Surface mass balance modeling of the Greenland ice sheet : Sensitivity and uncertainty of the energy balance model BESSI
The surface mass balance is the main connection between the atmospheric climate change and the evolution of Greenland ice sheet over the next century. This thesis focuses on the development of surface mass and energy balance model for simulations of timescales above a century. The Bergen Snow SImula...
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The University of Bergen
2022
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ftunivbergen:oai:bora.uib.no:11250/2998055 2023-05-15T16:27:45+02:00 Surface mass balance modeling of the Greenland ice sheet : Sensitivity and uncertainty of the energy balance model BESSI Zolles, Tobias orcid:0000-0002-3891-8357 2022-06-08T01:41:52Z application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2998055 eng eng The University of Bergen Paper I: Tobias Zolles and Andreas Born. 2021. Sensitivity of the Greenland surface mass and energy balance to uncertainties in key model parameters, The Cryosphere 15.6: 2917-2938. The article is available at: https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2991013 Paper II: Tobias Zolles and Andreas Born. 2021. How does a change in climate variability impact the Greenland ice-sheet surface mass balance?, The Cryosphere Discussions. The article is available in the thesis file. The article is also available at: https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-379 Paper III: Holube, Katharina M., Tobias Zolles, and Andreas Born. 2022. Sources of uncertainty in Greenland surface mass balance in the 21st century, The Cryosphere 16, 315–331. The article is available at: https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2998053 container/ae/ee/b1/ac/aeeeb1ac-c5ed-4f0f-ac5f-fc85bf1033fc urn:isbn:9788230860519 urn:isbn:9788230856390 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2998055 In copyright http://rightsstatements.org/page/InC/1.0/ Copyright the Author. All rights reserved Doctoral thesis 2022 ftunivbergen 2023-03-14T17:42:08Z The surface mass balance is the main connection between the atmospheric climate change and the evolution of Greenland ice sheet over the next century. This thesis focuses on the development of surface mass and energy balance model for simulations of timescales above a century. The Bergen Snow SImulator (BESSI) needs to compromise between the necessary complexity to resolve the relevant physical processes and the computational costs of the model. There were three main studies published for the PhD focusing on model sensitivity, uncertainty assessment, transferability in space and time, and the modeling of the surface mass balance until the end of the current century. BESSI is an energy balance model that accounts for snow albedo decay, vapor fluxes and sub-surface water percolation and refreezing. The sensitivity of the surface mass balance towards the individual free model parameters was assessed for a cold and a warm period for the first publication of this thesis. The dominant factor during the warm period are uncertainties associated with the long-wave radiation and clouds, while during the cold climate of the last glacial maximum, sublimation and deposition cannot be neglected. BESSI provides useful SMB simulations over the entire Greenland ice sheet, but the uncertainties associated with the long-wave radiation are better reduced by relying on climate data input. The influence of the boundary climate conditions was studied next. The ice sheet is relatively stable to temporal variability changes, if the absolute range of change stays the same. Nevertheless, simulations based on a climatology instead of variable climate lead to a drastic overestimation of the surface mass balance. Climatologies have small amounts of daily snowfall, which lead to an increased snow albedo. A possible solution to obtain a good forcing for BESSI, and likely other surface mass balance models, is by distributing the precipitation based on the real temporal and spatial precipitation patterns. After the thorough sensitivity and ... Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere The Cryosphere Discussions University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) Bergen Greenland |
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Open Polar |
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University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivbergen |
language |
English |
description |
The surface mass balance is the main connection between the atmospheric climate change and the evolution of Greenland ice sheet over the next century. This thesis focuses on the development of surface mass and energy balance model for simulations of timescales above a century. The Bergen Snow SImulator (BESSI) needs to compromise between the necessary complexity to resolve the relevant physical processes and the computational costs of the model. There were three main studies published for the PhD focusing on model sensitivity, uncertainty assessment, transferability in space and time, and the modeling of the surface mass balance until the end of the current century. BESSI is an energy balance model that accounts for snow albedo decay, vapor fluxes and sub-surface water percolation and refreezing. The sensitivity of the surface mass balance towards the individual free model parameters was assessed for a cold and a warm period for the first publication of this thesis. The dominant factor during the warm period are uncertainties associated with the long-wave radiation and clouds, while during the cold climate of the last glacial maximum, sublimation and deposition cannot be neglected. BESSI provides useful SMB simulations over the entire Greenland ice sheet, but the uncertainties associated with the long-wave radiation are better reduced by relying on climate data input. The influence of the boundary climate conditions was studied next. The ice sheet is relatively stable to temporal variability changes, if the absolute range of change stays the same. Nevertheless, simulations based on a climatology instead of variable climate lead to a drastic overestimation of the surface mass balance. Climatologies have small amounts of daily snowfall, which lead to an increased snow albedo. A possible solution to obtain a good forcing for BESSI, and likely other surface mass balance models, is by distributing the precipitation based on the real temporal and spatial precipitation patterns. After the thorough sensitivity and ... |
author2 |
orcid:0000-0002-3891-8357 |
format |
Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis |
author |
Zolles, Tobias |
spellingShingle |
Zolles, Tobias Surface mass balance modeling of the Greenland ice sheet : Sensitivity and uncertainty of the energy balance model BESSI |
author_facet |
Zolles, Tobias |
author_sort |
Zolles, Tobias |
title |
Surface mass balance modeling of the Greenland ice sheet : Sensitivity and uncertainty of the energy balance model BESSI |
title_short |
Surface mass balance modeling of the Greenland ice sheet : Sensitivity and uncertainty of the energy balance model BESSI |
title_full |
Surface mass balance modeling of the Greenland ice sheet : Sensitivity and uncertainty of the energy balance model BESSI |
title_fullStr |
Surface mass balance modeling of the Greenland ice sheet : Sensitivity and uncertainty of the energy balance model BESSI |
title_full_unstemmed |
Surface mass balance modeling of the Greenland ice sheet : Sensitivity and uncertainty of the energy balance model BESSI |
title_sort |
surface mass balance modeling of the greenland ice sheet : sensitivity and uncertainty of the energy balance model bessi |
publisher |
The University of Bergen |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2998055 |
geographic |
Bergen Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Bergen Greenland |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere The Cryosphere Discussions |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere The Cryosphere Discussions |
op_relation |
Paper I: Tobias Zolles and Andreas Born. 2021. Sensitivity of the Greenland surface mass and energy balance to uncertainties in key model parameters, The Cryosphere 15.6: 2917-2938. The article is available at: https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2991013 Paper II: Tobias Zolles and Andreas Born. 2021. How does a change in climate variability impact the Greenland ice-sheet surface mass balance?, The Cryosphere Discussions. The article is available in the thesis file. The article is also available at: https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2021-379 Paper III: Holube, Katharina M., Tobias Zolles, and Andreas Born. 2022. Sources of uncertainty in Greenland surface mass balance in the 21st century, The Cryosphere 16, 315–331. The article is available at: https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2998053 container/ae/ee/b1/ac/aeeeb1ac-c5ed-4f0f-ac5f-fc85bf1033fc urn:isbn:9788230860519 urn:isbn:9788230856390 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2998055 |
op_rights |
In copyright http://rightsstatements.org/page/InC/1.0/ Copyright the Author. All rights reserved |
_version_ |
1766017264483565568 |