Time Scales and Sources of European Temperature Variability
Skillful predictions of continental climate would be of great practical benefit for society and stakeholders. It nevertheless remains fundamentally unresolved to what extent climate is predictable, for what features, at what time scales, and by which mechanisms. Here we identify the dominant time sc...
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1956/19816 https://doi.org/10.1002/2018gl077401 |
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ftunivbergen:oai:bora.uib.no:1956/19816 2023-05-15T17:29:07+02:00 Time Scales and Sources of European Temperature Variability Årthun, Marius Kolstad, Erik Wilhelm Eldevik, Tor Keenlyside, Noel 2019-01-24T09:32:39Z application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/1956/19816 https://doi.org/10.1002/2018gl077401 eng eng Wiley Norges forskningsråd: 270733 Norges forskningsråd: 263223 EC/H2020: 727852 urn:issn:1944-8007 urn:issn:0094-8276 https://hdl.handle.net/1956/19816 https://doi.org/10.1002/2018gl077401 cristin:1588004 Attribution CC BY-NC-ND http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Copyright 2018 The Author(s) Geophysical Research Letters Peer reviewed Journal article 2019 ftunivbergen https://doi.org/10.1002/2018gl077401 2023-03-14T17:39:23Z Skillful predictions of continental climate would be of great practical benefit for society and stakeholders. It nevertheless remains fundamentally unresolved to what extent climate is predictable, for what features, at what time scales, and by which mechanisms. Here we identify the dominant time scales and sources of European surface air temperature (SAT) variability during the cold season using a coupled climate reanalysis, and a statistical method that estimates SAT variability due to atmospheric circulation anomalies. We find that eastern Europe is dominated by subdecadal SAT variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, whereas interdecadal and multidecadal SAT variability over northern and southern Europe are thermodynamically driven by ocean temperature anomalies. Our results provide evidence that temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic Ocean are advected over land by the mean westerly winds and, hence, provide a mechanism through which ocean temperature controls the variability and provides predictability of European SAT. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) Geophysical Research Letters 45 8 3597 3604 |
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Open Polar |
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University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) |
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ftunivbergen |
language |
English |
description |
Skillful predictions of continental climate would be of great practical benefit for society and stakeholders. It nevertheless remains fundamentally unresolved to what extent climate is predictable, for what features, at what time scales, and by which mechanisms. Here we identify the dominant time scales and sources of European surface air temperature (SAT) variability during the cold season using a coupled climate reanalysis, and a statistical method that estimates SAT variability due to atmospheric circulation anomalies. We find that eastern Europe is dominated by subdecadal SAT variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, whereas interdecadal and multidecadal SAT variability over northern and southern Europe are thermodynamically driven by ocean temperature anomalies. Our results provide evidence that temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic Ocean are advected over land by the mean westerly winds and, hence, provide a mechanism through which ocean temperature controls the variability and provides predictability of European SAT. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Årthun, Marius Kolstad, Erik Wilhelm Eldevik, Tor Keenlyside, Noel |
spellingShingle |
Årthun, Marius Kolstad, Erik Wilhelm Eldevik, Tor Keenlyside, Noel Time Scales and Sources of European Temperature Variability |
author_facet |
Årthun, Marius Kolstad, Erik Wilhelm Eldevik, Tor Keenlyside, Noel |
author_sort |
Årthun, Marius |
title |
Time Scales and Sources of European Temperature Variability |
title_short |
Time Scales and Sources of European Temperature Variability |
title_full |
Time Scales and Sources of European Temperature Variability |
title_fullStr |
Time Scales and Sources of European Temperature Variability |
title_full_unstemmed |
Time Scales and Sources of European Temperature Variability |
title_sort |
time scales and sources of european temperature variability |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/1956/19816 https://doi.org/10.1002/2018gl077401 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Geophysical Research Letters |
op_relation |
Norges forskningsråd: 270733 Norges forskningsråd: 263223 EC/H2020: 727852 urn:issn:1944-8007 urn:issn:0094-8276 https://hdl.handle.net/1956/19816 https://doi.org/10.1002/2018gl077401 cristin:1588004 |
op_rights |
Attribution CC BY-NC-ND http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Copyright 2018 The Author(s) |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2018gl077401 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
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45 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
3597 |
op_container_end_page |
3604 |
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1766122720138887168 |