Alaska's ice roads and investment decision in drilling: an empirical analysis

• Main Author: Azmi Wendler, Sarah
• Other Authors: Baek, Jungho, Reynolds, Douglas B., Herrmann, Mark
• Format: Thesis
• Language: English
• Published: 2019
• Subjects: ice crossings; Alaska; North Slope; petroleum; prospecting; Fairbanks; Alaska North Slope; north slope
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/11122/10608

Thesis (M.S.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2019 This thesis applies Autoregressive Distributed Lag modeling techniques to estimate the effects of ice road season lengths on exploration activities in Alaska within the North Slope. This analysis uses data on winter off-road travel from 2001-2018 in monthly intervals against exploration wells spudded. It is found that while ice roads do not affect overall drilling activities in the North Slope, the lengths of the season plays significant part in exploration of new fields. While this subject has become a popular subject due to variations in the ice road season, no similar statistical analysis has been conducted to date. Oil prices, production and Alaska's oil policy were also found to be important variables in characterizing exploration activity.