Centennial relationships between ocean temperature and Atlantic puffin production reveal shifting decennial trends
The current warming of the oceans has been shown to have detrimental effects for a number of species. An understanding of the underlying mechanisms may be hampered by the non-linearity and non-stationarity of the relationships between temperature and demography, and by the insufficient length of ava...
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2766094 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15665 |
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ftunivbergen:oai:bora.uib.no:11250/2766094 2023-05-15T15:13:58+02:00 Centennial relationships between ocean temperature and Atlantic puffin production reveal shifting decennial trends Hansen, Erpur S. Sandvik, Hanno Erikstad, Kjell E. Yoccoz, Nigel Anker-Nilssen, Tycho Bader, Jürgen Descamps, Sebastien Hodges, Kevin Mesquita, Michel d. S. Reiertsen, Tone Kristin Varpe, Øystein 2021 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2766094 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15665 eng eng Wiley Framsenteret: Flaggskip kystøkologi Norges forskningsråd: 223257 urn:issn:1354-1013 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2766094 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15665 cristin:1910637 Global Change Biology. 2021, 27 (16), 3753-3764. Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.no Copyright 2021 The Authors. Global Change Biology 3753-3764 27 16 VDP::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480 VDP::Zoology and botany: 480 Journal article Peer reviewed 2021 ftunivbergen https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15665 2023-03-14T17:40:28Z The current warming of the oceans has been shown to have detrimental effects for a number of species. An understanding of the underlying mechanisms may be hampered by the non-linearity and non-stationarity of the relationships between temperature and demography, and by the insufficient length of available time series. Most demographic time series are too short to study the effects of climate on wildlife in the classical sense of meteorological patterns over at least 30 years. Here we present a harvest time series of Atlantic puffins (Fratercula arctica) that goes back as far as 1880. It originates in the world's largest puffin colony, in southwest Iceland, which has recently experienced a strong decline. By estimating an annual chick production index for 128 years, we found prolonged periods of strong correlations between local sea surface temperature (SST) and chick production. The sign of decennial correlations switches three times during this period, where the phases of strong negative correlations between puffin productivity and SST correspond to the early 20th century Arctic warming period and to the most recent decades. Most of the variation (72%) in chick production is explained by a model in which productivity peaks at an SST of 7.1°C, clearly rejecting the assumption of a linear relationship. There is also evidence supporting non-stationarity: The SST at which puffins production peaked has increased by 0.24°C during the 20th century, although the increase in average SST during the same period has been more than three times faster. The best supported models indicate that the population's decline is at least partially caused by the increasing SST around Iceland. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Atlantic puffin fratercula Fratercula arctica Iceland University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) Arctic Global Change Biology 27 16 3753 3764 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivbergen |
language |
English |
topic |
VDP::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480 VDP::Zoology and botany: 480 |
spellingShingle |
VDP::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480 VDP::Zoology and botany: 480 Hansen, Erpur S. Sandvik, Hanno Erikstad, Kjell E. Yoccoz, Nigel Anker-Nilssen, Tycho Bader, Jürgen Descamps, Sebastien Hodges, Kevin Mesquita, Michel d. S. Reiertsen, Tone Kristin Varpe, Øystein Centennial relationships between ocean temperature and Atlantic puffin production reveal shifting decennial trends |
topic_facet |
VDP::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480 VDP::Zoology and botany: 480 |
description |
The current warming of the oceans has been shown to have detrimental effects for a number of species. An understanding of the underlying mechanisms may be hampered by the non-linearity and non-stationarity of the relationships between temperature and demography, and by the insufficient length of available time series. Most demographic time series are too short to study the effects of climate on wildlife in the classical sense of meteorological patterns over at least 30 years. Here we present a harvest time series of Atlantic puffins (Fratercula arctica) that goes back as far as 1880. It originates in the world's largest puffin colony, in southwest Iceland, which has recently experienced a strong decline. By estimating an annual chick production index for 128 years, we found prolonged periods of strong correlations between local sea surface temperature (SST) and chick production. The sign of decennial correlations switches three times during this period, where the phases of strong negative correlations between puffin productivity and SST correspond to the early 20th century Arctic warming period and to the most recent decades. Most of the variation (72%) in chick production is explained by a model in which productivity peaks at an SST of 7.1°C, clearly rejecting the assumption of a linear relationship. There is also evidence supporting non-stationarity: The SST at which puffins production peaked has increased by 0.24°C during the 20th century, although the increase in average SST during the same period has been more than three times faster. The best supported models indicate that the population's decline is at least partially caused by the increasing SST around Iceland. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hansen, Erpur S. Sandvik, Hanno Erikstad, Kjell E. Yoccoz, Nigel Anker-Nilssen, Tycho Bader, Jürgen Descamps, Sebastien Hodges, Kevin Mesquita, Michel d. S. Reiertsen, Tone Kristin Varpe, Øystein |
author_facet |
Hansen, Erpur S. Sandvik, Hanno Erikstad, Kjell E. Yoccoz, Nigel Anker-Nilssen, Tycho Bader, Jürgen Descamps, Sebastien Hodges, Kevin Mesquita, Michel d. S. Reiertsen, Tone Kristin Varpe, Øystein |
author_sort |
Hansen, Erpur S. |
title |
Centennial relationships between ocean temperature and Atlantic puffin production reveal shifting decennial trends |
title_short |
Centennial relationships between ocean temperature and Atlantic puffin production reveal shifting decennial trends |
title_full |
Centennial relationships between ocean temperature and Atlantic puffin production reveal shifting decennial trends |
title_fullStr |
Centennial relationships between ocean temperature and Atlantic puffin production reveal shifting decennial trends |
title_full_unstemmed |
Centennial relationships between ocean temperature and Atlantic puffin production reveal shifting decennial trends |
title_sort |
centennial relationships between ocean temperature and atlantic puffin production reveal shifting decennial trends |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2766094 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15665 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Atlantic puffin fratercula Fratercula arctica Iceland |
genre_facet |
Arctic Atlantic puffin fratercula Fratercula arctica Iceland |
op_source |
Global Change Biology 3753-3764 27 16 |
op_relation |
Framsenteret: Flaggskip kystøkologi Norges forskningsråd: 223257 urn:issn:1354-1013 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2766094 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15665 cristin:1910637 Global Change Biology. 2021, 27 (16), 3753-3764. |
op_rights |
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.no Copyright 2021 The Authors. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15665 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
container_volume |
27 |
container_issue |
16 |
container_start_page |
3753 |
op_container_end_page |
3764 |
_version_ |
1766344474011631616 |