Spatial Patterns, Mechanisms, and Predictability of Barents Sea Ice Change
Recent Arctic winter sea ice loss has been most pronounced in the Barents Sea. Here we explore the spatial structure of Barents Sea ice change as observed over the last 40 years. The dominant mode of winter sea ice concentration interannual variability corresponds to areal change (explains 43% of sp...
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ftunivbergen:oai:bora.uib.no:11250/3055081 2023-05-15T14:53:31+02:00 Spatial Patterns, Mechanisms, and Predictability of Barents Sea Ice Change Efstathiou, Evangelia Eldevik, Tor Årthun, Marius Lind, Sigrid 2022 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3055081 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0044.1 eng eng AMS Norges forskningsråd: 263223 Trond Mohn stiftelse: BFS2018TMT01 Norges forskningsråd: 270733 Norges forskningsråd: 276730 EC/H2020/727852 urn:issn:0894-8755 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3055081 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0044.1 cristin:2035645 Journal of Climate. 2022, 35 (10), 2961-2973. Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no Copyright 2022 American Meteorological Society Journal of Climate 2961-2973 35 10 Sjøis Sea ice Arktis Arctic Klimavariasjoner Climate variability Hav Oceans VDP::Oseanografi: 452 VDP::Oceanography: 452 Journal article Peer reviewed 2022 ftunivbergen https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0044.1 2023-03-14T17:42:06Z Recent Arctic winter sea ice loss has been most pronounced in the Barents Sea. Here we explore the spatial structure of Barents Sea ice change as observed over the last 40 years. The dominant mode of winter sea ice concentration interannual variability corresponds to areal change (explains 43% of spatial variance) and has a center of action in the northeastern Barents Sea where the temperate Atlantic inflow meets the wintertime sea ice. Sea ice area import and northerly wind also contribute to this “areal-change mode”; the area increases with more ice import and stronger winds from the north. The remaining 57% variance in sea ice, individually and combined, redistributes the sea ice without changing the total area. The two leading redistribution modes are a dipole of increase in sea ice concentration south of Svalbard with decrease southwest of Novaya Zemlya, and a tripole of increase in the central Barents Sea with decrease east of Svalbard and in the southeastern Barents Sea. Redistribution is mainly contributed by anomalous wind and sea ice area import. Basic predictability (i.e., the lagged response to observed drivers) is predominantly associated with the areal-change mode as influenced by temperature of the Atlantic inflow and sea ice import from the Arctic. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arktis Arktis* Barents Sea Novaya Zemlya Sea ice Svalbard University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) Arctic Barents Sea Svalbard Journal of Climate 35 10 2961 2973 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivbergen |
language |
English |
topic |
Sjøis Sea ice Arktis Arctic Klimavariasjoner Climate variability Hav Oceans VDP::Oseanografi: 452 VDP::Oceanography: 452 |
spellingShingle |
Sjøis Sea ice Arktis Arctic Klimavariasjoner Climate variability Hav Oceans VDP::Oseanografi: 452 VDP::Oceanography: 452 Efstathiou, Evangelia Eldevik, Tor Årthun, Marius Lind, Sigrid Spatial Patterns, Mechanisms, and Predictability of Barents Sea Ice Change |
topic_facet |
Sjøis Sea ice Arktis Arctic Klimavariasjoner Climate variability Hav Oceans VDP::Oseanografi: 452 VDP::Oceanography: 452 |
description |
Recent Arctic winter sea ice loss has been most pronounced in the Barents Sea. Here we explore the spatial structure of Barents Sea ice change as observed over the last 40 years. The dominant mode of winter sea ice concentration interannual variability corresponds to areal change (explains 43% of spatial variance) and has a center of action in the northeastern Barents Sea where the temperate Atlantic inflow meets the wintertime sea ice. Sea ice area import and northerly wind also contribute to this “areal-change mode”; the area increases with more ice import and stronger winds from the north. The remaining 57% variance in sea ice, individually and combined, redistributes the sea ice without changing the total area. The two leading redistribution modes are a dipole of increase in sea ice concentration south of Svalbard with decrease southwest of Novaya Zemlya, and a tripole of increase in the central Barents Sea with decrease east of Svalbard and in the southeastern Barents Sea. Redistribution is mainly contributed by anomalous wind and sea ice area import. Basic predictability (i.e., the lagged response to observed drivers) is predominantly associated with the areal-change mode as influenced by temperature of the Atlantic inflow and sea ice import from the Arctic. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Efstathiou, Evangelia Eldevik, Tor Årthun, Marius Lind, Sigrid |
author_facet |
Efstathiou, Evangelia Eldevik, Tor Årthun, Marius Lind, Sigrid |
author_sort |
Efstathiou, Evangelia |
title |
Spatial Patterns, Mechanisms, and Predictability of Barents Sea Ice Change |
title_short |
Spatial Patterns, Mechanisms, and Predictability of Barents Sea Ice Change |
title_full |
Spatial Patterns, Mechanisms, and Predictability of Barents Sea Ice Change |
title_fullStr |
Spatial Patterns, Mechanisms, and Predictability of Barents Sea Ice Change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Spatial Patterns, Mechanisms, and Predictability of Barents Sea Ice Change |
title_sort |
spatial patterns, mechanisms, and predictability of barents sea ice change |
publisher |
AMS |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3055081 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0044.1 |
geographic |
Arctic Barents Sea Svalbard |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea Svalbard |
genre |
Arctic Arktis Arktis* Barents Sea Novaya Zemlya Sea ice Svalbard |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arktis Arktis* Barents Sea Novaya Zemlya Sea ice Svalbard |
op_source |
Journal of Climate 2961-2973 35 10 |
op_relation |
Norges forskningsråd: 263223 Trond Mohn stiftelse: BFS2018TMT01 Norges forskningsråd: 270733 Norges forskningsråd: 276730 EC/H2020/727852 urn:issn:0894-8755 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3055081 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0044.1 cristin:2035645 Journal of Climate. 2022, 35 (10), 2961-2973. |
op_rights |
Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no Copyright 2022 American Meteorological Society |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0044.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
35 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
2961 |
op_container_end_page |
2973 |
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1766325106958663680 |