Coupled stratosphere-troposphere-Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its importance for near-future climate projection
Northern Hemisphere (NH) climate has experienced various coherent wintertime multidecadal climate trends in stratosphere, troposphere, ocean, and cryosphere. However, the overall mechanistic framework linking these trends is not well established. Here we show, using long-term transient forced couple...
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ftunivbergen:oai:bora.uib.no:11250/3039912 2023-05-15T14:49:39+02:00 Coupled stratosphere-troposphere-Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its importance for near-future climate projection Omrani, Nour-Eddine Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian Matthes, Katja Boljka, Lina Zanchettin, Davide Jungclaus, Johann H. Lubis, Sandro W. 2022 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3039912 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00275-1 eng eng Nature Research Norges forskningsråd: 316618 Trond Mohn stiftelse: BFS2018TMT01 Nordforsk: 76654 Sigma2: NS9039K Sigma2: NN9039K urn:issn:2397-3722 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3039912 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00275-1 cristin:2038959 npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 2022, 5, 59. Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no Copyright 2022 the authors 59 npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 5 Journal article Peer reviewed 2022 ftunivbergen https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00275-1 2023-03-14T17:41:55Z Northern Hemisphere (NH) climate has experienced various coherent wintertime multidecadal climate trends in stratosphere, troposphere, ocean, and cryosphere. However, the overall mechanistic framework linking these trends is not well established. Here we show, using long-term transient forced coupled climate simulation, that large parts of the coherent NH-multidecadal changes can be understood within a damped coupled stratosphere/troposphere/ocean-oscillation framework. Wave-induced downward propagating positive stratosphere/troposphere-coupled Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and associated stratospheric cooling initiate delayed thermohaline strengthening of Atlantic overturning circulation and extratropical Atlantic-gyres. These increase the poleward oceanic heat transport leading to Arctic sea-ice melting, Arctic warming amplification, and large-scale Atlantic warming, which in turn initiates wave-induced downward propagating negative NAM and stratospheric warming and therefore reverse the oscillation phase. This coupled variability improves the performance of statistical models, which project further weakening of North Atlantic Oscillation, North Atlantic cooling and hiatus in wintertime North Atlantic-Arctic sea-ice and global surface temperature just like the 1950s–1970s. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Atlantic Arctic Atlantic-Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) Arctic npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 5 1 |
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Open Polar |
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University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) |
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ftunivbergen |
language |
English |
description |
Northern Hemisphere (NH) climate has experienced various coherent wintertime multidecadal climate trends in stratosphere, troposphere, ocean, and cryosphere. However, the overall mechanistic framework linking these trends is not well established. Here we show, using long-term transient forced coupled climate simulation, that large parts of the coherent NH-multidecadal changes can be understood within a damped coupled stratosphere/troposphere/ocean-oscillation framework. Wave-induced downward propagating positive stratosphere/troposphere-coupled Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and associated stratospheric cooling initiate delayed thermohaline strengthening of Atlantic overturning circulation and extratropical Atlantic-gyres. These increase the poleward oceanic heat transport leading to Arctic sea-ice melting, Arctic warming amplification, and large-scale Atlantic warming, which in turn initiates wave-induced downward propagating negative NAM and stratospheric warming and therefore reverse the oscillation phase. This coupled variability improves the performance of statistical models, which project further weakening of North Atlantic Oscillation, North Atlantic cooling and hiatus in wintertime North Atlantic-Arctic sea-ice and global surface temperature just like the 1950s–1970s. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Omrani, Nour-Eddine Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian Matthes, Katja Boljka, Lina Zanchettin, Davide Jungclaus, Johann H. Lubis, Sandro W. |
spellingShingle |
Omrani, Nour-Eddine Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian Matthes, Katja Boljka, Lina Zanchettin, Davide Jungclaus, Johann H. Lubis, Sandro W. Coupled stratosphere-troposphere-Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its importance for near-future climate projection |
author_facet |
Omrani, Nour-Eddine Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian Matthes, Katja Boljka, Lina Zanchettin, Davide Jungclaus, Johann H. Lubis, Sandro W. |
author_sort |
Omrani, Nour-Eddine |
title |
Coupled stratosphere-troposphere-Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its importance for near-future climate projection |
title_short |
Coupled stratosphere-troposphere-Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its importance for near-future climate projection |
title_full |
Coupled stratosphere-troposphere-Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its importance for near-future climate projection |
title_fullStr |
Coupled stratosphere-troposphere-Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its importance for near-future climate projection |
title_full_unstemmed |
Coupled stratosphere-troposphere-Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its importance for near-future climate projection |
title_sort |
coupled stratosphere-troposphere-atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its importance for near-future climate projection |
publisher |
Nature Research |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3039912 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00275-1 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Atlantic Arctic Atlantic-Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Atlantic Arctic Atlantic-Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
op_source |
59 npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 5 |
op_relation |
Norges forskningsråd: 316618 Trond Mohn stiftelse: BFS2018TMT01 Nordforsk: 76654 Sigma2: NS9039K Sigma2: NN9039K urn:issn:2397-3722 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3039912 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00275-1 cristin:2038959 npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 2022, 5, 59. |
op_rights |
Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no Copyright 2022 the authors |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00275-1 |
container_title |
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
container_volume |
5 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1766320726301736960 |