Seasonal Responses of Terrestrial Carbon Cycle to Climate Variations in CMIP5 Models: Evaluation and Projection

• Published in: Journal of Climate
• Main Authors: Liu, Yongwen, Piao, Shilong, Lian, Xu, Ciais, Philippe, Smith, W. Kolby
• Other Authors: Univ Arizona, Sch Nat Resources & Environm, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China, Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, and Key Laboratory of Alpine Ecology and Biodiversity, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, and Chinese Academy of Sciences Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ, Gif Sur Yvette, France, School of Natural Resources and the Environment, The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC 2017
• Subjects: Land Surface; Vegetation; Coupled models; Subarctic
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10150/625331; https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0555.1

Seventeen Earth system models (ESMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were evaluated, focusing on the seasonal sensitivities of net biome production (NBP), net primary production (NPP), and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) to interannual variations in temperature and precipitation during 1982-2005 and their changes over the twenty-first century. Temperature sensitivity of NPP in ESMs was generally consistent across northern high-latitude biomes but significantly more negative for tropical and subtropical biomes relative to satellite-derived estimates. The temperature sensitivity of NBP in both inversion-based and ESM estimates was generally consistent in March-May (MAM) and September-November (SON) for tropical forests, semiarid ecosystems, and boreal forests. By contrast, for inversion-based NBP estimates, temperature sensitivity of NBP was nonsignificant for June-August (JJA) for all biomes except boreal forest; whereas, for ESM NBP estimates, the temperature sensitivity for JJA was significantly negative for all biomes except shrublands and subarctic ecosystems. Both satellite-derivedNPP and inversion-based NBP are often decoupled from precipitation, whereas ESM NPP and NBP estimates are generally positively correlated with precipitation, suggesting that ESMs are oversensitive to precipitation. Over the twenty-first century, changes in temperature sensitivities of NPP, Rh, and NBP are consistent across all RCPs but stronger under more intensive scenarios. The temperature sensitivity of NBP was found to decrease in tropics and subtropics and increase in northern high latitudes in MAM due to an increased temperature sensitivity of NPP. Across all biomes, projected temperature sensitivity of NPP decreased in JJA and SON. Projected precipitation sensitivity of NBP did not change across biomes, except over grasslands in MAM. National Natural Science Foundation of China [41530528, 41561134016]; 111 Project; National Youth Top-notch Talent Support Program in China; European Research Council Synergy Grant [ERC-2013-SyG-610028 IMBALANCE-P] 6 month embargo; Published online: 19 July 2017 This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at [e-mail].