Projected climate changes threaten ancient refugia of kelp forests in the North Atlantic
Intraspecific genetic variability is critical for species adaptation and evolution and yet it is generally overlooked in projections of the biological consequences of climate change. We ask whether ongoing climate changes can cause the loss of important gene pools from North Atlantic relict kelp for...
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/11339 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13818 |
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ftunivalgarve:oai:sapientia.ualg.pt:10400.1/11339 2023-05-15T15:00:37+02:00 Projected climate changes threaten ancient refugia of kelp forests in the North Atlantic Assis, J. Araujo, Miguel B. Serrao, Ester A. 2018-01 http://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/11339 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13818 eng eng Wiley info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/3599-PPCDT/EXCL%2FAAG-GLO%2F0661%2F2012/PT info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/5876/UID%2FBIA%2F50027%2F2013/PT info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/OE/SFRH%2FBPD%2F111003%2F2015/PT info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/3599-PPCDT/PTDC%2FMAR-EST%2F6053%2F2014/PT BIODIVERSA/004/2015 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UID%2FBIA%2F50027%2F2013/PT POCI-01-0145-FEDER-006821 1354-1013 http://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/11339 doi:10.1111/gcb.13818 1365-2486 restrictedAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Species distribution models Edge genetic diversity Laminaria-Hyperborea Glacial Refugia Range-edge Saccorhiza-Polyschides Fish communities Marine forests Coral-reefs Rear edge article 2018 ftunivalgarve https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13818 2023-04-05T00:01:13Z Intraspecific genetic variability is critical for species adaptation and evolution and yet it is generally overlooked in projections of the biological consequences of climate change. We ask whether ongoing climate changes can cause the loss of important gene pools from North Atlantic relict kelp forests that persisted over glacial-interglacial cycles. We use ecological niche modelling to predict genetic diversity hotspots for eight species of large brown algae with different thermal tolerances (Arctic to warm temperate), estimated as regions of persistence throughout the Last Glacial Maximum (20,000 YBP), the warmer Mid-Holocene (6,000 YBP), and the present. Changes in the genetic diversity within ancient refugia were projected for the future (year 2100) under two contrasting climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Models predicted distributions that matched empirical distributions in cross-validation, and identified distinct refugia at the low latitude ranges, which largely coincide among species with similar ecological niches. Transferred models into the future projected polewards expansions and substantial range losses in lower latitudes, where richer gene pools are expected (in Nova Scotia and Iberia for cold affinity species and Gibraltar, Alboran, and Morocco for warm-temperate species). These effects were projected for both scenarios but were intensified under the extreme RCP8.5 scenario, with the complete borealization (circum-Arctic colonization) of kelp forests, the redistribution of the biogeographical transitional zones of the North Atlantic, and the erosion of global gene pools across all species. As the geographic distribution of genetic variability is unknown for most marine species, our results represent a baseline for identification of locations potentially rich in unique phylogeographic lineages that are also climatic relics in threat of disappearing. info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change North Atlantic Universidade do Algarve: Sapienta Arctic Global Change Biology 24 1 e55 e66 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Universidade do Algarve: Sapienta |
op_collection_id |
ftunivalgarve |
language |
English |
topic |
Species distribution models Edge genetic diversity Laminaria-Hyperborea Glacial Refugia Range-edge Saccorhiza-Polyschides Fish communities Marine forests Coral-reefs Rear edge |
spellingShingle |
Species distribution models Edge genetic diversity Laminaria-Hyperborea Glacial Refugia Range-edge Saccorhiza-Polyschides Fish communities Marine forests Coral-reefs Rear edge Assis, J. Araujo, Miguel B. Serrao, Ester A. Projected climate changes threaten ancient refugia of kelp forests in the North Atlantic |
topic_facet |
Species distribution models Edge genetic diversity Laminaria-Hyperborea Glacial Refugia Range-edge Saccorhiza-Polyschides Fish communities Marine forests Coral-reefs Rear edge |
description |
Intraspecific genetic variability is critical for species adaptation and evolution and yet it is generally overlooked in projections of the biological consequences of climate change. We ask whether ongoing climate changes can cause the loss of important gene pools from North Atlantic relict kelp forests that persisted over glacial-interglacial cycles. We use ecological niche modelling to predict genetic diversity hotspots for eight species of large brown algae with different thermal tolerances (Arctic to warm temperate), estimated as regions of persistence throughout the Last Glacial Maximum (20,000 YBP), the warmer Mid-Holocene (6,000 YBP), and the present. Changes in the genetic diversity within ancient refugia were projected for the future (year 2100) under two contrasting climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Models predicted distributions that matched empirical distributions in cross-validation, and identified distinct refugia at the low latitude ranges, which largely coincide among species with similar ecological niches. Transferred models into the future projected polewards expansions and substantial range losses in lower latitudes, where richer gene pools are expected (in Nova Scotia and Iberia for cold affinity species and Gibraltar, Alboran, and Morocco for warm-temperate species). These effects were projected for both scenarios but were intensified under the extreme RCP8.5 scenario, with the complete borealization (circum-Arctic colonization) of kelp forests, the redistribution of the biogeographical transitional zones of the North Atlantic, and the erosion of global gene pools across all species. As the geographic distribution of genetic variability is unknown for most marine species, our results represent a baseline for identification of locations potentially rich in unique phylogeographic lineages that are also climatic relics in threat of disappearing. info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Assis, J. Araujo, Miguel B. Serrao, Ester A. |
author_facet |
Assis, J. Araujo, Miguel B. Serrao, Ester A. |
author_sort |
Assis, J. |
title |
Projected climate changes threaten ancient refugia of kelp forests in the North Atlantic |
title_short |
Projected climate changes threaten ancient refugia of kelp forests in the North Atlantic |
title_full |
Projected climate changes threaten ancient refugia of kelp forests in the North Atlantic |
title_fullStr |
Projected climate changes threaten ancient refugia of kelp forests in the North Atlantic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projected climate changes threaten ancient refugia of kelp forests in the North Atlantic |
title_sort |
projected climate changes threaten ancient refugia of kelp forests in the north atlantic |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/11339 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13818 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change North Atlantic |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/3599-PPCDT/EXCL%2FAAG-GLO%2F0661%2F2012/PT info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/5876/UID%2FBIA%2F50027%2F2013/PT info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/OE/SFRH%2FBPD%2F111003%2F2015/PT info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/3599-PPCDT/PTDC%2FMAR-EST%2F6053%2F2014/PT BIODIVERSA/004/2015 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UID%2FBIA%2F50027%2F2013/PT POCI-01-0145-FEDER-006821 1354-1013 http://hdl.handle.net/10400.1/11339 doi:10.1111/gcb.13818 1365-2486 |
op_rights |
restrictedAccess http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13818 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
container_volume |
24 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
e55 |
op_container_end_page |
e66 |
_version_ |
1766332703012028416 |