Catastrophic dynamics limit Atlantic cod recovery
Collapses and regime changes are pervasive in complex systems (such as marine ecosystems) governed by multiple stressors. The demise of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stocks constitutes a text book example of the consequences of overexploiting marine living resources, yet the drivers of these nearly sy...
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ftunivbergen:oai:bora.uib.no:1956/22435 2023-05-15T15:26:59+02:00 Catastrophic dynamics limit Atlantic cod recovery Sguotti, Camilla Otto, Saskia A Frelat, Romain Langbehn, Tom Plambech Ryberg, M Lindegren, Martin Durant, Joel Marcel Stenseth, Nils Christian Möllmann, Christian 2019-11-06T13:51:11Z application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/1956/22435 https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2018.2877 eng eng The Royal Society urn:issn:1471-2954 urn:issn:0962-8452 http://hdl.handle.net/1956/22435 https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2018.2877 cristin:1705963 Attribution CC BY http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Copyright 2019 The Authors Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences catastrophe theory stock collapse Atlantic cod stochastic cusp modelling population recovery Peer reviewed Journal article 2019 ftunivbergen https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2018.2877 2023-03-14T17:39:20Z Collapses and regime changes are pervasive in complex systems (such as marine ecosystems) governed by multiple stressors. The demise of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stocks constitutes a text book example of the consequences of overexploiting marine living resources, yet the drivers of these nearly synchronous collapses are still debated. Moreover, it is still unclear why rebuilding of collapsed fish stocks such as cod is often slow or absent. Here, we apply the stochastic cusp model, based on catastrophe theory, and show that collapse and recovery of cod stocks are potentially driven by the specific interaction between exploitation pressure and environmental drivers. Our statistical modelling study demonstrates that for most of the cod stocks, ocean warming could induce a nonlinear discontinuous relationship between fishing pressure and stock size, which would explain hysteresis in their response to reduced exploitation pressure. Our study suggests further that a continuing increase in ocean temperatures will probably limit productivity and hence future fishing opportunities for most cod stocks of the Atlantic Ocean. Moreover, our study contributes to the ongoing discussion on the importance of climate and fishing effects on commercially exploited fish stocks, highlighting the importance of considering discontinuous dynamics in holistic ecosystem-based management approaches, particularly under climate change. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper atlantic cod Gadus morhua University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 286 1898 20182877 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivbergen |
language |
English |
topic |
catastrophe theory stock collapse Atlantic cod stochastic cusp modelling population recovery |
spellingShingle |
catastrophe theory stock collapse Atlantic cod stochastic cusp modelling population recovery Sguotti, Camilla Otto, Saskia A Frelat, Romain Langbehn, Tom Plambech Ryberg, M Lindegren, Martin Durant, Joel Marcel Stenseth, Nils Christian Möllmann, Christian Catastrophic dynamics limit Atlantic cod recovery |
topic_facet |
catastrophe theory stock collapse Atlantic cod stochastic cusp modelling population recovery |
description |
Collapses and regime changes are pervasive in complex systems (such as marine ecosystems) governed by multiple stressors. The demise of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stocks constitutes a text book example of the consequences of overexploiting marine living resources, yet the drivers of these nearly synchronous collapses are still debated. Moreover, it is still unclear why rebuilding of collapsed fish stocks such as cod is often slow or absent. Here, we apply the stochastic cusp model, based on catastrophe theory, and show that collapse and recovery of cod stocks are potentially driven by the specific interaction between exploitation pressure and environmental drivers. Our statistical modelling study demonstrates that for most of the cod stocks, ocean warming could induce a nonlinear discontinuous relationship between fishing pressure and stock size, which would explain hysteresis in their response to reduced exploitation pressure. Our study suggests further that a continuing increase in ocean temperatures will probably limit productivity and hence future fishing opportunities for most cod stocks of the Atlantic Ocean. Moreover, our study contributes to the ongoing discussion on the importance of climate and fishing effects on commercially exploited fish stocks, highlighting the importance of considering discontinuous dynamics in holistic ecosystem-based management approaches, particularly under climate change. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Sguotti, Camilla Otto, Saskia A Frelat, Romain Langbehn, Tom Plambech Ryberg, M Lindegren, Martin Durant, Joel Marcel Stenseth, Nils Christian Möllmann, Christian |
author_facet |
Sguotti, Camilla Otto, Saskia A Frelat, Romain Langbehn, Tom Plambech Ryberg, M Lindegren, Martin Durant, Joel Marcel Stenseth, Nils Christian Möllmann, Christian |
author_sort |
Sguotti, Camilla |
title |
Catastrophic dynamics limit Atlantic cod recovery |
title_short |
Catastrophic dynamics limit Atlantic cod recovery |
title_full |
Catastrophic dynamics limit Atlantic cod recovery |
title_fullStr |
Catastrophic dynamics limit Atlantic cod recovery |
title_full_unstemmed |
Catastrophic dynamics limit Atlantic cod recovery |
title_sort |
catastrophic dynamics limit atlantic cod recovery |
publisher |
The Royal Society |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/1956/22435 https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2018.2877 |
genre |
atlantic cod Gadus morhua |
genre_facet |
atlantic cod Gadus morhua |
op_source |
Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences |
op_relation |
urn:issn:1471-2954 urn:issn:0962-8452 http://hdl.handle.net/1956/22435 https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2018.2877 cristin:1705963 |
op_rights |
Attribution CC BY http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Copyright 2019 The Authors |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2018.2877 |
container_title |
Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences |
container_volume |
286 |
container_issue |
1898 |
container_start_page |
20182877 |
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1766357453609369600 |