a global wave climate projection (2071–2100) forced with EC-EARTH winds under the RCP8.5 scenario. The future climate run is compared against a historical run (1976–2005). The Stokes drift climate is analyzed in terms of Stokes transport and surf...
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1956/22591 https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-18-0435.1 |
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ftunivbergen:oai:bora.uib.no:1956/22591 2023-05-15T17:31:08+02:00 Global Stokes drift climate under the RCP8.5 scenario Breivik, Øyvind Carrasco, Ana Staneva, Joanna Behrens, Arno Semedo, Alvaro Bidlot, Jean-Raymond Aarnes, Ole Johan 2020-02-12T14:54:39Z application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/1956/22591 https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-18-0435.1 eng eng AMS Copernicus-programmet: CMEMS WaveFlow urn:issn:1520-0442 urn:issn:0894-8755 https://hdl.handle.net/1956/22591 https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-18-0435.1 cristin:1704114 Copyright 2019 American Meteorological Society Journal of Climate Peer reviewed Journal article 2020 ftunivbergen https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-18-0435.1 2023-03-14T17:39:17Z The future Stokes drift climate is investigated using a global wave climate projection (2071–2100) forced with EC-EARTH winds under the RCP8.5 scenario. The future climate run is compared against a historical run (1976–2005). The Stokes drift climate is analyzed in terms of Stokes transport and surface Stokes drift. The impact on Stokes drift from changes to the wind, wind sea, and swell climate is identified. The consequences for upper-ocean mixing and circulation are studied by investigating the turbulent Langmuir number and the Stokes depth. The historical climate run is also compared to a hindcast with ERA-Interim forcing. Systematic discrepancies due to differences in resolution and model physics are identified, but no fundamental weaknesses are uncovered that should adversely affect the future run. As the surface Stokes drift is largely dictated by high-frequency waves, it is to a great degree controlled by changes to the local wind field, whereas the Stokes transport is more sensitive to swell. Both are expected to increase in the Southern Ocean by about 15%, while the North Atlantic sees a decrease of about 10%. The Stokes depth and the turbulent Langmuir number are set to change by about ±20% and ±10%, respectively. The changes to the Stokes depth suggest a deeper impact of the Coriolis–Stokes force in the Southern Ocean and a decrease in the northern extratropics. Changes to the KPP Langmuir-enhancement factor suggests potentially increased mixing in the Southern Ocean and a reduction in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Southern Ocean University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) Langmuir ENVELOPE(-67.150,-67.150,-66.967,-66.967) Pacific Southern Ocean Journal of Climate 32 6 1677 1691 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivbergen |
language |
English |
description |
The future Stokes drift climate is investigated using a global wave climate projection (2071–2100) forced with EC-EARTH winds under the RCP8.5 scenario. The future climate run is compared against a historical run (1976–2005). The Stokes drift climate is analyzed in terms of Stokes transport and surface Stokes drift. The impact on Stokes drift from changes to the wind, wind sea, and swell climate is identified. The consequences for upper-ocean mixing and circulation are studied by investigating the turbulent Langmuir number and the Stokes depth. The historical climate run is also compared to a hindcast with ERA-Interim forcing. Systematic discrepancies due to differences in resolution and model physics are identified, but no fundamental weaknesses are uncovered that should adversely affect the future run. As the surface Stokes drift is largely dictated by high-frequency waves, it is to a great degree controlled by changes to the local wind field, whereas the Stokes transport is more sensitive to swell. Both are expected to increase in the Southern Ocean by about 15%, while the North Atlantic sees a decrease of about 10%. The Stokes depth and the turbulent Langmuir number are set to change by about ±20% and ±10%, respectively. The changes to the Stokes depth suggest a deeper impact of the Coriolis–Stokes force in the Southern Ocean and a decrease in the northern extratropics. Changes to the KPP Langmuir-enhancement factor suggests potentially increased mixing in the Southern Ocean and a reduction in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Breivik, Øyvind Carrasco, Ana Staneva, Joanna Behrens, Arno Semedo, Alvaro Bidlot, Jean-Raymond Aarnes, Ole Johan |
spellingShingle |
Breivik, Øyvind Carrasco, Ana Staneva, Joanna Behrens, Arno Semedo, Alvaro Bidlot, Jean-Raymond Aarnes, Ole Johan Global Stokes drift climate under the RCP8.5 scenario |
author_facet |
Breivik, Øyvind Carrasco, Ana Staneva, Joanna Behrens, Arno Semedo, Alvaro Bidlot, Jean-Raymond Aarnes, Ole Johan |
author_sort |
Breivik, Øyvind |
title |
Global Stokes drift climate under the RCP8.5 scenario |
title_short |
Global Stokes drift climate under the RCP8.5 scenario |
title_full |
Global Stokes drift climate under the RCP8.5 scenario |
title_fullStr |
Global Stokes drift climate under the RCP8.5 scenario |
title_full_unstemmed |
Global Stokes drift climate under the RCP8.5 scenario |
title_sort |
global stokes drift climate under the rcp8.5 scenario |
publisher |
AMS |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/1956/22591 https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-18-0435.1 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-67.150,-67.150,-66.967,-66.967) |
geographic |
Langmuir Pacific Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Langmuir Pacific Southern Ocean |
genre |
North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Journal of Climate |
op_relation |
Copernicus-programmet: CMEMS WaveFlow urn:issn:1520-0442 urn:issn:0894-8755 https://hdl.handle.net/1956/22591 https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-18-0435.1 cristin:1704114 |
op_rights |
Copyright 2019 American Meteorological Society |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-18-0435.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
32 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
1677 |
op_container_end_page |
1691 |
_version_ |
1766128462990409728 |