Effects of enhanced downwelling of NOx on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century
Ozone is expected to fully recover from the chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) era by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, because of anthropogenic climate change, a cooler stratosphere decelerates ozone loss reactions and is projected to lead to a super recovery of ozone. We investigate the ozone distri...
Published in: | Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2021
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2985303 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021 |
id |
ftunivbergen:oai:bora.uib.no:11250/2985303 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftunivbergen:oai:bora.uib.no:11250/2985303 2023-05-15T14:07:48+02:00 Effects of enhanced downwelling of NOx on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century Maliniemi, Ville Aleksi Tyssøy, Hilde Nesse Smith-Johnsen, Christine Arsenovic, Pavle Marsh, Daniel R. 2021 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2985303 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021 eng eng Copernicus Publications urn:issn:1680-7316 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2985303 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021 cristin:1938040 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 2021, 21 (14), 11041-11052. Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no Copyright Author(s) 2021. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP) 11041-11052 21 14 Journal article Peer reviewed 2021 ftunivbergen https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021 2023-03-14T17:42:18Z Ozone is expected to fully recover from the chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) era by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, because of anthropogenic climate change, a cooler stratosphere decelerates ozone loss reactions and is projected to lead to a super recovery of ozone. We investigate the ozone distribution over the 21st century with four different future scenarios using simulations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). At the end of the 21st century, the equatorial upper stratosphere has roughly 0.5 to 1.0 ppm more ozone in the scenario with the highest greenhouse gas emissions compared to the conservative scenario. Polar ozone levels exceed those in the pre-CFC era in scenarios that have the highest greenhouse gas emissions. This is true in the Arctic stratosphere and the Antarctic lower stratosphere. The Antarctic upper stratosphere is an exception, where different scenarios all have similar levels of ozone during winter, which do not exceed pre-CFC levels. Our results show that this is due to excess nitrogen oxides (NOx) descending faster from above in the stronger scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. NOx in the polar thermosphere and upper mesosphere is mainly produced by energetic electron precipitation (EEP) and partly by solar UV via transport from low latitudes. Our results indicate that the thermospheric/upper mesospheric NOx will be important factor for the future Antarctic ozone evolution and could potentially prevent a super recovery of ozone in the upper stratosphere. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) Antarctic Arctic The Antarctic Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 21 14 11041 11052 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivbergen |
language |
English |
description |
Ozone is expected to fully recover from the chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) era by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, because of anthropogenic climate change, a cooler stratosphere decelerates ozone loss reactions and is projected to lead to a super recovery of ozone. We investigate the ozone distribution over the 21st century with four different future scenarios using simulations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). At the end of the 21st century, the equatorial upper stratosphere has roughly 0.5 to 1.0 ppm more ozone in the scenario with the highest greenhouse gas emissions compared to the conservative scenario. Polar ozone levels exceed those in the pre-CFC era in scenarios that have the highest greenhouse gas emissions. This is true in the Arctic stratosphere and the Antarctic lower stratosphere. The Antarctic upper stratosphere is an exception, where different scenarios all have similar levels of ozone during winter, which do not exceed pre-CFC levels. Our results show that this is due to excess nitrogen oxides (NOx) descending faster from above in the stronger scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. NOx in the polar thermosphere and upper mesosphere is mainly produced by energetic electron precipitation (EEP) and partly by solar UV via transport from low latitudes. Our results indicate that the thermospheric/upper mesospheric NOx will be important factor for the future Antarctic ozone evolution and could potentially prevent a super recovery of ozone in the upper stratosphere. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Maliniemi, Ville Aleksi Tyssøy, Hilde Nesse Smith-Johnsen, Christine Arsenovic, Pavle Marsh, Daniel R. |
spellingShingle |
Maliniemi, Ville Aleksi Tyssøy, Hilde Nesse Smith-Johnsen, Christine Arsenovic, Pavle Marsh, Daniel R. Effects of enhanced downwelling of NOx on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
author_facet |
Maliniemi, Ville Aleksi Tyssøy, Hilde Nesse Smith-Johnsen, Christine Arsenovic, Pavle Marsh, Daniel R. |
author_sort |
Maliniemi, Ville Aleksi |
title |
Effects of enhanced downwelling of NOx on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
title_short |
Effects of enhanced downwelling of NOx on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
title_full |
Effects of enhanced downwelling of NOx on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
title_fullStr |
Effects of enhanced downwelling of NOx on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
title_full_unstemmed |
Effects of enhanced downwelling of NOx on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
title_sort |
effects of enhanced downwelling of nox on antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2985303 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021 |
geographic |
Antarctic Arctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Arctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Arctic Climate change |
op_source |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP) 11041-11052 21 14 |
op_relation |
urn:issn:1680-7316 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2985303 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021 cristin:1938040 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 2021, 21 (14), 11041-11052. |
op_rights |
Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no Copyright Author(s) 2021. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11041-2021 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
container_volume |
21 |
container_issue |
14 |
container_start_page |
11041 |
op_container_end_page |
11052 |
_version_ |
1766279826667208704 |