Pacific contribution to the early twentieth-century warming in the Arctic
Arctic surface temperature warmed more than twice as fast as global temperature during the early twentieth century, similar to that during the recent global warming. This Arctic warming has been attributed to both external forcing1 and internal variability associated with atmospheric dynamics2,3 and...
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2975809 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0247-1 |
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ftunivbergen:oai:bora.uib.no:11250/2975809 2023-05-15T13:14:59+02:00 Pacific contribution to the early twentieth-century warming in the Arctic Svendsen, Lea Keenlyside, Noel Bethke, Ingo Gao, Yongqi Omrani, Nour-Eddine 2018 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2975809 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0247-1 eng eng Nature https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0247-1 Notur/NorStore: nn9039k Norges forskningsråd: 229774 EC/H2020/648982 Andre: JPI-Climate/Belmont Forum project InterDec Notur/NorStore: ns9039k urn:issn:1758-678X https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2975809 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0247-1 cristin:1600062 Nature Climate Change. 2018, 8, 793-797. Copyright 2018 The Author(s) Nature Climate Change 793-797 8 Journal article Peer reviewed 2018 ftunivbergen https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0247-1 2023-03-14T17:41:55Z Arctic surface temperature warmed more than twice as fast as global temperature during the early twentieth century, similar to that during the recent global warming. This Arctic warming has been attributed to both external forcing1 and internal variability associated with atmospheric dynamics2,3 and Atlantic Ocean temperature4 in combination with Pacific variability5. Here we show, through coupled climate model experiments that superpose externally forced and dynamically driven changes, that Pacific decadal variability alone was a key contributor to the early twentieth century Arctic warming. Sea surface temperatures in the model are phased to observations by prescribing historical wind variations over the Pacific, which drive thermodynamically consistent decadal variations. During the early twentieth century, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) transitioned to a positive phase with a concomitant deepening of the Aleutian Low that warms the Arctic by poleward low-level advection of extratropical air. In addition, our experiments revealed that the implemented Pacific surface changes weaken the polar vortex, which leads to subsidence-induced adiabatic heating of the Arctic surface. Thus, our results suggest that the observed recent shift to the positive PDO phase6 will intensify Arctic warming in the forthcoming decades. acceptedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper aleutian low Arctic Global warming University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) Arctic Pacific Nature Climate Change 8 9 793 797 |
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Open Polar |
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University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) |
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ftunivbergen |
language |
English |
description |
Arctic surface temperature warmed more than twice as fast as global temperature during the early twentieth century, similar to that during the recent global warming. This Arctic warming has been attributed to both external forcing1 and internal variability associated with atmospheric dynamics2,3 and Atlantic Ocean temperature4 in combination with Pacific variability5. Here we show, through coupled climate model experiments that superpose externally forced and dynamically driven changes, that Pacific decadal variability alone was a key contributor to the early twentieth century Arctic warming. Sea surface temperatures in the model are phased to observations by prescribing historical wind variations over the Pacific, which drive thermodynamically consistent decadal variations. During the early twentieth century, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) transitioned to a positive phase with a concomitant deepening of the Aleutian Low that warms the Arctic by poleward low-level advection of extratropical air. In addition, our experiments revealed that the implemented Pacific surface changes weaken the polar vortex, which leads to subsidence-induced adiabatic heating of the Arctic surface. Thus, our results suggest that the observed recent shift to the positive PDO phase6 will intensify Arctic warming in the forthcoming decades. acceptedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Svendsen, Lea Keenlyside, Noel Bethke, Ingo Gao, Yongqi Omrani, Nour-Eddine |
spellingShingle |
Svendsen, Lea Keenlyside, Noel Bethke, Ingo Gao, Yongqi Omrani, Nour-Eddine Pacific contribution to the early twentieth-century warming in the Arctic |
author_facet |
Svendsen, Lea Keenlyside, Noel Bethke, Ingo Gao, Yongqi Omrani, Nour-Eddine |
author_sort |
Svendsen, Lea |
title |
Pacific contribution to the early twentieth-century warming in the Arctic |
title_short |
Pacific contribution to the early twentieth-century warming in the Arctic |
title_full |
Pacific contribution to the early twentieth-century warming in the Arctic |
title_fullStr |
Pacific contribution to the early twentieth-century warming in the Arctic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Pacific contribution to the early twentieth-century warming in the Arctic |
title_sort |
pacific contribution to the early twentieth-century warming in the arctic |
publisher |
Nature |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2975809 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0247-1 |
geographic |
Arctic Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Pacific |
genre |
aleutian low Arctic Global warming |
genre_facet |
aleutian low Arctic Global warming |
op_source |
Nature Climate Change 793-797 8 |
op_relation |
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0247-1 Notur/NorStore: nn9039k Norges forskningsråd: 229774 EC/H2020/648982 Andre: JPI-Climate/Belmont Forum project InterDec Notur/NorStore: ns9039k urn:issn:1758-678X https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2975809 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0247-1 cristin:1600062 Nature Climate Change. 2018, 8, 793-797. |
op_rights |
Copyright 2018 The Author(s) |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0247-1 |
container_title |
Nature Climate Change |
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8 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
793 |
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797 |
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1766266357380284416 |