Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size
Predicting the ecological impacts of climate warming is critical for species conservation. Incorporating future warming into population models, however, is challenging because reproduction and survival cannot be measured for yet unobserved environmental conditions. In this study, we use mechanistic...
Main Authors: | , , , |
---|---|
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2011
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://era.library.ualberta.ca/items/e69989dd-b883-4b0b-9ce3-6f1f5a0da454 https://doi.org/10.7939/r3-expr-pg38 |
id |
ftunivalberta:oai:era.library.ualberta.ca:e69989dd-b883-4b0b-9ce3-6f1f5a0da454 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftunivalberta:oai:era.library.ualberta.ca:e69989dd-b883-4b0b-9ce3-6f1f5a0da454 2024-06-23T07:53:34+00:00 Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size Molnár, Péter K. Derocher, Andrew E. Klanjscek, Tin Lewis, Mark A. 2011-01-01 https://era.library.ualberta.ca/items/e69989dd-b883-4b0b-9ce3-6f1f5a0da454 https://doi.org/10.7939/r3-expr-pg38 English eng https://era.library.ualberta.ca/items/e69989dd-b883-4b0b-9ce3-6f1f5a0da454 doi:10.7939/r3-expr-pg38 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ Mechanistic Energy Budget Models Population Modeling Polar Bears Litter Size Declines Species Conservation Article (Published) 2011 ftunivalberta https://doi.org/10.7939/r3-expr-pg38 2024-06-03T03:09:00Z Predicting the ecological impacts of climate warming is critical for species conservation. Incorporating future warming into population models, however, is challenging because reproduction and survival cannot be measured for yet unobserved environmental conditions. In this study, we use mechanistic energy budget models and data obtainable under current conditions to predict polar bear litter size under future conditions. In western Hudson Bay, we predict climate warming-induced litter size declines that jeopardize population viability: ∼28% of pregnant females failed to reproduce for energetic reasons during the early 1990s, but 40–73% could fail if spring sea ice break-up occurs 1 month earlier than during the 1990s, and 55–100% if break-up occurs 2 months earlier. Simultaneously, mean litter size would decrease by 22–67% and 44–100%, respectively. The expected timeline for these declines varies with climate-model-specific sea ice predictions. Similar litter size declines may occur in over one-third of the global polar bear population. Article in Journal/Newspaper Hudson Bay Sea ice University of Alberta: Era - Education and Research Archive Hudson Hudson Bay |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Alberta: Era - Education and Research Archive |
op_collection_id |
ftunivalberta |
language |
English |
topic |
Mechanistic Energy Budget Models Population Modeling Polar Bears Litter Size Declines Species Conservation |
spellingShingle |
Mechanistic Energy Budget Models Population Modeling Polar Bears Litter Size Declines Species Conservation Molnár, Péter K. Derocher, Andrew E. Klanjscek, Tin Lewis, Mark A. Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size |
topic_facet |
Mechanistic Energy Budget Models Population Modeling Polar Bears Litter Size Declines Species Conservation |
description |
Predicting the ecological impacts of climate warming is critical for species conservation. Incorporating future warming into population models, however, is challenging because reproduction and survival cannot be measured for yet unobserved environmental conditions. In this study, we use mechanistic energy budget models and data obtainable under current conditions to predict polar bear litter size under future conditions. In western Hudson Bay, we predict climate warming-induced litter size declines that jeopardize population viability: ∼28% of pregnant females failed to reproduce for energetic reasons during the early 1990s, but 40–73% could fail if spring sea ice break-up occurs 1 month earlier than during the 1990s, and 55–100% if break-up occurs 2 months earlier. Simultaneously, mean litter size would decrease by 22–67% and 44–100%, respectively. The expected timeline for these declines varies with climate-model-specific sea ice predictions. Similar litter size declines may occur in over one-third of the global polar bear population. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Molnár, Péter K. Derocher, Andrew E. Klanjscek, Tin Lewis, Mark A. |
author_facet |
Molnár, Péter K. Derocher, Andrew E. Klanjscek, Tin Lewis, Mark A. |
author_sort |
Molnár, Péter K. |
title |
Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size |
title_short |
Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size |
title_full |
Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size |
title_fullStr |
Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size |
title_sort |
predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
https://era.library.ualberta.ca/items/e69989dd-b883-4b0b-9ce3-6f1f5a0da454 https://doi.org/10.7939/r3-expr-pg38 |
geographic |
Hudson Hudson Bay |
geographic_facet |
Hudson Hudson Bay |
genre |
Hudson Bay Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Hudson Bay Sea ice |
op_relation |
https://era.library.ualberta.ca/items/e69989dd-b883-4b0b-9ce3-6f1f5a0da454 doi:10.7939/r3-expr-pg38 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.7939/r3-expr-pg38 |
_version_ |
1802645292522143744 |