Permafrost Dynamics In 20Th And 21St Centuries Along The East-Siberian And Alaskan Transects
Dissertation (Ph.D.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2003 High latitude ecosystems where the mean annual ground surface temperature is around or below 0�C are highly sensitive to global warming. This is largely because these regions contain vast areas of permafrost, which will begin to degrade when...
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ftunivalaska:oai:scholarworks.alaska.edu:11122/8665 2023-05-15T13:03:07+02:00 Permafrost Dynamics In 20Th And 21St Centuries Along The East-Siberian And Alaskan Transects Sazonova, Tatiana Sergeevna Romanovsky, Vladimir 2003 http://hdl.handle.net/11122/8665 unknown http://hdl.handle.net/11122/8665 Department of Geology and Geophysics Geophysics Remote sensing Dissertation phd 2003 ftunivalaska 2023-02-23T21:37:06Z Dissertation (Ph.D.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2003 High latitude ecosystems where the mean annual ground surface temperature is around or below 0�C are highly sensitive to global warming. This is largely because these regions contain vast areas of permafrost, which will begin to degrade when the mean annual ground temperatures will rise above 0�C. The Alaskan and East Siberian transects, centered on the 155� WL and 135� EL, were chosen for evaluation of permafrost---atmosphere interactions. The analysis of measured data shows a significant increase in air and ground temperatures that started from the late 1960s within both these transects and the magnitude of this increase is from 0.2 to 0.5�C per decade. This trend is comparable to trends predicted by majority of global warming scenarios. A simple and accurate model for evaluating the permafrost dynamics was developed in Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab (GIPL). The GIPL model is a fusion of the modified Kudryavtsev's approach, which is a set of analytical formulas for active layer thickness (ALT) and mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) calculations, with the Geographic Information System (GIS). The evaluation of the GIPL performance showed that when applied to long-term (decadal or longer time scale) averages, this model achieves an accuracy of +/-0.2--0.4�C for the mean annual ground temperatures and +0.1--0.3 m for the active layer thickness calculations. The GIPL model was used for the hindcast of the permafrost dynamics in the 20th century, using a combination of observationally-based and simulated monthly grids of surface air temperature. The results showed that during the 20th century there were a number of relatively cold and warm periods. These climatic variations produced 1 to 3�C changes in MAGT and up to 1 m in the ALT. The forecast for the period of 2000--2100 was performed using climatic parameters from six Global Climate Models provided by Arctic Climate Impact Assessment program. The results showed that by the end of 21st century ... Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis Active layer thickness Arctic Climate Impact Assessment Arctic Global warming permafrost Alaska University of Alaska: ScholarWorks@UA Arctic Fairbanks |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
University of Alaska: ScholarWorks@UA |
op_collection_id |
ftunivalaska |
language |
unknown |
topic |
Geophysics Remote sensing |
spellingShingle |
Geophysics Remote sensing Sazonova, Tatiana Sergeevna Permafrost Dynamics In 20Th And 21St Centuries Along The East-Siberian And Alaskan Transects |
topic_facet |
Geophysics Remote sensing |
description |
Dissertation (Ph.D.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2003 High latitude ecosystems where the mean annual ground surface temperature is around or below 0�C are highly sensitive to global warming. This is largely because these regions contain vast areas of permafrost, which will begin to degrade when the mean annual ground temperatures will rise above 0�C. The Alaskan and East Siberian transects, centered on the 155� WL and 135� EL, were chosen for evaluation of permafrost---atmosphere interactions. The analysis of measured data shows a significant increase in air and ground temperatures that started from the late 1960s within both these transects and the magnitude of this increase is from 0.2 to 0.5�C per decade. This trend is comparable to trends predicted by majority of global warming scenarios. A simple and accurate model for evaluating the permafrost dynamics was developed in Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab (GIPL). The GIPL model is a fusion of the modified Kudryavtsev's approach, which is a set of analytical formulas for active layer thickness (ALT) and mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) calculations, with the Geographic Information System (GIS). The evaluation of the GIPL performance showed that when applied to long-term (decadal or longer time scale) averages, this model achieves an accuracy of +/-0.2--0.4�C for the mean annual ground temperatures and +0.1--0.3 m for the active layer thickness calculations. The GIPL model was used for the hindcast of the permafrost dynamics in the 20th century, using a combination of observationally-based and simulated monthly grids of surface air temperature. The results showed that during the 20th century there were a number of relatively cold and warm periods. These climatic variations produced 1 to 3�C changes in MAGT and up to 1 m in the ALT. The forecast for the period of 2000--2100 was performed using climatic parameters from six Global Climate Models provided by Arctic Climate Impact Assessment program. The results showed that by the end of 21st century ... |
author2 |
Romanovsky, Vladimir |
format |
Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis |
author |
Sazonova, Tatiana Sergeevna |
author_facet |
Sazonova, Tatiana Sergeevna |
author_sort |
Sazonova, Tatiana Sergeevna |
title |
Permafrost Dynamics In 20Th And 21St Centuries Along The East-Siberian And Alaskan Transects |
title_short |
Permafrost Dynamics In 20Th And 21St Centuries Along The East-Siberian And Alaskan Transects |
title_full |
Permafrost Dynamics In 20Th And 21St Centuries Along The East-Siberian And Alaskan Transects |
title_fullStr |
Permafrost Dynamics In 20Th And 21St Centuries Along The East-Siberian And Alaskan Transects |
title_full_unstemmed |
Permafrost Dynamics In 20Th And 21St Centuries Along The East-Siberian And Alaskan Transects |
title_sort |
permafrost dynamics in 20th and 21st centuries along the east-siberian and alaskan transects |
publishDate |
2003 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11122/8665 |
geographic |
Arctic Fairbanks |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Fairbanks |
genre |
Active layer thickness Arctic Climate Impact Assessment Arctic Global warming permafrost Alaska |
genre_facet |
Active layer thickness Arctic Climate Impact Assessment Arctic Global warming permafrost Alaska |
op_relation |
http://hdl.handle.net/11122/8665 Department of Geology and Geophysics |
_version_ |
1766328790664871936 |