Rapid sea ice changes in the future Barents Sea
Observed and future winter Arctic sea ice loss is strongest in the Barents Sea. However, the anthropogenic signal of the sea ice decline is superimposed by pronounced internal variability that represents a large source of uncertainty in future climate projections. A notable manifestation of internal...
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2023
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3064497 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1445-2023 |
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ftunivbergen:oai:bora.uib.no:11250/3064497 2023-06-11T04:09:33+02:00 Rapid sea ice changes in the future Barents Sea Rieke, Ole Årthun, Marius Dörr, Jakob Simon 2023 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3064497 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1445-2023 eng eng Copernicus Publications Trond Mohn stiftelse: BFS2018TMT01 Norges forskningsråd: 276730 urn:issn:1994-0416 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3064497 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1445-2023 cristin:2139893 The Cryosphere. 2023, 17, 1445-1456. Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no Copyright 2023 The Author(s) The Cryosphere 1445-1456 17 Journal article Peer reviewed 2023 ftunivbergen https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1445-2023 2023-04-26T23:06:27Z Observed and future winter Arctic sea ice loss is strongest in the Barents Sea. However, the anthropogenic signal of the sea ice decline is superimposed by pronounced internal variability that represents a large source of uncertainty in future climate projections. A notable manifestation of internal variability is rapid ice change events (RICEs) that greatly exceed the anthropogenic trend. These RICEs are associated with large displacements of the sea ice edge which could potentially have both local and remote impacts on the climate system. In this study we present the first investigation of the frequency and drivers of RICEs in the future Barents Sea, using multi-member ensemble simulations from CMIP5 and CMIP6. A majority of RICEs are triggered by trends in ocean heat transport or surface heat fluxes. Ice loss events are associated with increasing trends in ocean heat transport and decreasing trends in surface heat loss. RICEs are a common feature of the future Barents Sea until the region becomes close to ice-free. As their evolution over time is closely tied to the average sea ice conditions, rapid ice changes in the Barents Sea may serve as a precursor for future changes in adjacent seas. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Barents Sea Sea ice The Cryosphere University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) Arctic Barents Sea The Cryosphere 17 4 1445 1456 |
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Open Polar |
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University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) |
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ftunivbergen |
language |
English |
description |
Observed and future winter Arctic sea ice loss is strongest in the Barents Sea. However, the anthropogenic signal of the sea ice decline is superimposed by pronounced internal variability that represents a large source of uncertainty in future climate projections. A notable manifestation of internal variability is rapid ice change events (RICEs) that greatly exceed the anthropogenic trend. These RICEs are associated with large displacements of the sea ice edge which could potentially have both local and remote impacts on the climate system. In this study we present the first investigation of the frequency and drivers of RICEs in the future Barents Sea, using multi-member ensemble simulations from CMIP5 and CMIP6. A majority of RICEs are triggered by trends in ocean heat transport or surface heat fluxes. Ice loss events are associated with increasing trends in ocean heat transport and decreasing trends in surface heat loss. RICEs are a common feature of the future Barents Sea until the region becomes close to ice-free. As their evolution over time is closely tied to the average sea ice conditions, rapid ice changes in the Barents Sea may serve as a precursor for future changes in adjacent seas. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Rieke, Ole Årthun, Marius Dörr, Jakob Simon |
spellingShingle |
Rieke, Ole Årthun, Marius Dörr, Jakob Simon Rapid sea ice changes in the future Barents Sea |
author_facet |
Rieke, Ole Årthun, Marius Dörr, Jakob Simon |
author_sort |
Rieke, Ole |
title |
Rapid sea ice changes in the future Barents Sea |
title_short |
Rapid sea ice changes in the future Barents Sea |
title_full |
Rapid sea ice changes in the future Barents Sea |
title_fullStr |
Rapid sea ice changes in the future Barents Sea |
title_full_unstemmed |
Rapid sea ice changes in the future Barents Sea |
title_sort |
rapid sea ice changes in the future barents sea |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3064497 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1445-2023 |
geographic |
Arctic Barents Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea |
genre |
Arctic Barents Sea Sea ice The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea Sea ice The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere 1445-1456 17 |
op_relation |
Trond Mohn stiftelse: BFS2018TMT01 Norges forskningsråd: 276730 urn:issn:1994-0416 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3064497 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1445-2023 cristin:2139893 The Cryosphere. 2023, 17, 1445-1456. |
op_rights |
Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no Copyright 2023 The Author(s) |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-1445-2023 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1445 |
op_container_end_page |
1456 |
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1768383492973920256 |