Biologically meaningful distribution models highlight the benefits of the Paris Agreement for demersal fishing targets in the North Atlantic Ocean
Aim: With climate change challenging marine biodiversity and resource management, it is crucial to anticipate future latitudinal and depth shifts under contrasting global change scenarios to support policy-relevant biodiversity impact assessments [e.g., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPC...
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/15638 https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13327 |
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ftunivalgarve:oai:sapientia.ualg.pt:10400.1/15638 2023-05-15T17:32:08+02:00 Biologically meaningful distribution models highlight the benefits of the Paris Agreement for demersal fishing targets in the North Atlantic Ocean Ramos Martins, Manuel Assis, Jorge Abecasis, David 2021 http://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/15638 https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13327 eng eng Wiley 1466-822X http://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/15638 doi:10.1111/geb.13327 openAccess Biologically meaningful predictors Climate change Demersal fish North Atlantic fisheries Paris agreement Species distribution modelling article 2021 ftunivalgarve https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13327 2022-07-06T00:00:55Z Aim: With climate change challenging marine biodiversity and resource management, it is crucial to anticipate future latitudinal and depth shifts under contrasting global change scenarios to support policy-relevant biodiversity impact assessments [e.g., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)]. We aim to demonstrate the benefits of complying with the Paris Agreement (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) and limiting environmental changes, by assessing future distributional shifts of 10 commercially important demersal fish species. Location: Northern Atlantic Ocean. Time period: Analyses of distributional shifts compared near present-day conditions (2000–2017) with two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of future climate changes (2090–2100): one following the Paris Agreement climate forcing (RCP2.6) and another without stringent mitigation measures (RCP8.5). Major taxa studied: Demersal fish. Methods: We use machine learning distribution models coupled with biologically meaningful predictors to project future latitudinal and depth shifts. Structuring projections with information beyond temperature-based predictors allowed us to encompass the physiological limitations of species better. Results: Our models highlighted the additional roles of temperature, primary productivity and dissolved oxygen in shaping fish distributions (average relative contribution to the models of 32.12 ± 10.24, 15.6 ± 7.5 and 12.1 ± 6.1%, respectively). We anticipated a generalized trend of poleward shifts in both future scenarios, with aggravated changes in suitable area with RCP8.5 (average area loss with RCP2.6 = 13.3 ± 4.1%; RCP8.5 = 40.9 ± 13.3%). Shifts to deeper waters were also predicted to be of greater magnitude with RCP8.5 (average depth gain = 25.4 ± 21.5 m) than with RCP2.6 (average depth gain = 10.4 ± 7.9 m). Habitat losses were projected mostly in the Mediterranean, Celtic and Irish Seas, the southern areas of the North Sea and along the NE coast of North America. Main ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Universidade do Algarve: Sapienta Global Ecology and Biogeography |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Universidade do Algarve: Sapienta |
op_collection_id |
ftunivalgarve |
language |
English |
topic |
Biologically meaningful predictors Climate change Demersal fish North Atlantic fisheries Paris agreement Species distribution modelling |
spellingShingle |
Biologically meaningful predictors Climate change Demersal fish North Atlantic fisheries Paris agreement Species distribution modelling Ramos Martins, Manuel Assis, Jorge Abecasis, David Biologically meaningful distribution models highlight the benefits of the Paris Agreement for demersal fishing targets in the North Atlantic Ocean |
topic_facet |
Biologically meaningful predictors Climate change Demersal fish North Atlantic fisheries Paris agreement Species distribution modelling |
description |
Aim: With climate change challenging marine biodiversity and resource management, it is crucial to anticipate future latitudinal and depth shifts under contrasting global change scenarios to support policy-relevant biodiversity impact assessments [e.g., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)]. We aim to demonstrate the benefits of complying with the Paris Agreement (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) and limiting environmental changes, by assessing future distributional shifts of 10 commercially important demersal fish species. Location: Northern Atlantic Ocean. Time period: Analyses of distributional shifts compared near present-day conditions (2000–2017) with two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of future climate changes (2090–2100): one following the Paris Agreement climate forcing (RCP2.6) and another without stringent mitigation measures (RCP8.5). Major taxa studied: Demersal fish. Methods: We use machine learning distribution models coupled with biologically meaningful predictors to project future latitudinal and depth shifts. Structuring projections with information beyond temperature-based predictors allowed us to encompass the physiological limitations of species better. Results: Our models highlighted the additional roles of temperature, primary productivity and dissolved oxygen in shaping fish distributions (average relative contribution to the models of 32.12 ± 10.24, 15.6 ± 7.5 and 12.1 ± 6.1%, respectively). We anticipated a generalized trend of poleward shifts in both future scenarios, with aggravated changes in suitable area with RCP8.5 (average area loss with RCP2.6 = 13.3 ± 4.1%; RCP8.5 = 40.9 ± 13.3%). Shifts to deeper waters were also predicted to be of greater magnitude with RCP8.5 (average depth gain = 25.4 ± 21.5 m) than with RCP2.6 (average depth gain = 10.4 ± 7.9 m). Habitat losses were projected mostly in the Mediterranean, Celtic and Irish Seas, the southern areas of the North Sea and along the NE coast of North America. Main ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ramos Martins, Manuel Assis, Jorge Abecasis, David |
author_facet |
Ramos Martins, Manuel Assis, Jorge Abecasis, David |
author_sort |
Ramos Martins, Manuel |
title |
Biologically meaningful distribution models highlight the benefits of the Paris Agreement for demersal fishing targets in the North Atlantic Ocean |
title_short |
Biologically meaningful distribution models highlight the benefits of the Paris Agreement for demersal fishing targets in the North Atlantic Ocean |
title_full |
Biologically meaningful distribution models highlight the benefits of the Paris Agreement for demersal fishing targets in the North Atlantic Ocean |
title_fullStr |
Biologically meaningful distribution models highlight the benefits of the Paris Agreement for demersal fishing targets in the North Atlantic Ocean |
title_full_unstemmed |
Biologically meaningful distribution models highlight the benefits of the Paris Agreement for demersal fishing targets in the North Atlantic Ocean |
title_sort |
biologically meaningful distribution models highlight the benefits of the paris agreement for demersal fishing targets in the north atlantic ocean |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/15638 https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13327 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
1466-822X http://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/15638 doi:10.1111/geb.13327 |
op_rights |
openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13327 |
container_title |
Global Ecology and Biogeography |
_version_ |
1766130082287452160 |