The Paris Agreement objectives will likely halt future declines of emperor penguins

The Paris Agreement is a multinational initiative to combat climate change by keeping a global temperature increase in this century to 2°C above preindustrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C. Until recently, ensembles of coupled climate simulations producing temporal dyn...

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Published in:Global Change Biology
Main Authors: Jenouvrier, S., Holland, M., Iles, D., Labrousse, S., Landrum, L., Garnier, J., Caswell, H., Weimerskirch, H., LaRue, M., Ji, R., Barbraud, C.
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: 2020
Subjects:
Online Access:https://dare.uva.nl/personal/pure/en/publications/the-paris-agreement-objectives-will-likely-halt-future-declines-of-emperor-penguins(f2bc3054-0735-4ed2-8dd6-8280e0e5c175).html
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14864
https://hdl.handle.net/11245.1/f2bc3054-0735-4ed2-8dd6-8280e0e5c175
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spelling ftunivamstpubl:oai:dare.uva.nl:openaire_cris_publications/f2bc3054-0735-4ed2-8dd6-8280e0e5c175 2024-09-30T14:27:06+00:00 The Paris Agreement objectives will likely halt future declines of emperor penguins Jenouvrier, S. Holland, M. Iles, D. Labrousse, S. Landrum, L. Garnier, J. Caswell, H. Weimerskirch, H. LaRue, M. Ji, R. Barbraud, C. 2020-03 https://dare.uva.nl/personal/pure/en/publications/the-paris-agreement-objectives-will-likely-halt-future-declines-of-emperor-penguins(f2bc3054-0735-4ed2-8dd6-8280e0e5c175).html https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14864 https://hdl.handle.net/11245.1/f2bc3054-0735-4ed2-8dd6-8280e0e5c175 eng eng https://dare.uva.nl/personal/pure/en/publications/the-paris-agreement-objectives-will-likely-halt-future-declines-of-emperor-penguins(f2bc3054-0735-4ed2-8dd6-8280e0e5c175).html info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess Jenouvrier , S , Holland , M , Iles , D , Labrousse , S , Landrum , L , Garnier , J , Caswell , H , Weimerskirch , H , LaRue , M , Ji , R & Barbraud , C 2020 , ' The Paris Agreement objectives will likely halt future declines of emperor penguins ' , Global Change Biology , vol. 26 , no. 3 , pp. 1170-1184 . https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14864 article 2020 ftunivamstpubl https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14864 2024-09-12T16:38:38Z The Paris Agreement is a multinational initiative to combat climate change by keeping a global temperature increase in this century to 2°C above preindustrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C. Until recently, ensembles of coupled climate simulations producing temporal dynamics of climate en route to stable global mean temperature at 1.5 and 2°C above preindustrial levels were not available. Hence, the few studies that have assessed the ecological impact of the Paris Agreement used ad‐hoc approaches. The development of new specific mitigation climate simulations now provides an unprecedented opportunity to inform ecological impact assessments. Here we project the dynamics of all known emperor penguin ( Aptenodytes forsteri ) colonies under new climate change scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement objectives using a climate‐dependent‐metapopulation model. Our model includes various dispersal behaviors so that penguins could modulate climate effects through movement and habitat selection. Under business‐as‐usual greenhouse gas emissions, we show that 80% of the colonies are projected to be quasiextinct by 2100, thus the total abundance of emperor penguins is projected to decline by at least 81% relative to its initial size, regardless of dispersal abilities. In contrast, if the Paris Agreement objectives are met, viable emperor penguin refuges will exist in Antarctica, and only 19% and 31% colonies are projected to be quasiextinct by 2100 under the Paris 1.5 and 2 climate scenarios respectively. As a result, the global population is projected to decline by at least by 31% under Paris 1.5 and 44% under Paris 2. However, population growth rates stabilize in 2060 such that the global population will be only declining at 0.07% under Paris 1.5 and 0.34% under Paris 2, thereby halting the global population decline. Hence, global climate policy has a larger capacity to safeguard the future of emperor penguins than their intrinsic dispersal abilities. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica Aptenodytes forsteri Emperor penguins Universiteit van Amsterdam: Digital Academic Repository (UvA DARE) Global Change Biology 26 3 1170 1184
