Skillful prediction of Barents Sea ice cover
A main concern of present climate change is the Arctic sea ice cover. In wintertime, its observed variability is largely carried by the Barents Sea. Here we propose and evaluate a simple quantitative and prognostic framework based on first principles and rooted in observations to predict the annual...
Main Authors: | , , , , |
---|---|
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
2015
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/1956/10787 |
id |
ftunivbergen:oai:bora.uib.no:1956/10787 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftunivbergen:oai:bora.uib.no:1956/10787 2023-05-15T14:21:52+02:00 Skillful prediction of Barents Sea ice cover Onarheim, Ingrid Husøy Eldevik, Tor Årthun, Marius Ingvaldsen, Randi Smedsrud, Lars Henrik 2015-09-07T12:11:17Z application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/1956/10787 eng eng American Geophysical Union (AGU) Regional, seasonal, and predictable Arctic sea ice change urn:issn:0094-8276 https://hdl.handle.net/1956/10787 cristin:1253185 Attribution CC BY http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0 Copyright 2015. The Authors Sea ice Barents Sea ocean heat transport Arctic VDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400 Peer reviewed Journal article 2015 ftunivbergen 2023-03-14T17:40:27Z A main concern of present climate change is the Arctic sea ice cover. In wintertime, its observed variability is largely carried by the Barents Sea. Here we propose and evaluate a simple quantitative and prognostic framework based on first principles and rooted in observations to predict the annual mean Barents Sea ice cover, which variance is carried by the winter ice (96%). By using observed ocean heat transport and sea ice area, the proposed framework appears skillful and explains 50% of the observed sea ice variance up to 2 years in advance. The qualitative prediction of increase versus decrease in ice cover is correct 88% of the time. Model imperfections can largely be diagnosed from simultaneous meridional winds. The framework and skill are supported by a 60 year simulation from a regional ice-ocean model. We particularly predict that the winter sea ice cover for 2016 will be slightly less than 2015. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Barents Sea Climate change Sea ice University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) Arctic Barents Sea |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivbergen |
language |
English |
topic |
Sea ice Barents Sea ocean heat transport Arctic VDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400 |
spellingShingle |
Sea ice Barents Sea ocean heat transport Arctic VDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400 Onarheim, Ingrid Husøy Eldevik, Tor Årthun, Marius Ingvaldsen, Randi Smedsrud, Lars Henrik Skillful prediction of Barents Sea ice cover |
topic_facet |
Sea ice Barents Sea ocean heat transport Arctic VDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400 |
description |
A main concern of present climate change is the Arctic sea ice cover. In wintertime, its observed variability is largely carried by the Barents Sea. Here we propose and evaluate a simple quantitative and prognostic framework based on first principles and rooted in observations to predict the annual mean Barents Sea ice cover, which variance is carried by the winter ice (96%). By using observed ocean heat transport and sea ice area, the proposed framework appears skillful and explains 50% of the observed sea ice variance up to 2 years in advance. The qualitative prediction of increase versus decrease in ice cover is correct 88% of the time. Model imperfections can largely be diagnosed from simultaneous meridional winds. The framework and skill are supported by a 60 year simulation from a regional ice-ocean model. We particularly predict that the winter sea ice cover for 2016 will be slightly less than 2015. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Onarheim, Ingrid Husøy Eldevik, Tor Årthun, Marius Ingvaldsen, Randi Smedsrud, Lars Henrik |
author_facet |
Onarheim, Ingrid Husøy Eldevik, Tor Årthun, Marius Ingvaldsen, Randi Smedsrud, Lars Henrik |
author_sort |
Onarheim, Ingrid Husøy |
title |
Skillful prediction of Barents Sea ice cover |
title_short |
Skillful prediction of Barents Sea ice cover |
title_full |
Skillful prediction of Barents Sea ice cover |
title_fullStr |
Skillful prediction of Barents Sea ice cover |
title_full_unstemmed |
Skillful prediction of Barents Sea ice cover |
title_sort |
skillful prediction of barents sea ice cover |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/1956/10787 |
geographic |
Arctic Barents Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Barents Sea Climate change Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Barents Sea Climate change Sea ice |
op_relation |
Regional, seasonal, and predictable Arctic sea ice change urn:issn:0094-8276 https://hdl.handle.net/1956/10787 cristin:1253185 |
op_rights |
Attribution CC BY http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0 Copyright 2015. The Authors |
_version_ |
1766294562631843840 |