Major expansion of marine forests in a warmer Arctic
Accelerating warming and associated loss of sea ice are expected to promote the expansion of coastal marine forests (macrophytes) along the massive Arctic coastlines. Yet, this region has received much less attention compared to other global oceans. The available future projections of Arctic macroph...
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/17692 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.850368 |
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ftunivalgarve:oai:sapientia.ualg.pt:10400.1/17692 2023-05-15T14:37:40+02:00 Major expansion of marine forests in a warmer Arctic Assis, Jorge Serrao, Ester Duarte, Carlos M. Fragkopoulou, Eliza Krause-Jensen, Dorte 2022-03 http://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/17692 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.850368 eng eng Frontiers info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/869154/EU UID/Multi/04326/2020 PTDC/BIA-CBI/6515/2020 DL57/2016/CP1361/CT0035 SFRH/BD/144878/2019 http://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/17692 doi:10.3389/fmars.2022.850368 2296-7745 openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ CC-BY Arctic Marine forests Macrophytes Climate change Paris Agreement Range shifts article 2022 ftunivalgarve https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.850368 2022-07-06T00:01:23Z Accelerating warming and associated loss of sea ice are expected to promote the expansion of coastal marine forests (macrophytes) along the massive Arctic coastlines. Yet, this region has received much less attention compared to other global oceans. The available future projections of Arctic macrophytes are still limited to few species and regions, and mostly focused at lower latitude ranges, thus precluding well-informed IPCC impact assessments, conservation and management. Here we aim to quantify potential distributional changes of Arctic intertidal and subtidal brown macroalgae and eelgrass by the year 2100, relative to present. We estimate habitat suitability by means of species distribution modeling, considering changes in seawater temperature, salinity, nutrients and sea ice cover under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, one consistent with the Paris Agreement (RCP 2.6) and the other representing limited mitigation strategies (RCP 8.5). As data on substrate conditions do not exist, the models were restricted to the depth range supporting Arctic macrophytes (down to 5 m for eelgrass and 30 m for brown macroalgae). Models projected major expansions of Arctic macrophytes between 69,940 and 123,360 km2, depending on the climate scenario, with polar distribution limits shifting northwards by up to 1.5 latitude degrees at 21.81 km per decade. Such expansions in response to changing climate will likely elicit major changes in biodiversity and ecosystem functions in the future Arctic. Expansions are, however, less intense than those already realized over the past century, indicating an overall slowing down despite accelerated warming as habitats become increasingly occupied. This study was supported by the Independent Research Fund Denmark through the project “CARMA” (8021- 00222B) and the European Union through the project “FACE-IT” to DK-J, the Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) through projects UID/Multi/04326/2020 to CCMAR and PTDC/BIA-CBI/6515/2020, the transitional norm DL57/2016/CP1361/CT0035 ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Sea ice Universidade do Algarve: Sapienta Arctic Bia ENVELOPE(22.891,22.891,70.317,70.317) Frontiers in Marine Science 9 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Universidade do Algarve: Sapienta |
op_collection_id |
ftunivalgarve |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic Marine forests Macrophytes Climate change Paris Agreement Range shifts |
spellingShingle |
Arctic Marine forests Macrophytes Climate change Paris Agreement Range shifts Assis, Jorge Serrao, Ester Duarte, Carlos M. Fragkopoulou, Eliza Krause-Jensen, Dorte Major expansion of marine forests in a warmer Arctic |
topic_facet |
Arctic Marine forests Macrophytes Climate change Paris Agreement Range shifts |
description |
Accelerating warming and associated loss of sea ice are expected to promote the expansion of coastal marine forests (macrophytes) along the massive Arctic coastlines. Yet, this region has received much less attention compared to other global oceans. The available future projections of Arctic macrophytes are still limited to few species and regions, and mostly focused at lower latitude ranges, thus precluding well-informed IPCC impact assessments, conservation and management. Here we aim to quantify potential distributional changes of Arctic intertidal and subtidal brown macroalgae and eelgrass by the year 2100, relative to present. We estimate habitat suitability by means of species distribution modeling, considering changes in seawater temperature, salinity, nutrients and sea ice cover under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, one consistent with the Paris Agreement (RCP 2.6) and the other representing limited mitigation strategies (RCP 8.5). As data on substrate conditions do not exist, the models were restricted to the depth range supporting Arctic macrophytes (down to 5 m for eelgrass and 30 m for brown macroalgae). Models projected major expansions of Arctic macrophytes between 69,940 and 123,360 km2, depending on the climate scenario, with polar distribution limits shifting northwards by up to 1.5 latitude degrees at 21.81 km per decade. Such expansions in response to changing climate will likely elicit major changes in biodiversity and ecosystem functions in the future Arctic. Expansions are, however, less intense than those already realized over the past century, indicating an overall slowing down despite accelerated warming as habitats become increasingly occupied. This study was supported by the Independent Research Fund Denmark through the project “CARMA” (8021- 00222B) and the European Union through the project “FACE-IT” to DK-J, the Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) through projects UID/Multi/04326/2020 to CCMAR and PTDC/BIA-CBI/6515/2020, the transitional norm DL57/2016/CP1361/CT0035 ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Assis, Jorge Serrao, Ester Duarte, Carlos M. Fragkopoulou, Eliza Krause-Jensen, Dorte |
author_facet |
Assis, Jorge Serrao, Ester Duarte, Carlos M. Fragkopoulou, Eliza Krause-Jensen, Dorte |
author_sort |
Assis, Jorge |
title |
Major expansion of marine forests in a warmer Arctic |
title_short |
Major expansion of marine forests in a warmer Arctic |
title_full |
Major expansion of marine forests in a warmer Arctic |
title_fullStr |
Major expansion of marine forests in a warmer Arctic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Major expansion of marine forests in a warmer Arctic |
title_sort |
major expansion of marine forests in a warmer arctic |
publisher |
Frontiers |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/17692 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.850368 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(22.891,22.891,70.317,70.317) |
geographic |
Arctic Bia |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Bia |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Sea ice |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/869154/EU UID/Multi/04326/2020 PTDC/BIA-CBI/6515/2020 DL57/2016/CP1361/CT0035 SFRH/BD/144878/2019 http://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/17692 doi:10.3389/fmars.2022.850368 2296-7745 |
op_rights |
openAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.850368 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Marine Science |
container_volume |
9 |
_version_ |
1766309876613513216 |