Potential for redistribution of post-moult habitat for **Eudyptes penguins** in the Southern Ocean under future climate conditions
Abstract: Anthropogenic climate change is resulting in spatial redistributions of many species. We assessed the potential effects of climate change on an abundant and widely distributed group of diving birds, Eudyptes penguins, which are the main avian consumers in the Southern Ocean in terms of bio...
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10067/1920880151162165141 https://repository.uantwerpen.be/docstore/d:irua:15097 |
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ftunivantwerpen:c:irua:192088 2024-10-06T13:52:57+00:00 Potential for redistribution of post-moult habitat for **Eudyptes penguins** in the Southern Ocean under future climate conditions Green, Cara-Paige Green, David B. Ratcliffe, Norman Thompson, David Lea, Mary-Anne Baylis, Alastair M.M. Bond, Alexander L. Bost, Charles-Andre Crofts, Sarah Cuthbert, Richard J. Gonzalez-Solis, Jacob Morrison, Kyle W. Poisbleau, Maud Putz, Klemens Rey, Andrea Raya Ryan, Peter G. Sagar, Paul M. Steinfurth, Antje Thiebot, Jean-Baptiste Tierney, Megan Whitehead, Thomas Otto Wotherspoon, Simon Hindell, Mark A. 2023 https://hdl.handle.net/10067/1920880151162165141 https://repository.uantwerpen.be/docstore/d:irua:15097 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/GCB.16500 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/isi/000882562300001 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess 1354-1013 Global change biology Chemistry Biology info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2023 ftunivantwerpen https://doi.org/10.1111/GCB.16500 2024-09-10T04:06:36Z Abstract: Anthropogenic climate change is resulting in spatial redistributions of many species. We assessed the potential effects of climate change on an abundant and widely distributed group of diving birds, Eudyptes penguins, which are the main avian consumers in the Southern Ocean in terms of biomass consumption. Despite their abundance, several of these species have undergone population declines over the past century, potentially due to changing oceanography and prey availability over the important winter months. We used light-based geolocation tracking data for 485 individuals deployed between 2006 and 2020 across 10 of the major breeding locations for five taxa of Eudyptes penguins. We used boosted regression tree modelling to quantify post-moult habitat preference for southern rockhopper (E. chrysocome), eastern rockhopper (E. filholi), northern rockhopper (E. moseleyi) and macaroni/royal (E. chrysolophus and E. schlegeli) penguins. We then modelled their redistribution under two climate change scenarios, representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (for the end of the century, 2071-2100). As climate forcings differ regionally, we quantified redistribution in the Atlantic, Central Indian, East Indian, West Pacific and East Pacific regions. We found sea surface temperature and sea surface height to be the most important predictors of current habitat for these penguins; physical features that are changing rapidly in the Southern Ocean. Our results indicated that the less severe RCP4.5 would lead to less habitat loss than the more severe RCP8.5. The five taxa of penguin may experience a general poleward redistribution of their preferred habitat, but with contrasting effects in the (i) change in total area of preferred habitat under climate change (ii) according to geographic region and (iii) the species (macaroni/royal vs. rockhopper populations). Our results provide further understanding on the regional impacts and vulnerability of species to climate change. Article in Journal/Newspaper Southern Ocean IRUA - Institutional Repository van de Universiteit Antwerpen Indian Pacific Southern Ocean Global Change Biology |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
IRUA - Institutional Repository van de Universiteit Antwerpen |
op_collection_id |
ftunivantwerpen |
language |
English |
topic |
Chemistry Biology |
spellingShingle |
Chemistry Biology Green, Cara-Paige Green, David B. Ratcliffe, Norman Thompson, David Lea, Mary-Anne Baylis, Alastair M.M. Bond, Alexander L. Bost, Charles-Andre Crofts, Sarah Cuthbert, Richard J. Gonzalez-Solis, Jacob Morrison, Kyle W. Poisbleau, Maud Putz, Klemens Rey, Andrea Raya Ryan, Peter G. Sagar, Paul M. Steinfurth, Antje Thiebot, Jean-Baptiste Tierney, Megan Whitehead, Thomas Otto Wotherspoon, Simon Hindell, Mark A. Potential for redistribution of post-moult habitat for **Eudyptes penguins** in the Southern Ocean under future climate conditions |
