North Atlantic Oscillation in winter is largely insensitive to autumn Barents-Kara sea ice variability
Arctic sea ice extent in autumn is significantly correlated with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the satellite era. However, questions about the robustness and reproducibility of the relationship persist. Here, we show that climate models are able to simulate periods of strong ice-NAO...
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ftunivbergen:oai:bora.uib.no:11250/2993772 2023-05-15T15:04:22+02:00 North Atlantic Oscillation in winter is largely insensitive to autumn Barents-Kara sea ice variability Siew, Yu Feng Li, Camille Ting, Mingfang Sobolowski, Stefan Pieter Wu, Yutian Chen, Xiaodan 2021 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2993772 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abg4893 eng eng American Association for the Advancement of Science Norges forskningsråd: 276730 Norges forskningsråd: 255027 urn:issn:2375-2548 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2993772 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abg4893 cristin:1926255 Science Advances. 2021, 7 (31), eabg4893. Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no Copyright 2021 The Authors eabg4893 Science Advances 7 31 Journal article Peer reviewed 2021 ftunivbergen https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abg4893 2023-03-14T17:40:56Z Arctic sea ice extent in autumn is significantly correlated with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the satellite era. However, questions about the robustness and reproducibility of the relationship persist. Here, we show that climate models are able to simulate periods of strong ice-NAO correlation, albeit rarely. Furthermore, we show that the winter circulation signals during these periods are consistent with observations and not driven by sea ice. We do so by interrogating a multimodel ensemble for the specific time scale of interest, thereby illuminating the dynamics that produce large spread in the ice-NAO relationship. Our results support the importance of internal variability over sea ice but go further in showing that the mechanism behind strong ice-NAO correlations, when they occur, is similar in longer observational records and models. Rather than sea ice, circulation anomalies over the Urals emerge as a decisive precursor to the winter NAO signal. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Kara Sea North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) Arctic Kara Sea Science Advances 7 31 |
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Open Polar |
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University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) |
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ftunivbergen |
language |
English |
description |
Arctic sea ice extent in autumn is significantly correlated with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the satellite era. However, questions about the robustness and reproducibility of the relationship persist. Here, we show that climate models are able to simulate periods of strong ice-NAO correlation, albeit rarely. Furthermore, we show that the winter circulation signals during these periods are consistent with observations and not driven by sea ice. We do so by interrogating a multimodel ensemble for the specific time scale of interest, thereby illuminating the dynamics that produce large spread in the ice-NAO relationship. Our results support the importance of internal variability over sea ice but go further in showing that the mechanism behind strong ice-NAO correlations, when they occur, is similar in longer observational records and models. Rather than sea ice, circulation anomalies over the Urals emerge as a decisive precursor to the winter NAO signal. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Siew, Yu Feng Li, Camille Ting, Mingfang Sobolowski, Stefan Pieter Wu, Yutian Chen, Xiaodan |
spellingShingle |
Siew, Yu Feng Li, Camille Ting, Mingfang Sobolowski, Stefan Pieter Wu, Yutian Chen, Xiaodan North Atlantic Oscillation in winter is largely insensitive to autumn Barents-Kara sea ice variability |
author_facet |
Siew, Yu Feng Li, Camille Ting, Mingfang Sobolowski, Stefan Pieter Wu, Yutian Chen, Xiaodan |
author_sort |
Siew, Yu Feng |
title |
North Atlantic Oscillation in winter is largely insensitive to autumn Barents-Kara sea ice variability |
title_short |
North Atlantic Oscillation in winter is largely insensitive to autumn Barents-Kara sea ice variability |
title_full |
North Atlantic Oscillation in winter is largely insensitive to autumn Barents-Kara sea ice variability |
title_fullStr |
North Atlantic Oscillation in winter is largely insensitive to autumn Barents-Kara sea ice variability |
title_full_unstemmed |
North Atlantic Oscillation in winter is largely insensitive to autumn Barents-Kara sea ice variability |
title_sort |
north atlantic oscillation in winter is largely insensitive to autumn barents-kara sea ice variability |
publisher |
American Association for the Advancement of Science |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2993772 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abg4893 |
geographic |
Arctic Kara Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Kara Sea |
genre |
Arctic Kara Sea North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Kara Sea North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
op_source |
eabg4893 Science Advances 7 31 |
op_relation |
Norges forskningsråd: 276730 Norges forskningsråd: 255027 urn:issn:2375-2548 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2993772 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abg4893 cristin:1926255 Science Advances. 2021, 7 (31), eabg4893. |
op_rights |
Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no Copyright 2021 The Authors |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abg4893 |
container_title |
Science Advances |
container_volume |
7 |
container_issue |
31 |
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1766336146814533632 |