Interannual Variability of Northwest Australian Tropical Cyclones
Tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the southeast Indian Ocean has been studied far less than other TC basins, such as the North Atlantic and northwest Pacific. The authors examine the interannual TC variability of the northwest Australian (NWAUS) subbasin (0 degrees-35 degrees S, 105 degrees-135 de...
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ftunivalparaiso:oai:scholar.valpo.edu:geomet_fac_pub-1005 2023-05-15T15:17:45+02:00 Interannual Variability of Northwest Australian Tropical Cyclones Goebbert, Kevin H. Leslie, Lance M. 2010-09-01T07:00:00Z https://scholar.valpo.edu/geomet_fac_pub/6 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2010JCLI3362.1 unknown ValpoScholar https://scholar.valpo.edu/geomet_fac_pub/6 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2010JCLI3362.1 Geography and Meteorology Faculty Publications SEASONAL HURRICANE FREQUENCY QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION SEA-SURFACE-TEMPERATURE SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION EL-NINO ATLANTIC OSCILLATION GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT ARCTIC OSCILLATION SOUTHWEST PACIFIC REGION Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology text 2010 ftunivalparaiso 2022-12-25T07:55:59Z Tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the southeast Indian Ocean has been studied far less than other TC basins, such as the North Atlantic and northwest Pacific. The authors examine the interannual TC variability of the northwest Australian (NWAUS) subbasin (0 degrees-35 degrees S, 105 degrees-135 degrees E), using an Australian TC dataset for the 39-yr period of 1970-2008. Thirteen TC metrics are assessed, with emphasis on annual TC frequencies and total TC days. Major findings are that for the NWAUS subbasin, there are annual means of 5.6 TCs and 42.4 TC days, with corresponding small standard deviations of 2.3 storms and 20.0 days. For intense TCs (WMO category 3 and higher), the annual mean TC frequency is 3.0, with a standard deviation of 1.6, and the annual average intense TC days is 7.6 days, with a standard deviation of 4.5 days. There are no significant linear trends in either mean annual TC frequencies or TC days. Notably, all 13 variability metrics show no trends over the 39-yr period and are less dependent upon standard El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variables than many other TC basins, including the rest of the Australian region basin. The largest correlations with TC frequency were geopotential heights for June-August at 925 hPa over the South Atlantic Ocean (r = -0.65) and for April-June at 700 hPa over North America (-0.64). For TC days the largest correlations are geopotential heights for July-September at 1000 hPa over the South Atlantic Ocean (-0.7) and for April-June at 850 hPa over North America (-0.58). Last, wavelet analyses of annual TC frequencies and TC days reveal periodicities at ENSO and decadal time scales. However, the TC dataset is too short for conclusive evidence of multidecadal periodicities. Given the large correlations revealed by this study, developing and testing of a multivariate seasonal TC prediction scheme has commenced, with lead times up to 6 months. Text Arctic North Atlantic South Atlantic Ocean Valparaiso University: ValpoScholar Arctic Indian Pacific |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Valparaiso University: ValpoScholar |
op_collection_id |
ftunivalparaiso |
language |
unknown |
topic |
SEASONAL HURRICANE FREQUENCY QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION SEA-SURFACE-TEMPERATURE SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION EL-NINO ATLANTIC OSCILLATION GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT ARCTIC OSCILLATION SOUTHWEST PACIFIC REGION Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology |
spellingShingle |
SEASONAL HURRICANE FREQUENCY QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION SEA-SURFACE-TEMPERATURE SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION EL-NINO ATLANTIC OSCILLATION GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT ARCTIC OSCILLATION SOUTHWEST PACIFIC REGION Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Goebbert, Kevin H. Leslie, Lance M. Interannual Variability of Northwest Australian Tropical Cyclones |
topic_facet |
SEASONAL HURRICANE FREQUENCY QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION SEA-SURFACE-TEMPERATURE SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION EL-NINO ATLANTIC OSCILLATION GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT ARCTIC OSCILLATION SOUTHWEST PACIFIC REGION Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology |
description |
Tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the southeast Indian Ocean has been studied far less than other TC basins, such as the North Atlantic and northwest Pacific. The authors examine the interannual TC variability of the northwest Australian (NWAUS) subbasin (0 degrees-35 degrees S, 105 degrees-135 degrees E), using an Australian TC dataset for the 39-yr period of 1970-2008. Thirteen TC metrics are assessed, with emphasis on annual TC frequencies and total TC days. Major findings are that for the NWAUS subbasin, there are annual means of 5.6 TCs and 42.4 TC days, with corresponding small standard deviations of 2.3 storms and 20.0 days. For intense TCs (WMO category 3 and higher), the annual mean TC frequency is 3.0, with a standard deviation of 1.6, and the annual average intense TC days is 7.6 days, with a standard deviation of 4.5 days. There are no significant linear trends in either mean annual TC frequencies or TC days. Notably, all 13 variability metrics show no trends over the 39-yr period and are less dependent upon standard El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variables than many other TC basins, including the rest of the Australian region basin. The largest correlations with TC frequency were geopotential heights for June-August at 925 hPa over the South Atlantic Ocean (r = -0.65) and for April-June at 700 hPa over North America (-0.64). For TC days the largest correlations are geopotential heights for July-September at 1000 hPa over the South Atlantic Ocean (-0.7) and for April-June at 850 hPa over North America (-0.58). Last, wavelet analyses of annual TC frequencies and TC days reveal periodicities at ENSO and decadal time scales. However, the TC dataset is too short for conclusive evidence of multidecadal periodicities. Given the large correlations revealed by this study, developing and testing of a multivariate seasonal TC prediction scheme has commenced, with lead times up to 6 months. |
format |
Text |
author |
Goebbert, Kevin H. Leslie, Lance M. |
author_facet |
Goebbert, Kevin H. Leslie, Lance M. |
author_sort |
Goebbert, Kevin H. |
title |
Interannual Variability of Northwest Australian Tropical Cyclones |
title_short |
Interannual Variability of Northwest Australian Tropical Cyclones |
title_full |
Interannual Variability of Northwest Australian Tropical Cyclones |
title_fullStr |
Interannual Variability of Northwest Australian Tropical Cyclones |
title_full_unstemmed |
Interannual Variability of Northwest Australian Tropical Cyclones |
title_sort |
interannual variability of northwest australian tropical cyclones |
publisher |
ValpoScholar |
publishDate |
2010 |
url |
https://scholar.valpo.edu/geomet_fac_pub/6 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2010JCLI3362.1 |
geographic |
Arctic Indian Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Indian Pacific |
genre |
Arctic North Atlantic South Atlantic Ocean |
genre_facet |
Arctic North Atlantic South Atlantic Ocean |
op_source |
Geography and Meteorology Faculty Publications |
op_relation |
https://scholar.valpo.edu/geomet_fac_pub/6 http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2010JCLI3362.1 |
_version_ |
1766347982857306112 |