Pacific contribution to decadal surface temperature trends in the Arctic during the twentieth century
Instrumental records suggest multidecadal variability in Arctic surface temperature throughout the twentieth century. This variability is caused by a combination of external forcing and internal variability, but their relative importance remains unclear. Since the early twentieth century Arctic warm...
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ftunivbergen:oai:bora.uib.no:11250/2936746 2023-05-15T13:15:01+02:00 Pacific contribution to decadal surface temperature trends in the Arctic during the twentieth century Svendsen, Lea Keenlyside, Noel Muilwijk, Morven Bethke, Ingo Omrani, Nour-Eddine Gao, Yongqi 2021 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2936746 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05868-9 eng eng Springer Norges forskningsråd: 312017 Norges forskningsråd: 316618 Notur/NorStore: nn9039K Trond Mohn stiftelse: BFS2018TMT01 Notur/NorStore: NS9039K Notur/NorStore: ns9207K Notur/NorStore: nn9385k urn:issn:0930-7575 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2936746 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05868-9 cristin:1926273 Climate Dynamics. 2021, 57, 3223-3243. Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no Copyright 2021 the authors Climate Dynamics 3223-3243 57 Journal article Peer reviewed 2021 ftunivbergen https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05868-9 2023-03-14T17:40:21Z Instrumental records suggest multidecadal variability in Arctic surface temperature throughout the twentieth century. This variability is caused by a combination of external forcing and internal variability, but their relative importance remains unclear. Since the early twentieth century Arctic warming has been linked to decadal variability in the Pacific, we hypothesize that the Pacific could impact decadal temperature trends in the Arctic throughout the twentieth century. To investigate this, we compare two ensembles of historical all-forcing twentieth century simulations with the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM): (1) a fully coupled ensemble and (2) an ensemble where momentum flux anomalies from reanalysis are prescribed over the Indo-Pacific Ocean to constrain Pacific sea surface temperature variability. We find that the combined effect of tropical and extratropical Pacific decadal variability can explain up to ~ 50% of the observed decadal surface temperature trends in the Arctic. The Pacific-Arctic connection involves both lower tropospheric horizontal advection and subsidence-induced adiabatic heating, mediated by Aleutian Low variations. This link is detected across the twentieth century, but the response in Arctic surface temperature is moderated by external forcing and surface feedbacks. Our results also indicate that increased ocean heat transport from the Atlantic to the Arctic could have compensated for the impact of a cooling Pacific at the turn of the twenty-first century. These results have implications for understanding the present Arctic warming and future climate variations. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper aleutian low Arctic Pacific Arctic University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) Arctic Pacific Climate Dynamics 57 11-12 3223 3243 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivbergen |
language |
English |
description |
Instrumental records suggest multidecadal variability in Arctic surface temperature throughout the twentieth century. This variability is caused by a combination of external forcing and internal variability, but their relative importance remains unclear. Since the early twentieth century Arctic warming has been linked to decadal variability in the Pacific, we hypothesize that the Pacific could impact decadal temperature trends in the Arctic throughout the twentieth century. To investigate this, we compare two ensembles of historical all-forcing twentieth century simulations with the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM): (1) a fully coupled ensemble and (2) an ensemble where momentum flux anomalies from reanalysis are prescribed over the Indo-Pacific Ocean to constrain Pacific sea surface temperature variability. We find that the combined effect of tropical and extratropical Pacific decadal variability can explain up to ~ 50% of the observed decadal surface temperature trends in the Arctic. The Pacific-Arctic connection involves both lower tropospheric horizontal advection and subsidence-induced adiabatic heating, mediated by Aleutian Low variations. This link is detected across the twentieth century, but the response in Arctic surface temperature is moderated by external forcing and surface feedbacks. Our results also indicate that increased ocean heat transport from the Atlantic to the Arctic could have compensated for the impact of a cooling Pacific at the turn of the twenty-first century. These results have implications for understanding the present Arctic warming and future climate variations. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Svendsen, Lea Keenlyside, Noel Muilwijk, Morven Bethke, Ingo Omrani, Nour-Eddine Gao, Yongqi |
spellingShingle |
Svendsen, Lea Keenlyside, Noel Muilwijk, Morven Bethke, Ingo Omrani, Nour-Eddine Gao, Yongqi Pacific contribution to decadal surface temperature trends in the Arctic during the twentieth century |
author_facet |
Svendsen, Lea Keenlyside, Noel Muilwijk, Morven Bethke, Ingo Omrani, Nour-Eddine Gao, Yongqi |
author_sort |
Svendsen, Lea |
title |
Pacific contribution to decadal surface temperature trends in the Arctic during the twentieth century |
title_short |
Pacific contribution to decadal surface temperature trends in the Arctic during the twentieth century |
title_full |
Pacific contribution to decadal surface temperature trends in the Arctic during the twentieth century |
title_fullStr |
Pacific contribution to decadal surface temperature trends in the Arctic during the twentieth century |
title_full_unstemmed |
Pacific contribution to decadal surface temperature trends in the Arctic during the twentieth century |
title_sort |
pacific contribution to decadal surface temperature trends in the arctic during the twentieth century |
publisher |
Springer |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2936746 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05868-9 |
geographic |
Arctic Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Pacific |
genre |
aleutian low Arctic Pacific Arctic |
genre_facet |
aleutian low Arctic Pacific Arctic |
op_source |
Climate Dynamics 3223-3243 57 |
op_relation |
Norges forskningsråd: 312017 Norges forskningsråd: 316618 Notur/NorStore: nn9039K Trond Mohn stiftelse: BFS2018TMT01 Notur/NorStore: NS9039K Notur/NorStore: ns9207K Notur/NorStore: nn9385k urn:issn:0930-7575 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2936746 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05868-9 cristin:1926273 Climate Dynamics. 2021, 57, 3223-3243. |
op_rights |
Navngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no Copyright 2021 the authors |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05868-9 |
container_title |
Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
57 |
container_issue |
11-12 |
container_start_page |
3223 |
op_container_end_page |
3243 |
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1766266570436247552 |