Constraining CMIP6 Projections of an Ice-Free Arctic Using a Weighting Scheme
Employing a model democracy in which each model is equally weighted may lead to a poor estimation of the true uncertainty in climate projections from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The improvement and increase in number of CMIP6 models compared with previous phases of...
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ftunivbergen:oai:bora.uib.no:11250/3040157 2023-05-15T14:38:46+02:00 Constraining CMIP6 Projections of an Ice-Free Arctic Using a Weighting Scheme Zhao, Jiazhen He, Shengping Wang, Huijun Li, Fei 2022 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3040157 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002708 eng eng Wiley https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022EF002708 Norges forskningsråd: 325440 urn:issn:2328-4277 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3040157 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002708 cristin:2082669 Earth's Future. 2022, 10 (10), e2022EF002708. Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.no Copyright 2022 The Authors e2022EF002708 Earth's Future 10 Journal article Peer reviewed 2022 ftunivbergen https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002708 2023-03-14T17:42:37Z Employing a model democracy in which each model is equally weighted may lead to a poor estimation of the true uncertainty in climate projections from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The improvement and increase in number of CMIP6 models compared with previous phases of CMIP indicate that both model skill and independence need to be considered to provide convincing projections. In this study, we use a weighting scheme, which weights both the skill and independence of multi-model simulations, to efficiently constrain the large uncertainty in the projection of the timing of an ice-free Arctic. The uncertainty-constrained projections of CMIP6 show that the multi-model spread of the projected first year of an ice-free Arctic can be reduced by about 29 years under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)3–7.0 scenario (a regional rivalry scenario), indicating a faster tendency to an ice-free Arctic summer than projections based solely on model democracy. A fossil-fuel-based development scenario (i.e., SSP5-8.5) leads to an ice-free Arctic before the 2070s (ranging from 2038 to 2071), while an ice-free Arctic occurs slightly later (by ∼10 years) under the SSP2-4.5 scenario (i.e., intermediate scenario) and the SSP3-7.0 scenario, but is inevitable this century. The sustainable development scenario (i.e., SSP1-2.6) is likely to prevent the occurrence of an ice-free Arctic. Internal variability strongly affects the projection estimated by the equally weighted ensemble; however, it has a negligible impact on the results obtained by the weighting scheme, thereby indicating that the results of this study are robust and convincing. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) Arctic Earth's Future 10 10 |
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Open Polar |
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University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) |
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ftunivbergen |
language |
English |
description |
Employing a model democracy in which each model is equally weighted may lead to a poor estimation of the true uncertainty in climate projections from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The improvement and increase in number of CMIP6 models compared with previous phases of CMIP indicate that both model skill and independence need to be considered to provide convincing projections. In this study, we use a weighting scheme, which weights both the skill and independence of multi-model simulations, to efficiently constrain the large uncertainty in the projection of the timing of an ice-free Arctic. The uncertainty-constrained projections of CMIP6 show that the multi-model spread of the projected first year of an ice-free Arctic can be reduced by about 29 years under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)3–7.0 scenario (a regional rivalry scenario), indicating a faster tendency to an ice-free Arctic summer than projections based solely on model democracy. A fossil-fuel-based development scenario (i.e., SSP5-8.5) leads to an ice-free Arctic before the 2070s (ranging from 2038 to 2071), while an ice-free Arctic occurs slightly later (by ∼10 years) under the SSP2-4.5 scenario (i.e., intermediate scenario) and the SSP3-7.0 scenario, but is inevitable this century. The sustainable development scenario (i.e., SSP1-2.6) is likely to prevent the occurrence of an ice-free Arctic. Internal variability strongly affects the projection estimated by the equally weighted ensemble; however, it has a negligible impact on the results obtained by the weighting scheme, thereby indicating that the results of this study are robust and convincing. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Zhao, Jiazhen He, Shengping Wang, Huijun Li, Fei |
spellingShingle |
Zhao, Jiazhen He, Shengping Wang, Huijun Li, Fei Constraining CMIP6 Projections of an Ice-Free Arctic Using a Weighting Scheme |
author_facet |
Zhao, Jiazhen He, Shengping Wang, Huijun Li, Fei |
author_sort |
Zhao, Jiazhen |
title |
Constraining CMIP6 Projections of an Ice-Free Arctic Using a Weighting Scheme |
title_short |
Constraining CMIP6 Projections of an Ice-Free Arctic Using a Weighting Scheme |
title_full |
Constraining CMIP6 Projections of an Ice-Free Arctic Using a Weighting Scheme |
title_fullStr |
Constraining CMIP6 Projections of an Ice-Free Arctic Using a Weighting Scheme |
title_full_unstemmed |
Constraining CMIP6 Projections of an Ice-Free Arctic Using a Weighting Scheme |
title_sort |
constraining cmip6 projections of an ice-free arctic using a weighting scheme |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3040157 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002708 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
e2022EF002708 Earth's Future 10 |
op_relation |
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022EF002708 Norges forskningsråd: 325440 urn:issn:2328-4277 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3040157 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002708 cristin:2082669 Earth's Future. 2022, 10 (10), e2022EF002708. |
op_rights |
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.no Copyright 2022 The Authors |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002708 |
container_title |
Earth's Future |
container_volume |
10 |
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10 |
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1766310797544259584 |