Remarkable link between projected uncertainties of Arctic sea-ice decline and winter Eurasian climate
We identify that the projected uncertainty of the pan-Arctic sea-ice concentration (SIC) is strongly coupled with the Eurasian circulation in the boreal winter (December–March; DJFM), based on a singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis of the forced response of 11 CMIP5 models. In the models show...
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2975802 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-017-7156-5 |
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ftunivbergen:oai:bora.uib.no:11250/2975802 2023-05-15T14:50:56+02:00 Remarkable link between projected uncertainties of Arctic sea-ice decline and winter Eurasian climate Cheung, Ho Nam Keenlyside, Noel Omrani, Nour-Eddine Zhou, Wen 2018 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2975802 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-017-7156-5 eng eng Springer EC/H2020/648982 Notur/NorStore: NS9039K Notur/NorStore: NN9039K Nordforsk: 76654 Nordforsk: 61841 Notur/NorStore: NS9064K Notur/NorStore: NN9390K urn:issn:0256-1530 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2975802 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-017-7156-5 cristin:1587703 Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. 2018, 35 (1), 38-51. Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no Copyright 2018 The Author(s) Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 38-51 35 1 Journal article Peer reviewed 2018 ftunivbergen https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-017-7156-5 2023-03-14T17:39:28Z We identify that the projected uncertainty of the pan-Arctic sea-ice concentration (SIC) is strongly coupled with the Eurasian circulation in the boreal winter (December–March; DJFM), based on a singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis of the forced response of 11 CMIP5 models. In the models showing a stronger sea-ice decline, the Polar cell becomes weaker and there is an anomalous increase in the sea level pressure (SLP) along 60°N, including the Urals–Siberia region and the Iceland low region. There is an accompanying weakening of both the midlatitude westerly winds and the Ferrell cell, where the SVD signals are also related to anomalous sea surface temperature warming in the midlatitude North Atlantic. In the Mediterranean region, the anomalous circulation response shows a decreasing SLP and increasing precipitation. The anomalous SLP responses over the Euro-Atlantic region project on to the negative North Atlantic Oscillation–like pattern. Altogether, pan-Arctic SIC decline could strongly impact the winter Eurasian climate, but we should be cautious about the causality of their linkage. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Iceland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice Siberia University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) Arctic Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 35 1 38 51 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivbergen |
language |
English |
description |
We identify that the projected uncertainty of the pan-Arctic sea-ice concentration (SIC) is strongly coupled with the Eurasian circulation in the boreal winter (December–March; DJFM), based on a singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis of the forced response of 11 CMIP5 models. In the models showing a stronger sea-ice decline, the Polar cell becomes weaker and there is an anomalous increase in the sea level pressure (SLP) along 60°N, including the Urals–Siberia region and the Iceland low region. There is an accompanying weakening of both the midlatitude westerly winds and the Ferrell cell, where the SVD signals are also related to anomalous sea surface temperature warming in the midlatitude North Atlantic. In the Mediterranean region, the anomalous circulation response shows a decreasing SLP and increasing precipitation. The anomalous SLP responses over the Euro-Atlantic region project on to the negative North Atlantic Oscillation–like pattern. Altogether, pan-Arctic SIC decline could strongly impact the winter Eurasian climate, but we should be cautious about the causality of their linkage. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Cheung, Ho Nam Keenlyside, Noel Omrani, Nour-Eddine Zhou, Wen |
spellingShingle |
Cheung, Ho Nam Keenlyside, Noel Omrani, Nour-Eddine Zhou, Wen Remarkable link between projected uncertainties of Arctic sea-ice decline and winter Eurasian climate |
author_facet |
Cheung, Ho Nam Keenlyside, Noel Omrani, Nour-Eddine Zhou, Wen |
author_sort |
Cheung, Ho Nam |
title |
Remarkable link between projected uncertainties of Arctic sea-ice decline and winter Eurasian climate |
title_short |
Remarkable link between projected uncertainties of Arctic sea-ice decline and winter Eurasian climate |
title_full |
Remarkable link between projected uncertainties of Arctic sea-ice decline and winter Eurasian climate |
title_fullStr |
Remarkable link between projected uncertainties of Arctic sea-ice decline and winter Eurasian climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Remarkable link between projected uncertainties of Arctic sea-ice decline and winter Eurasian climate |
title_sort |
remarkable link between projected uncertainties of arctic sea-ice decline and winter eurasian climate |
publisher |
Springer |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2975802 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-017-7156-5 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Iceland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice Siberia |
genre_facet |
Arctic Iceland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice Siberia |
op_source |
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 38-51 35 1 |
op_relation |
EC/H2020/648982 Notur/NorStore: NS9039K Notur/NorStore: NN9039K Nordforsk: 76654 Nordforsk: 61841 Notur/NorStore: NS9064K Notur/NorStore: NN9390K urn:issn:0256-1530 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2975802 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-017-7156-5 cristin:1587703 Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. 2018, 35 (1), 38-51. |
op_rights |
Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no Copyright 2018 The Author(s) |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-017-7156-5 |
container_title |
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences |
container_volume |
35 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
38 |
op_container_end_page |
51 |
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1766321988827086848 |