Automatic detection of abrupt transitions in paleoclimate records
International audience Bifurcations and tipping points (TPs) are an important part of the Earth system’s behavior. These critical points represent thresholds at which small changes in the system’s parameters or in the forcing abruptly switch it from one state or type of behavior to another. Current...
Published in: | Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science |
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ftunivantilles:oai:HAL:insu-03462705v1 2024-06-23T07:53:44+00:00 Automatic detection of abrupt transitions in paleoclimate records Bagniewski, W. Ghil, M. Rousseau, Denis-Didier Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL) Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) Columbia University New York Géosciences Montpellier Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université des Antilles (UA) 2021-11 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03462705 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03462705/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-03462705/file/DDR_Chaos_Bagniewski2021.pdf https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0062543 en eng HAL CCSD American Institute of Physics info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1063/5.0062543 insu-03462705 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03462705 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03462705/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-03462705/file/DDR_Chaos_Bagniewski2021.pdf doi:10.1063/5.0062543 http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/licences/copyright/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1054-1500 Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science https://insu.hal.science/insu-03462705 Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 2021, 31 (11), pp.113129. ⟨10.1063/5.0062543⟩ [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2021 ftunivantilles https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0062543 2024-05-27T23:59:45Z International audience Bifurcations and tipping points (TPs) are an important part of the Earth system’s behavior. These critical points represent thresholds at which small changes in the system’s parameters or in the forcing abruptly switch it from one state or type of behavior to another. Current concern with TPs is largely due to the potential of slow anthropogenic forcing to bring about abrupt, and possibly irreversible, change to the physical climate system and impacted ecosystems. Paleoclimate proxy records have been shown to contain abrupt transitions, or “jumps,” which may represent former instances of such dramatic climate change events. These transitions can provide valuable information for identifying critical TPs in current and future climate evolution. Here, we present a robust methodology for detecting abrupt transitions in proxy records that is applied to ice core and speleothem records of the last climate cycle. This methodology is based on the nonparametric Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test for the equality, or not, of the probability distributions associated with two samples drawn from a time series, before and after any potential jump. To improve the detection of abrupt transitions in proxy records, the KS test is augmented by several other criteria and it is compared with recurrence analysis. The augmented KS test results show substantial skill when compared with more subjective criteria for jump detection. This test can also usefully complement recurrence analysis and improve upon certain aspects of its results Article in Journal/Newspaper ice core Université des Antilles (UAG): HAL Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science 31 11 113129 |
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Université des Antilles (UAG): HAL |
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ftunivantilles |
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English |
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[SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] |
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[SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] Bagniewski, W. Ghil, M. Rousseau, Denis-Didier Automatic detection of abrupt transitions in paleoclimate records |
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[SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] |
description |
International audience Bifurcations and tipping points (TPs) are an important part of the Earth system’s behavior. These critical points represent thresholds at which small changes in the system’s parameters or in the forcing abruptly switch it from one state or type of behavior to another. Current concern with TPs is largely due to the potential of slow anthropogenic forcing to bring about abrupt, and possibly irreversible, change to the physical climate system and impacted ecosystems. Paleoclimate proxy records have been shown to contain abrupt transitions, or “jumps,” which may represent former instances of such dramatic climate change events. These transitions can provide valuable information for identifying critical TPs in current and future climate evolution. Here, we present a robust methodology for detecting abrupt transitions in proxy records that is applied to ice core and speleothem records of the last climate cycle. This methodology is based on the nonparametric Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test for the equality, or not, of the probability distributions associated with two samples drawn from a time series, before and after any potential jump. To improve the detection of abrupt transitions in proxy records, the KS test is augmented by several other criteria and it is compared with recurrence analysis. The augmented KS test results show substantial skill when compared with more subjective criteria for jump detection. This test can also usefully complement recurrence analysis and improve upon certain aspects of its results |
author2 |
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL) Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) Columbia University New York Géosciences Montpellier Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université des Antilles (UA) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bagniewski, W. Ghil, M. Rousseau, Denis-Didier |
author_facet |
Bagniewski, W. Ghil, M. Rousseau, Denis-Didier |
author_sort |
Bagniewski, W. |
title |
Automatic detection of abrupt transitions in paleoclimate records |
title_short |
Automatic detection of abrupt transitions in paleoclimate records |
title_full |
Automatic detection of abrupt transitions in paleoclimate records |
title_fullStr |
Automatic detection of abrupt transitions in paleoclimate records |
title_full_unstemmed |
Automatic detection of abrupt transitions in paleoclimate records |
title_sort |
automatic detection of abrupt transitions in paleoclimate records |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://insu.hal.science/insu-03462705 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03462705/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-03462705/file/DDR_Chaos_Bagniewski2021.pdf https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0062543 |
genre |
ice core |
genre_facet |
ice core |
op_source |
ISSN: 1054-1500 Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science https://insu.hal.science/insu-03462705 Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 2021, 31 (11), pp.113129. ⟨10.1063/5.0062543⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1063/5.0062543 insu-03462705 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03462705 https://insu.hal.science/insu-03462705/document https://insu.hal.science/insu-03462705/file/DDR_Chaos_Bagniewski2021.pdf doi:10.1063/5.0062543 |
op_rights |
http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/licences/copyright/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0062543 |
container_title |
Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science |
container_volume |
31 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
113129 |
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1802645513985589248 |