The climate and biomes of Europe at 6000 yr BP: Comparison of model simulations and pollen-based reconstructions
International audience C-14-dated pollen and lake-level data from Europe are used to assess the spatial patterns of climate change between 6000 yr BP and present, as simulated by the NCAR CCM1 (National Center for Atmospheric Research, Community Climate Model, version 1) in response to the change in...
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-01457638 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(98)00016-X |
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ftunivavignon:oai:HAL:hal-01457638v1 2024-06-23T07:52:43+00:00 The climate and biomes of Europe at 6000 yr BP: Comparison of model simulations and pollen-based reconstructions Prentice, Ic Harrison, Sp Jolly, D Guiot, Joel Centre Européen de Recherche et d'Enseignement des Géosciences de l'Environnement (CEREGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Collège de France (CdF (institution))-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Institut Méditerranéen d'Ecologie et de Paléoécologie (IMEP) Université Paul Cézanne - Aix-Marseille 3-Université de Provence - Aix-Marseille 1-Avignon Université (AU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) 1998 https://hal.science/hal-01457638 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(98)00016-X en eng HAL CCSD Elsevier info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/S0277-3791(98)00016-X hal-01457638 https://hal.science/hal-01457638 doi:10.1016/S0277-3791(98)00016-X ISSN: 0277-3791 EISSN: 1873-457X Quaternary Science Reviews https://hal.science/hal-01457638 Quaternary Science Reviews, 1998, 17 (6-7), pp.659-668. ⟨10.1016/S0277-3791(98)00016-X⟩ [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 1998 ftunivavignon https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(98)00016-X 2024-06-10T23:49:39Z International audience C-14-dated pollen and lake-level data from Europe are used to assess the spatial patterns of climate change between 6000 yr BP and present, as simulated by the NCAR CCM1 (National Center for Atmospheric Research, Community Climate Model, version 1) in response to the change in the Earth's orbital parameters during this period. First, reconstructed 6000 yr BP values of bioclimate variables obtained from pollen and lake-level data with the constrained-analogue technique are compared with simulated values. Then a 6000 yr BP biome map obtained from pollen data with an objective biome reconstruction (biomization) technique is compared with BIOME model results derived from the same simulation. Data and simulations agree in some features: warmer-than-present glowing seasons in N and C Europe allowed forests to extend further north and to higher elevations than today, and warmer winters in C and E Europe prevented boreal conifers from spreading west. More generally, however, the agreement is poor. Predominantly deciduous forest types in Fennoscandia imply warmer winters than the model allows. The model fails to simulate winters cold enough, or summers wet enough, to allow temperate deciduous forests their former extended distribution in S Europe, and it incorrectly simulates a much expanded area of steppe vegetation in SE Europe. Similar errors have also been noted in numerous 6000 yr BP simulations with prescribed modern sea surface temperatures. These errors are evidently not resolved by the inclusion of interactive sea-surface conditions in the CCM1. Accurate representation of mid-Holocene climates in Europe may require the inclusion of dynamical ocean-atmosphere and/or vegetation-atmosphere interactions that most palaeoclimate model simulations have so far disregarded. (C) Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. Article in Journal/Newspaper Fennoscandia Université d'Avignon et des Pays de Vaucluse: HAL Quaternary Science Reviews 17 6-7 659 668 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Université d'Avignon et des Pays de Vaucluse: HAL |
op_collection_id |
ftunivavignon |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
spellingShingle |
[SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes Prentice, Ic Harrison, Sp Jolly, D Guiot, Joel The climate and biomes of Europe at 6000 yr BP: Comparison of model simulations and pollen-based reconstructions |
topic_facet |
[SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
description |
International audience C-14-dated pollen and lake-level data from Europe are used to assess the spatial patterns of climate change between 6000 yr BP and present, as simulated by the NCAR CCM1 (National Center for Atmospheric Research, Community Climate Model, version 1) in response to the change in the Earth's orbital parameters during this period. First, reconstructed 6000 yr BP values of bioclimate variables obtained from pollen and lake-level data with the constrained-analogue technique are compared with simulated values. Then a 6000 yr BP biome map obtained from pollen data with an objective biome reconstruction (biomization) technique is compared with BIOME model results derived from the same simulation. Data and simulations agree in some features: warmer-than-present glowing seasons in N and C Europe allowed forests to extend further north and to higher elevations than today, and warmer winters in C and E Europe prevented boreal conifers from spreading west. More generally, however, the agreement is poor. Predominantly deciduous forest types in Fennoscandia imply warmer winters than the model allows. The model fails to simulate winters cold enough, or summers wet enough, to allow temperate deciduous forests their former extended distribution in S Europe, and it incorrectly simulates a much expanded area of steppe vegetation in SE Europe. Similar errors have also been noted in numerous 6000 yr BP simulations with prescribed modern sea surface temperatures. These errors are evidently not resolved by the inclusion of interactive sea-surface conditions in the CCM1. Accurate representation of mid-Holocene climates in Europe may require the inclusion of dynamical ocean-atmosphere and/or vegetation-atmosphere interactions that most palaeoclimate model simulations have so far disregarded. (C) Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. |
author2 |
Centre Européen de Recherche et d'Enseignement des Géosciences de l'Environnement (CEREGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Collège de France (CdF (institution))-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Institut Méditerranéen d'Ecologie et de Paléoécologie (IMEP) Université Paul Cézanne - Aix-Marseille 3-Université de Provence - Aix-Marseille 1-Avignon Université (AU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Prentice, Ic Harrison, Sp Jolly, D Guiot, Joel |
author_facet |
Prentice, Ic Harrison, Sp Jolly, D Guiot, Joel |
author_sort |
Prentice, Ic |
title |
The climate and biomes of Europe at 6000 yr BP: Comparison of model simulations and pollen-based reconstructions |
title_short |
The climate and biomes of Europe at 6000 yr BP: Comparison of model simulations and pollen-based reconstructions |
title_full |
The climate and biomes of Europe at 6000 yr BP: Comparison of model simulations and pollen-based reconstructions |
title_fullStr |
The climate and biomes of Europe at 6000 yr BP: Comparison of model simulations and pollen-based reconstructions |
title_full_unstemmed |
The climate and biomes of Europe at 6000 yr BP: Comparison of model simulations and pollen-based reconstructions |
title_sort |
climate and biomes of europe at 6000 yr bp: comparison of model simulations and pollen-based reconstructions |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
1998 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-01457638 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(98)00016-X |
genre |
Fennoscandia |
genre_facet |
Fennoscandia |
op_source |
ISSN: 0277-3791 EISSN: 1873-457X Quaternary Science Reviews https://hal.science/hal-01457638 Quaternary Science Reviews, 1998, 17 (6-7), pp.659-668. ⟨10.1016/S0277-3791(98)00016-X⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/S0277-3791(98)00016-X hal-01457638 https://hal.science/hal-01457638 doi:10.1016/S0277-3791(98)00016-X |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(98)00016-X |
container_title |
Quaternary Science Reviews |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
6-7 |
container_start_page |
659 |
op_container_end_page |
668 |
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1802644089181569024 |