Reconstructing winter climate anomalies in the Euro-Atlantic sector using circulation patterns
The efficacy of Euro-Atlantic circulation regimes for estimating wintertime climate anomalies (precipitation and surface temperature) over Europe is assessed. A comparison of seasonal climate reconstructions from two different regime frameworks (cluster analysis of the low-level zonal flow, and trad...
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2987271 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-777-2021 |
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ftunivbergen:oai:bora.uib.no:11250/2987271 2023-05-15T17:33:16+02:00 Reconstructing winter climate anomalies in the Euro-Atlantic sector using circulation patterns Madonna, Erica Battisti, David Li, Camille White, Rachel H. 2021 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2987271 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-777-2021 eng eng Copernicus Publications Norges forskningsråd: 276730 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2987271 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-777-2021 cristin:1967248 Weather and Climate Dynamics. 2021, 2 (3), 777-794. Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no Copyright Author(s) 2021 Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD) 777-794 2 3 Journal article Peer reviewed 2021 ftunivbergen https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-777-2021 2023-03-14T17:38:46Z The efficacy of Euro-Atlantic circulation regimes for estimating wintertime climate anomalies (precipitation and surface temperature) over Europe is assessed. A comparison of seasonal climate reconstructions from two different regime frameworks (cluster analysis of the low-level zonal flow, and traditional blocking indices) is presented and contrasted with seasonal reconstructions using the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The reconstructions are quantitatively evaluated using correlations and the coefficient of efficiency, accounting for misfit in phase and amplitude. The skill of the various classifications in reconstructing seasonal anomalies depends on the variable and region of interest. The jet and blocking regimes are found to capture more spatial structure in seasonal precipitation anomalies over Europe than the NAO, with the jet framework showing generally better skill relative to the blocking indices. The reconstructions of temperature anomalies have lower skill than those for precipitation, with the best results for temperature obtained by the NAO for high-latitude and by the blocking framework for southern Europe. All methods underestimate the magnitude of seasonal anomalies due to the large variability in precipitation and temperature within each classification pattern. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) Weather and Climate Dynamics 2 3 777 794 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivbergen |
language |
English |
description |
The efficacy of Euro-Atlantic circulation regimes for estimating wintertime climate anomalies (precipitation and surface temperature) over Europe is assessed. A comparison of seasonal climate reconstructions from two different regime frameworks (cluster analysis of the low-level zonal flow, and traditional blocking indices) is presented and contrasted with seasonal reconstructions using the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The reconstructions are quantitatively evaluated using correlations and the coefficient of efficiency, accounting for misfit in phase and amplitude. The skill of the various classifications in reconstructing seasonal anomalies depends on the variable and region of interest. The jet and blocking regimes are found to capture more spatial structure in seasonal precipitation anomalies over Europe than the NAO, with the jet framework showing generally better skill relative to the blocking indices. The reconstructions of temperature anomalies have lower skill than those for precipitation, with the best results for temperature obtained by the NAO for high-latitude and by the blocking framework for southern Europe. All methods underestimate the magnitude of seasonal anomalies due to the large variability in precipitation and temperature within each classification pattern. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Madonna, Erica Battisti, David Li, Camille White, Rachel H. |
spellingShingle |
Madonna, Erica Battisti, David Li, Camille White, Rachel H. Reconstructing winter climate anomalies in the Euro-Atlantic sector using circulation patterns |
author_facet |
Madonna, Erica Battisti, David Li, Camille White, Rachel H. |
author_sort |
Madonna, Erica |
title |
Reconstructing winter climate anomalies in the Euro-Atlantic sector using circulation patterns |
title_short |
Reconstructing winter climate anomalies in the Euro-Atlantic sector using circulation patterns |
title_full |
Reconstructing winter climate anomalies in the Euro-Atlantic sector using circulation patterns |
title_fullStr |
Reconstructing winter climate anomalies in the Euro-Atlantic sector using circulation patterns |
title_full_unstemmed |
Reconstructing winter climate anomalies in the Euro-Atlantic sector using circulation patterns |
title_sort |
reconstructing winter climate anomalies in the euro-atlantic sector using circulation patterns |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2987271 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-777-2021 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD) 777-794 2 3 |
op_relation |
Norges forskningsråd: 276730 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2987271 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-777-2021 cristin:1967248 Weather and Climate Dynamics. 2021, 2 (3), 777-794. |
op_rights |
Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no Copyright Author(s) 2021 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-777-2021 |
container_title |
Weather and Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
2 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
777 |
op_container_end_page |
794 |
_version_ |
1766131708456861696 |