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collection Universiteit van Amsterdam: Digital Academic Repository (UvA DARE)
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language English
description The Paris Agreement is a multinational initiative to combat climate change by keeping a global temperature increase in this century to 2°C above preindustrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C. Until recently, ensembles of coupled climate simulations producing temporal dynamics of climate en route to stable global mean temperature at 1.5 and 2°C above preindustrial levels were not available. Hence, the few studies that have assessed the ecological impact of the Paris Agreement used ad‐hoc approaches. The development of new specific mitigation climate simulations now provides an unprecedented opportunity to inform ecological impact assessments. Here we project the dynamics of all known emperor penguin ( Aptenodytes forsteri ) colonies under new climate change scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement objectives using a climate‐dependent‐metapopulation model. Our model includes various dispersal behaviors so that penguins could modulate climate effects through movement and habitat selection. Under business‐as‐usual greenhouse gas emissions, we show that 80% of the colonies are projected to be quasiextinct by 2100, thus the total abundance of emperor penguins is projected to decline by at least 81% relative to its initial size, regardless of dispersal abilities. In contrast, if the Paris Agreement objectives are met, viable emperor penguin refuges will exist in Antarctica, and only 19% and 31% colonies are projected to be quasiextinct by 2100 under the Paris 1.5 and 2 climate scenarios respectively. As a result, the global population is projected to decline by at least by 31% under Paris 1.5 and 44% under Paris 2. However, population growth rates stabilize in 2060 such that the global population will be only declining at 0.07% under Paris 1.5 and 0.34% under Paris 2, thereby halting the global population decline. Hence, global climate policy has a larger capacity to safeguard the future of emperor penguins than their intrinsic dispersal abilities.
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author Jenouvrier, S.
Holland, M.
Iles, D.
Labrousse, S.
Landrum, L.
Garnier, J.
Caswell, H.
Weimerskirch, H.
LaRue, M.
Ji, R.
Barbraud, C.
spellingShingle Jenouvrier, S.
Holland, M.
Iles, D.
Labrousse, S.
Landrum, L.
Garnier, J.
Caswell, H.
Weimerskirch, H.
LaRue, M.
Ji, R.
Barbraud, C.
The Paris Agreement objectives will likely halt future declines of emperor penguins
author_facet Jenouvrier, S.
Holland, M.
Iles, D.
Labrousse, S.
Landrum, L.
Garnier, J.
Caswell, H.
Weimerskirch, H.
LaRue, M.
Ji, R.
Barbraud, C.
author_sort Jenouvrier, S.
title The Paris Agreement objectives will likely halt future declines of emperor penguins
title_short The Paris Agreement objectives will likely halt future declines of emperor penguins
title_full The Paris Agreement objectives will likely halt future declines of emperor penguins
title_fullStr The Paris Agreement objectives will likely halt future declines of emperor penguins
title_full_unstemmed The Paris Agreement objectives will likely halt future declines of emperor penguins
title_sort paris agreement objectives will likely halt future declines of emperor penguins
publishDate 2020
url https://dare.uva.nl/personal/pure/en/publications/the-paris-agreement-objectives-will-likely-halt-future-declines-of-emperor-penguins(f2bc3054-0735-4ed2-8dd6-8280e0e5c175).html
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14864
https://hdl.handle.net/11245.1/f2bc3054-0735-4ed2-8dd6-8280e0e5c175
genre Antarc*
Antarctica
Aptenodytes forsteri
Emperor penguins
genre_facet Antarc*
Antarctica
Aptenodytes forsteri
Emperor penguins
op_source Jenouvrier , S , Holland , M , Iles , D , Labrousse , S , Landrum , L , Garnier , J , Caswell , H , Weimerskirch , H , LaRue , M , Ji , R & Barbraud , C 2020 , ' The Paris Agreement objectives will likely halt future declines of emperor penguins ' , Global Change Biology , vol. 26 , no. 3 , pp. 1170-1184 . https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14864
op_relation https://dare.uva.nl/personal/pure/en/publications/the-paris-agreement-objectives-will-likely-halt-future-declines-of-emperor-penguins(f2bc3054-0735-4ed2-8dd6-8280e0e5c175).html
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container_title Global Change Biology
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