Evaluation of three numerical weather prediction models for the Weddell Sea region for the Austral winter 2013
It is widely recognized that numerical weather prediction (NWP) results for the Antarctic are relatively poor compared to the mid-latitudes. In this study, we evaluate output from three operational NWP systems: the ECMWF, Global Forecast System (GFS) and Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS),...
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ftunivbergen:oai:bora.uib.no:11250/2990877 2023-05-15T14:13:33+02:00 Evaluation of three numerical weather prediction models for the Weddell Sea region for the Austral winter 2013 Jonassen, Marius Opsanger Nygård, Tiina Vihma, Timo Pekka 2021 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2990877 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033389 eng eng AGU urn:issn:2169-897X https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2990877 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033389 cristin:1907009 Journal of Geophysical Research (JGR): Atmospheres. 2021, 126 (2), e2020JD033389. Navngivelse-Ikkekommersiell 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/deed.no Copyright 2020 The Author(s) e2020JD033389 Journal of Geophysical Research (JGR): Atmospheres 126 2 Journal article Peer reviewed 2021 ftunivbergen https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033389 2023-03-14T17:43:28Z It is widely recognized that numerical weather prediction (NWP) results for the Antarctic are relatively poor compared to the mid-latitudes. In this study, we evaluate output from three operational NWP systems: the ECMWF, Global Forecast System (GFS) and Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS), for the Austral winter (June-August) of 2013 for the Weddell Sea region, paying special attention to regional patterns of error statistics. This is the first evaluation of NWP systems over the Southern Ocean that also addresses the accuracy of forecasted vertical profiles. In the evaluation, we use data from land- and ship-based automatic weather stations (AWS) and radiosoundings. While the ECMWF and AMPS forecasts are on average biased cold and dry near the surface, the GFS forecasts are on average biased warm and moist. The near-surface wind speed is on average overestimated by the AMPS forecasts, whereas it is slightly underestimated by the forecasts of the other two NWP systems. Among the variables investigated, all three NWP systems forecast the near-surface specific humidity most accurately, followed by the temperature and then the wind speed. The forecast quality for the near-surface and upper-air wind speed degrades the most rapidly with increasing lead time, compared to the other variables. ECMWF is the overall best NWP system when compared against both the near-surface and upper-air observations, followed by AMPS and then GFS. The generally poorest model performance is found in locations with complex terrain along the coast of the Antarctic continent, and the best over the ocean. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean Weddell Sea University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) Antarctic Austral Southern Ocean The Antarctic Weddell Weddell Sea Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 126 2 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivbergen |
language |
English |
description |
It is widely recognized that numerical weather prediction (NWP) results for the Antarctic are relatively poor compared to the mid-latitudes. In this study, we evaluate output from three operational NWP systems: the ECMWF, Global Forecast System (GFS) and Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS), for the Austral winter (June-August) of 2013 for the Weddell Sea region, paying special attention to regional patterns of error statistics. This is the first evaluation of NWP systems over the Southern Ocean that also addresses the accuracy of forecasted vertical profiles. In the evaluation, we use data from land- and ship-based automatic weather stations (AWS) and radiosoundings. While the ECMWF and AMPS forecasts are on average biased cold and dry near the surface, the GFS forecasts are on average biased warm and moist. The near-surface wind speed is on average overestimated by the AMPS forecasts, whereas it is slightly underestimated by the forecasts of the other two NWP systems. Among the variables investigated, all three NWP systems forecast the near-surface specific humidity most accurately, followed by the temperature and then the wind speed. The forecast quality for the near-surface and upper-air wind speed degrades the most rapidly with increasing lead time, compared to the other variables. ECMWF is the overall best NWP system when compared against both the near-surface and upper-air observations, followed by AMPS and then GFS. The generally poorest model performance is found in locations with complex terrain along the coast of the Antarctic continent, and the best over the ocean. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jonassen, Marius Opsanger Nygård, Tiina Vihma, Timo Pekka |
spellingShingle |
Jonassen, Marius Opsanger Nygård, Tiina Vihma, Timo Pekka Evaluation of three numerical weather prediction models for the Weddell Sea region for the Austral winter 2013 |
author_facet |
Jonassen, Marius Opsanger Nygård, Tiina Vihma, Timo Pekka |
author_sort |
Jonassen, Marius Opsanger |
title |
Evaluation of three numerical weather prediction models for the Weddell Sea region for the Austral winter 2013 |
title_short |
Evaluation of three numerical weather prediction models for the Weddell Sea region for the Austral winter 2013 |
title_full |
Evaluation of three numerical weather prediction models for the Weddell Sea region for the Austral winter 2013 |
title_fullStr |
Evaluation of three numerical weather prediction models for the Weddell Sea region for the Austral winter 2013 |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evaluation of three numerical weather prediction models for the Weddell Sea region for the Austral winter 2013 |
title_sort |
evaluation of three numerical weather prediction models for the weddell sea region for the austral winter 2013 |
publisher |
AGU |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2990877 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033389 |
geographic |
Antarctic Austral Southern Ocean The Antarctic Weddell Weddell Sea |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Austral Southern Ocean The Antarctic Weddell Weddell Sea |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean Weddell Sea |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Southern Ocean Weddell Sea |
op_source |
e2020JD033389 Journal of Geophysical Research (JGR): Atmospheres 126 2 |
op_relation |
urn:issn:2169-897X https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2990877 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033389 cristin:1907009 Journal of Geophysical Research (JGR): Atmospheres. 2021, 126 (2), e2020JD033389. |
op_rights |
Navngivelse-Ikkekommersiell 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/deed.no Copyright 2020 The Author(s) |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033389 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
container_volume |
126 |
container_issue |
2 |
_version_ |
1766286007509975040 |