Projected changes in significant wave height toward the end of the 21st century: Northeast Atlantic
Wind field ensembles from six CMIP5 models force wave model time slices of the northeast Atlantic over the last three decades of the 20th and the 21st centuries. The future wave climate is investigated by considering the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. The CMIP5 model selection is based on the...
Published in: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans |
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Language: | English |
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American Geophysical Union
2018
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1956/17524 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016jc012521 |
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ftunivbergen:oai:bora.uib.no:1956/17524 2023-05-15T15:39:00+02:00 Projected changes in significant wave height toward the end of the 21st century: Northeast Atlantic Aarnes, Ole Johan Reistad, Magnar Breivik, Øyvind Bitner-Gregersen, Elzbieta M. Eide, Lars Ingolf Gramstad, Odin Magnusson, Anne Karin Natvig, Bent Vanem, Erik 2018-02-08T13:50:33Z application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/1956/17524 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016jc012521 eng eng American Geophysical Union Norges forskningsråd: 226239 (ExWaCli), 256466 (ExWaMar) urn:issn:2169-9291 urn:issn:2169-9275 https://hdl.handle.net/1956/17524 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016jc012521 cristin:1469791 Copyright 2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans Peer reviewed Journal article 2018 ftunivbergen https://doi.org/10.1002/2016jc012521 2023-03-14T17:42:47Z Wind field ensembles from six CMIP5 models force wave model time slices of the northeast Atlantic over the last three decades of the 20th and the 21st centuries. The future wave climate is investigated by considering the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. The CMIP5 model selection is based on their ability to reconstruct the present (1971–2000) extratropical cyclone activity, but increased spatial resolution has also been emphasized. In total, the study comprises 35 wave model integrations, each about 30 years long, in total more than 1000 years. Here annual statistics of significant wave height are analyzed, including mean parameters and upper percentiles. There is general agreement among all models considered that the mean significant wave height is expected to decrease by the end of the 21st century. This signal is statistically significant also for higher percentiles, but less evident for annual maxima. The RCP8.5 scenario yields the strongest reduction in wave height. The exception to this is the north western part of the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea, where receding ice cover gives longer fetch and higher waves. The upper percentiles are reduced less than the mean wave height, suggesting that the future wave climate has higher variance than the historical period. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Barents Sea Northeast Atlantic Norwegian Sea University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) Barents Sea Norwegian Sea Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 122 4 3394 3403 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivbergen |
language |
English |
description |
Wind field ensembles from six CMIP5 models force wave model time slices of the northeast Atlantic over the last three decades of the 20th and the 21st centuries. The future wave climate is investigated by considering the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. The CMIP5 model selection is based on their ability to reconstruct the present (1971–2000) extratropical cyclone activity, but increased spatial resolution has also been emphasized. In total, the study comprises 35 wave model integrations, each about 30 years long, in total more than 1000 years. Here annual statistics of significant wave height are analyzed, including mean parameters and upper percentiles. There is general agreement among all models considered that the mean significant wave height is expected to decrease by the end of the 21st century. This signal is statistically significant also for higher percentiles, but less evident for annual maxima. The RCP8.5 scenario yields the strongest reduction in wave height. The exception to this is the north western part of the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea, where receding ice cover gives longer fetch and higher waves. The upper percentiles are reduced less than the mean wave height, suggesting that the future wave climate has higher variance than the historical period. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Aarnes, Ole Johan Reistad, Magnar Breivik, Øyvind Bitner-Gregersen, Elzbieta M. Eide, Lars Ingolf Gramstad, Odin Magnusson, Anne Karin Natvig, Bent Vanem, Erik |
spellingShingle |
Aarnes, Ole Johan Reistad, Magnar Breivik, Øyvind Bitner-Gregersen, Elzbieta M. Eide, Lars Ingolf Gramstad, Odin Magnusson, Anne Karin Natvig, Bent Vanem, Erik Projected changes in significant wave height toward the end of the 21st century: Northeast Atlantic |
author_facet |
Aarnes, Ole Johan Reistad, Magnar Breivik, Øyvind Bitner-Gregersen, Elzbieta M. Eide, Lars Ingolf Gramstad, Odin Magnusson, Anne Karin Natvig, Bent Vanem, Erik |
author_sort |
Aarnes, Ole Johan |
title |
Projected changes in significant wave height toward the end of the 21st century: Northeast Atlantic |
title_short |
Projected changes in significant wave height toward the end of the 21st century: Northeast Atlantic |
title_full |
Projected changes in significant wave height toward the end of the 21st century: Northeast Atlantic |
title_fullStr |
Projected changes in significant wave height toward the end of the 21st century: Northeast Atlantic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projected changes in significant wave height toward the end of the 21st century: Northeast Atlantic |
title_sort |
projected changes in significant wave height toward the end of the 21st century: northeast atlantic |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/1956/17524 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016jc012521 |
geographic |
Barents Sea Norwegian Sea |
geographic_facet |
Barents Sea Norwegian Sea |
genre |
Barents Sea Northeast Atlantic Norwegian Sea |
genre_facet |
Barents Sea Northeast Atlantic Norwegian Sea |
op_source |
Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans |
op_relation |
Norges forskningsråd: 226239 (ExWaCli), 256466 (ExWaMar) urn:issn:2169-9291 urn:issn:2169-9275 https://hdl.handle.net/1956/17524 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016jc012521 cristin:1469791 |
op_rights |
Copyright 2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016jc012521 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans |
container_volume |
122 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
3394 |
op_container_end_page |
3403 |
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1766370443127685120 |