Propagation of Thermohaline Anomalies and their predictive potential along the Atlantic water pathway
We assess to what extent seven state-of-the-art dynamical prediction systems can retrospectively predict winter sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic and the Nordic seas in the period 1970–2005. We focus on the region where warm water flows poleward (i.e., the Atlantic water p...
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2988338 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-1007.1 |
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ftunivbergen:oai:bora.uib.no:11250/2988338 2023-05-15T15:14:00+02:00 Propagation of Thermohaline Anomalies and their predictive potential along the Atlantic water pathway Langehaug, Helene R. Ortega, Pablo Counillon, Francois Stephane Matei, Daniela Maroon, Elizabeth A. Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian Mignot, Juliette Wang, Yiguo Swingedouw, Didier Bethke, Ingo Yang, Shuting Danabasoglu, Gokhan Bellucci, Alessio Ruggieri, Paolo Nicoli, D. Årthun, Marius 2022 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2988338 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-1007.1 eng eng American Meteorological Society EC/H2020/727852 Trond Mohn stiftelse: BFS2018TMT01 urn:issn:0894-8755 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2988338 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-1007.1 cristin:1978929 Journal of Climate. 2022, 35 (7), 2111–2131 . Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no Copyright 2022 American Meteorological Society. Journal of Climate 2111–2131 35 7 Journal article Peer reviewed 2022 ftunivbergen https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-1007.1 2023-03-14T17:43:18Z We assess to what extent seven state-of-the-art dynamical prediction systems can retrospectively predict winter sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic and the Nordic seas in the period 1970–2005. We focus on the region where warm water flows poleward (i.e., the Atlantic water pathway to the Arctic) and on interannual-to-decadal time scales. Observational studies demonstrate predictability several years in advance in this region, but we find that SST skill is low with significant skill only at a lead time of 1–2 years. To better understand why the prediction systems have predictive skill or lack thereof, we assess the skill of the systems to reproduce a spatiotemporal SST pattern based on observations. The physical mechanism underlying this pattern is a propagation of oceanic anomalies from low to high latitudes along the major currents, the North Atlantic Current and the Norwegian Atlantic Current. We find that the prediction systems have difficulties in reproducing this pattern. To identify whether the misrepresentation is due to incorrect model physics, we assess the respective uninitialized historical simulations. These simulations also tend to misrepresent the spatiotemporal SST pattern, indicating that the physical mechanism is not properly simulated. However, the representation of the pattern is slightly degraded in the predictions compared to historical runs, which could be a result of initialization shocks and forecast drift effects. Ways to enhance predictions could include improved initialization and better simulation of poleward circulation of anomalies. This might require model resolutions in which flow over complex bathymetry and the physics of mesoscale ocean eddies and their interactions with the atmosphere are resolved. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Nordic Seas north atlantic current North Atlantic University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) Arctic Journal of Climate 35 7 2111 2131 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivbergen |
language |
English |
description |
We assess to what extent seven state-of-the-art dynamical prediction systems can retrospectively predict winter sea surface temperature (SST) in the subpolar North Atlantic and the Nordic seas in the period 1970–2005. We focus on the region where warm water flows poleward (i.e., the Atlantic water pathway to the Arctic) and on interannual-to-decadal time scales. Observational studies demonstrate predictability several years in advance in this region, but we find that SST skill is low with significant skill only at a lead time of 1–2 years. To better understand why the prediction systems have predictive skill or lack thereof, we assess the skill of the systems to reproduce a spatiotemporal SST pattern based on observations. The physical mechanism underlying this pattern is a propagation of oceanic anomalies from low to high latitudes along the major currents, the North Atlantic Current and the Norwegian Atlantic Current. We find that the prediction systems have difficulties in reproducing this pattern. To identify whether the misrepresentation is due to incorrect model physics, we assess the respective uninitialized historical simulations. These simulations also tend to misrepresent the spatiotemporal SST pattern, indicating that the physical mechanism is not properly simulated. However, the representation of the pattern is slightly degraded in the predictions compared to historical runs, which could be a result of initialization shocks and forecast drift effects. Ways to enhance predictions could include improved initialization and better simulation of poleward circulation of anomalies. This might require model resolutions in which flow over complex bathymetry and the physics of mesoscale ocean eddies and their interactions with the atmosphere are resolved. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Langehaug, Helene R. Ortega, Pablo Counillon, Francois Stephane Matei, Daniela Maroon, Elizabeth A. Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian Mignot, Juliette Wang, Yiguo Swingedouw, Didier Bethke, Ingo Yang, Shuting Danabasoglu, Gokhan Bellucci, Alessio Ruggieri, Paolo Nicoli, D. Årthun, Marius |
spellingShingle |
Langehaug, Helene R. Ortega, Pablo Counillon, Francois Stephane Matei, Daniela Maroon, Elizabeth A. Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian Mignot, Juliette Wang, Yiguo Swingedouw, Didier Bethke, Ingo Yang, Shuting Danabasoglu, Gokhan Bellucci, Alessio Ruggieri, Paolo Nicoli, D. Årthun, Marius Propagation of Thermohaline Anomalies and their predictive potential along the Atlantic water pathway |
author_facet |
Langehaug, Helene R. Ortega, Pablo Counillon, Francois Stephane Matei, Daniela Maroon, Elizabeth A. Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian Mignot, Juliette Wang, Yiguo Swingedouw, Didier Bethke, Ingo Yang, Shuting Danabasoglu, Gokhan Bellucci, Alessio Ruggieri, Paolo Nicoli, D. Årthun, Marius |
author_sort |
Langehaug, Helene R. |
title |
Propagation of Thermohaline Anomalies and their predictive potential along the Atlantic water pathway |
title_short |
Propagation of Thermohaline Anomalies and their predictive potential along the Atlantic water pathway |
title_full |
Propagation of Thermohaline Anomalies and their predictive potential along the Atlantic water pathway |
title_fullStr |
Propagation of Thermohaline Anomalies and their predictive potential along the Atlantic water pathway |
title_full_unstemmed |
Propagation of Thermohaline Anomalies and their predictive potential along the Atlantic water pathway |
title_sort |
propagation of thermohaline anomalies and their predictive potential along the atlantic water pathway |
publisher |
American Meteorological Society |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2988338 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-1007.1 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Nordic Seas north atlantic current North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Arctic Nordic Seas north atlantic current North Atlantic |
op_source |
Journal of Climate 2111–2131 35 7 |
op_relation |
EC/H2020/727852 Trond Mohn stiftelse: BFS2018TMT01 urn:issn:0894-8755 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2988338 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-1007.1 cristin:1978929 Journal of Climate. 2022, 35 (7), 2111–2131 . |
op_rights |
Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no Copyright 2022 American Meteorological Society. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-1007.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
35 |
container_issue |
7 |
container_start_page |
2111 |
op_container_end_page |
2131 |
_version_ |
1766344504343789568 |