Understanding predictive skill of Arctic Sea ice and its linkage with mid-latitude weather and climate in the NCEP Climate Forecast System

• Main Author: Mchugh, Colleen
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: Scholars Archive 2017
• Subjects: Sea ice; Weather forecasting; Ocean-atmosphere interaction; Climatic changes; Atmospheric Sciences; Climate; Arctic
• Online Access: https://scholarsarchive.library.albany.edu/legacy-etd/1888; https://scholarsarchive.library.albany.edu/context/legacy-etd/article/2887/viewcontent/Mchugh_Tix7zLWi2AvQeAirtuV8Hz.pdf

Arctic climate is undergoing significant change, particularly rapid decline of sea ice. Arctic sea ice plays an important role in local, regional, and global climate through a variety of physical processes as seen in observational analysis as well as modeling studies. Recent research suggested that decreasing autumn and winter Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) has been shown to have an effect on mid-latitude weather patterns during the winter months. Therefore, accurate forecasts of Arctic sea ice extent and the associated teleconnections with the mid-latitudes are important for accurate seasonal climate prediction. The NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) is a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-land surface model that is used for seasonal climate prediction and climate reanalysis. This study will evaluate 1) if the CFSv2 can reproduce the observed variability of Arctic SIE in the CFSv2 reanalysis and reforecasts and 2) to what extent the CFSv2 can reproduce the observed linkages seen in mid-latitude weather patterns in its reanalysis and reforecasts.