Evaluation of a sub-kilometre NWP system in an Arctic fjord-valley system in winter
Terrain challenges the prediction of near-surface atmospheric conditions, even in kilometre-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In this study, the ALADIN-HIRLAM NWP system with 0.5 km horizontal grid spacing and an increased number of vertical levels is compared to the 2.5-km model syst...
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2753564 https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2020.1838181 |
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ftunivbergen:oai:bora.uib.no:11250/2753564 2023-05-15T14:55:55+02:00 Evaluation of a sub-kilometre NWP system in an Arctic fjord-valley system in winter Valkonen, Teresa Maaria Stoll, Patrick Batrak, Yurii Køltzow, Morten Andreas Ødegaard Schneider, Thea Maria Stigter, Emmy E. Aashamar, Ola B. Støylen, Eivind Jonassen, Marius Opsanger 2020 application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2753564 https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2020.1838181 eng eng Taylor & Francis urn:issn:0280-6495 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2753564 https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2020.1838181 cristin:1881645 Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography. 2020, 72 (1), 1838181 Navngivelse-Ikkekommersiell 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/deed.no Copyright 2020 The Author(s). 1838181 Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography 72 1 Journal article Peer reviewed 2020 ftunivbergen https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2020.1838181 2023-03-14T17:39:31Z Terrain challenges the prediction of near-surface atmospheric conditions, even in kilometre-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In this study, the ALADIN-HIRLAM NWP system with 0.5 km horizontal grid spacing and an increased number of vertical levels is compared to the 2.5-km model system similar to the currently operational NWP system at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute. The impact of the increased resolution on the forecasts’ ability to represent boundary-layer processes is investigated for the period from 12 to 16 February 2018 in an Arctic fjord-valley system in the Svalbard archipelago. Model simulations are compared to a wide range of observations conducted during a field campaign. The model configuration with sub-kilometre grid spacing improves both the spatial structure and overall verification scores for the near-surface temperature and wind forecasts compared to the 2.5-km experiment. The sub-kilometre experiment successfully captures the wind channelling through the valley and the temperature field associated with it. In a situation of a cold-air pool development, the sub-kilometre experiment has a particularly high near-surface temperature bias at low elevations. The use of measurement campaign data, however, reveals some encouraging results, e.g. the sub-kilometre system has a more realistic vertical profile of temperature and wind speed, and the surface temperature sensitivity to the net surface energy is closer to the observations. This work demonstrates the potential of sub-kilometre NWP systems for forecasting weather in complex Arctic terrain, and also suggests that the increase in resolution needs to be accompanied with further development of other parts of the model system. publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Svalbard University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) Arctic Svalbard Svalbard Archipelago Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography 72 1 1838181 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivbergen |
language |
English |
description |
Terrain challenges the prediction of near-surface atmospheric conditions, even in kilometre-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In this study, the ALADIN-HIRLAM NWP system with 0.5 km horizontal grid spacing and an increased number of vertical levels is compared to the 2.5-km model system similar to the currently operational NWP system at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute. The impact of the increased resolution on the forecasts’ ability to represent boundary-layer processes is investigated for the period from 12 to 16 February 2018 in an Arctic fjord-valley system in the Svalbard archipelago. Model simulations are compared to a wide range of observations conducted during a field campaign. The model configuration with sub-kilometre grid spacing improves both the spatial structure and overall verification scores for the near-surface temperature and wind forecasts compared to the 2.5-km experiment. The sub-kilometre experiment successfully captures the wind channelling through the valley and the temperature field associated with it. In a situation of a cold-air pool development, the sub-kilometre experiment has a particularly high near-surface temperature bias at low elevations. The use of measurement campaign data, however, reveals some encouraging results, e.g. the sub-kilometre system has a more realistic vertical profile of temperature and wind speed, and the surface temperature sensitivity to the net surface energy is closer to the observations. This work demonstrates the potential of sub-kilometre NWP systems for forecasting weather in complex Arctic terrain, and also suggests that the increase in resolution needs to be accompanied with further development of other parts of the model system. publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Valkonen, Teresa Maaria Stoll, Patrick Batrak, Yurii Køltzow, Morten Andreas Ødegaard Schneider, Thea Maria Stigter, Emmy E. Aashamar, Ola B. Støylen, Eivind Jonassen, Marius Opsanger |
spellingShingle |
Valkonen, Teresa Maaria Stoll, Patrick Batrak, Yurii Køltzow, Morten Andreas Ødegaard Schneider, Thea Maria Stigter, Emmy E. Aashamar, Ola B. Støylen, Eivind Jonassen, Marius Opsanger Evaluation of a sub-kilometre NWP system in an Arctic fjord-valley system in winter |
author_facet |
Valkonen, Teresa Maaria Stoll, Patrick Batrak, Yurii Køltzow, Morten Andreas Ødegaard Schneider, Thea Maria Stigter, Emmy E. Aashamar, Ola B. Støylen, Eivind Jonassen, Marius Opsanger |
author_sort |
Valkonen, Teresa Maaria |
title |
Evaluation of a sub-kilometre NWP system in an Arctic fjord-valley system in winter |
title_short |
Evaluation of a sub-kilometre NWP system in an Arctic fjord-valley system in winter |
title_full |
Evaluation of a sub-kilometre NWP system in an Arctic fjord-valley system in winter |
title_fullStr |
Evaluation of a sub-kilometre NWP system in an Arctic fjord-valley system in winter |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evaluation of a sub-kilometre NWP system in an Arctic fjord-valley system in winter |
title_sort |
evaluation of a sub-kilometre nwp system in an arctic fjord-valley system in winter |
publisher |
Taylor & Francis |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2753564 https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2020.1838181 |
geographic |
Arctic Svalbard Svalbard Archipelago |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Svalbard Svalbard Archipelago |
genre |
Arctic Svalbard |
genre_facet |
Arctic Svalbard |
op_source |
1838181 Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography 72 1 |
op_relation |
urn:issn:0280-6495 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2753564 https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2020.1838181 cristin:1881645 Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography. 2020, 72 (1), 1838181 |
op_rights |
Navngivelse-Ikkekommersiell 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/deed.no Copyright 2020 The Author(s). |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2020.1838181 |
container_title |
Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography |
container_volume |
72 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
1838181 |
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1766327934193238016 |