Oil Sands Terrestrial Habitat and Risk Modelling for Disturbance and Reclamation: The Impact of Climate Change on Tree Regeneration and Productivity – Phase III Report

• Main Authors: Seely, B., Welham, C.
• Format: Report
• Language: English
• Published: 2013
• Subjects: Oil Sands; Trees; Tar Sands; Climate Change; Forests; Modelling; Reclamation; TR-36; Alberta; OSRIN; Fort Chipewyan; Chipewyan
• Online Access: https://era.library.ualberta.ca/items/bd206a7b-1e0a-4916-8b1b-8494bc4a0d55; https://doi.org/10.7939/R3BF5B

The overall objective of this project is to develop a framework that integrates risk management and strategic decision-making to evaluate the impact of disturbance (natural and industrial) on ecosystem products and services, and on habitat availability for terrestrial species in Alberta’s Lower Athabasca planning region. This also includes an evaluation of conservation, and reclamation activities associated with oil sands development both at the lease and regional levels. The project has been conducted in phases. Each phase is sequential such that its results and conclusions represented the foundation for subsequent work. This report summarizes activities conducted as part of Phase III, consisting of the following: (1) Model projections of tree regeneration under climate change on actual oil sands reclamation materials, and (2) A comprehensive model analysis of the risks to ecosystem productivity from climate change as a consequence of the impact of moisture stress on tree mortality. Model projections of plant regeneration under climate change on actual oil sands reclamation materials Six climate change scenarios for Alberta were selected that encompassed a range of predictions in future temperature and precipitation change. The tree and climate assessment (TACA) model was calibrated for reclaimed sites that varied in their soil moisture regimes (from xeric to subhygric) and three natural sites, High Level (subxeric), Calling Lake (mesic), and Fort Chipewyan (subhygric). TACA was used to predict regeneration probabilities on these sites for jack pine, aspen, and white spruce, in conjunction with the climate change scenarios. A comparison between the natural sites and their corresponding moisture regimes on reclaimed sites showed little quantitative difference in predicted regeneration for High Level. Regeneration probabilities for Calling Lake and Fort Chipewyan, however, were lower than the corresponding moisture regimes on reclaimed sites (mesic and subhygric, respectively). The differences in the Calling Lake ...