Expert knowledge-based co-development of scenarios for maritime spatial planning in the Northeast Atlantic
Scenarios constitute narratives or storylines that reasonably describe how the future is likely to unfold. The usefulness of scenarios in Maritime Spatial Planning (MSP) is now recognised within policy and research, with many institutions urging the development of likely trajectories in the future s...
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/17285 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104741 |
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ftunivalgarve:oai:sapientia.ualg.pt:10400.1/17285 2024-04-28T08:31:04+00:00 Expert knowledge-based co-development of scenarios for maritime spatial planning in the Northeast Atlantic Calado, H. Pegorelli, C. Vergílio, M. Hipólito, Cláudia Campos, A. Moniz, F. Costa, A. C. Pereira da Silva, C. Fonseca, C. Frazão Santos, C. Gabriel, D. Guerreiro, J. Gil, A. J. F. Johnson, D. Ng, K. Monwar, M. M. Ventura, M. A. Suárez-de Vivero, J. L. Pinho, M. Borges, P. Caña-Varona, M. Papaioannou, E. A. 2021 http://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/17285 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104741 eng eng Elsevier 0308-597X http://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/17285 doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104741 openAccess Maritime Spatial Planning (MSP) Scenario-building approach Storylines Blue growth Maritime sectors article 2021 ftunivalgarve https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104741 2024-04-09T23:46:15Z Scenarios constitute narratives or storylines that reasonably describe how the future is likely to unfold. The usefulness of scenarios in Maritime Spatial Planning (MSP) is now recognised within policy and research, with many institutions urging the development of likely trajectories in the future state of the marine environment and space. However, little progress exists in the actual development and application of actual scenario building approaches. This paper presents the methodology and results of such an approach developed within the framework of the “Geographical and Political Scenarios in Maritime Spatial Planning for the Azores and North Atlantic (GPS Azores)” project. A scenario-building approach for MSP in the area is developed and future scenarios’ storylines are formulated through the active engagement of regional experts. Outcomes from the analysis enable identifying the major risks and opportunities in the management and use of marine space and key maritime sectors, under different scenarios. Three storylines are developed representing distinct trajectories in the use and governance of marine space: (i) Nature at Work; (ii) Business-as-usual; and (iii) Blue Development. Final storylines are the outcome of intense experts’ engagement throughout the scenario-building exercise, stressing the usefulness of such participative approaches. Results can assist policymakers in the context of an adaptive and participatory MSP approach. The methodology can be tailored to other regions, while results can be revisited and adapted as new information and knowledge emerge. ACCORES-01-0145-FEDER-002 info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Northeast Atlantic Universidade do Algarve: Sapienta Marine Policy 133 104741 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Universidade do Algarve: Sapienta |
op_collection_id |
ftunivalgarve |
language |
English |
topic |
Maritime Spatial Planning (MSP) Scenario-building approach Storylines Blue growth Maritime sectors |
spellingShingle |
Maritime Spatial Planning (MSP) Scenario-building approach Storylines Blue growth Maritime sectors Calado, H. Pegorelli, C. Vergílio, M. Hipólito, Cláudia Campos, A. Moniz, F. Costa, A. C. Pereira da Silva, C. Fonseca, C. Frazão Santos, C. Gabriel, D. Guerreiro, J. Gil, A. J. F. Johnson, D. Ng, K. Monwar, M. M. Ventura, M. A. Suárez-de Vivero, J. L. Pinho, M. Borges, P. Caña-Varona, M. Papaioannou, E. A. Expert knowledge-based co-development of scenarios for maritime spatial planning in the Northeast Atlantic |
topic_facet |
Maritime Spatial Planning (MSP) Scenario-building approach Storylines Blue growth Maritime sectors |
description |
Scenarios constitute narratives or storylines that reasonably describe how the future is likely to unfold. The usefulness of scenarios in Maritime Spatial Planning (MSP) is now recognised within policy and research, with many institutions urging the development of likely trajectories in the future state of the marine environment and space. However, little progress exists in the actual development and application of actual scenario building approaches. This paper presents the methodology and results of such an approach developed within the framework of the “Geographical and Political Scenarios in Maritime Spatial Planning for the Azores and North Atlantic (GPS Azores)” project. A scenario-building approach for MSP in the area is developed and future scenarios’ storylines are formulated through the active engagement of regional experts. Outcomes from the analysis enable identifying the major risks and opportunities in the management and use of marine space and key maritime sectors, under different scenarios. Three storylines are developed representing distinct trajectories in the use and governance of marine space: (i) Nature at Work; (ii) Business-as-usual; and (iii) Blue Development. Final storylines are the outcome of intense experts’ engagement throughout the scenario-building exercise, stressing the usefulness of such participative approaches. Results can assist policymakers in the context of an adaptive and participatory MSP approach. The methodology can be tailored to other regions, while results can be revisited and adapted as new information and knowledge emerge. ACCORES-01-0145-FEDER-002 info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Calado, H. Pegorelli, C. Vergílio, M. Hipólito, Cláudia Campos, A. Moniz, F. Costa, A. C. Pereira da Silva, C. Fonseca, C. Frazão Santos, C. Gabriel, D. Guerreiro, J. Gil, A. J. F. Johnson, D. Ng, K. Monwar, M. M. Ventura, M. A. Suárez-de Vivero, J. L. Pinho, M. Borges, P. Caña-Varona, M. Papaioannou, E. A. |
author_facet |
Calado, H. Pegorelli, C. Vergílio, M. Hipólito, Cláudia Campos, A. Moniz, F. Costa, A. C. Pereira da Silva, C. Fonseca, C. Frazão Santos, C. Gabriel, D. Guerreiro, J. Gil, A. J. F. Johnson, D. Ng, K. Monwar, M. M. Ventura, M. A. Suárez-de Vivero, J. L. Pinho, M. Borges, P. Caña-Varona, M. Papaioannou, E. A. |
author_sort |
Calado, H. |
title |
Expert knowledge-based co-development of scenarios for maritime spatial planning in the Northeast Atlantic |
title_short |
Expert knowledge-based co-development of scenarios for maritime spatial planning in the Northeast Atlantic |
title_full |
Expert knowledge-based co-development of scenarios for maritime spatial planning in the Northeast Atlantic |
title_fullStr |
Expert knowledge-based co-development of scenarios for maritime spatial planning in the Northeast Atlantic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Expert knowledge-based co-development of scenarios for maritime spatial planning in the Northeast Atlantic |
title_sort |
expert knowledge-based co-development of scenarios for maritime spatial planning in the northeast atlantic |
publisher |
Elsevier |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/17285 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104741 |
genre |
North Atlantic Northeast Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic Northeast Atlantic |
op_relation |
0308-597X http://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/17285 doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104741 |
op_rights |
openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2021.104741 |
container_title |
Marine Policy |
container_volume |
133 |
container_start_page |
104741 |
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1797588723665207296 |