topic_facet |
Chemistry Biology |
description |
Abstract: Anthropogenic climate change is resulting in spatial redistributions of many species. We assessed the potential effects of climate change on an abundant and widely distributed group of diving birds, Eudyptes penguins, which are the main avian consumers in the Southern Ocean in terms of biomass consumption. Despite their abundance, several of these species have undergone population declines over the past century, potentially due to changing oceanography and prey availability over the important winter months. We used light-based geolocation tracking data for 485 individuals deployed between 2006 and 2020 across 10 of the major breeding locations for five taxa of Eudyptes penguins. We used boosted regression tree modelling to quantify post-moult habitat preference for southern rockhopper (E. chrysocome), eastern rockhopper (E. filholi), northern rockhopper (E. moseleyi) and macaroni/royal (E. chrysolophus and E. schlegeli) penguins. We then modelled their redistribution under two climate change scenarios, representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (for the end of the century, 2071-2100). As climate forcings differ regionally, we quantified redistribution in the Atlantic, Central Indian, East Indian, West Pacific and East Pacific regions. We found sea surface temperature and sea surface height to be the most important predictors of current habitat for these penguins; physical features that are changing rapidly in the Southern Ocean. Our results indicated that the less severe RCP4.5 would lead to less habitat loss than the more severe RCP8.5. The five taxa of penguin may experience a general poleward redistribution of their preferred habitat, but with contrasting effects in the (i) change in total area of preferred habitat under climate change (ii) according to geographic region and (iii) the species (macaroni/royal vs. rockhopper populations). Our results provide further understanding on the regional impacts and vulnerability of species to climate change. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Green, Cara-Paige Green, David B. Ratcliffe, Norman Thompson, David Lea, Mary-Anne Baylis, Alastair M.M. Bond, Alexander L. Bost, Charles-Andre Crofts, Sarah Cuthbert, Richard J. Gonzalez-Solis, Jacob Morrison, Kyle W. Poisbleau, Maud Putz, Klemens Rey, Andrea Raya Ryan, Peter G. Sagar, Paul M. Steinfurth, Antje Thiebot, Jean-Baptiste Tierney, Megan Whitehead, Thomas Otto Wotherspoon, Simon Hindell, Mark A. |
author_facet |
Green, Cara-Paige Green, David B. Ratcliffe, Norman Thompson, David Lea, Mary-Anne Baylis, Alastair M.M. Bond, Alexander L. Bost, Charles-Andre Crofts, Sarah Cuthbert, Richard J. Gonzalez-Solis, Jacob Morrison, Kyle W. Poisbleau, Maud Putz, Klemens Rey, Andrea Raya Ryan, Peter G. Sagar, Paul M. Steinfurth, Antje Thiebot, Jean-Baptiste Tierney, Megan Whitehead, Thomas Otto Wotherspoon, Simon Hindell, Mark A. |
author_sort |
Green, Cara-Paige |
title |
Potential for redistribution of post-moult habitat for **Eudyptes penguins** in the Southern Ocean under future climate conditions |
title_short |
Potential for redistribution of post-moult habitat for **Eudyptes penguins** in the Southern Ocean under future climate conditions |
title_full |
Potential for redistribution of post-moult habitat for **Eudyptes penguins** in the Southern Ocean under future climate conditions |
title_fullStr |
Potential for redistribution of post-moult habitat for **Eudyptes penguins** in the Southern Ocean under future climate conditions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Potential for redistribution of post-moult habitat for **Eudyptes penguins** in the Southern Ocean under future climate conditions |
title_sort |
potential for redistribution of post-moult habitat for **eudyptes penguins** in the southern ocean under future climate conditions |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10067/1920880151162165141 https://repository.uantwerpen.be/docstore/d:irua:15097 |
geographic |
Indian Pacific Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Indian Pacific Southern Ocean |
genre |
Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Southern Ocean |
op_source |
1354-1013 Global change biology |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/GCB.16500 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/isi/000882562300001 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/GCB.16500 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
_version_ |
1812181560559927296 |