Exploring the potential role of late stage predation and Chinook salmon age structure

• Main Author: Manishin, Kaitlyn A.
• Other Authors: Seitz, Andrew C., Westley, Peter A. H., Cunningham, Curry J., Goldman, Kenneth J.
• Format: Thesis
• Language: English
• Published: 2018
• Subjects: Chinook salmon; predators; North Pacific Ocean; Fairbanks; Pacific; Yukon; Yukon river; Alaska
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/11122/10301

Thesis (M.S.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2018 Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) populations across the North Pacific have displayed a decrease in body size-at-return resulting from declines both in age- and body size-at-maturity. These changes have precipitated the loss of the oldest age classes in some populations and have occurred throughout the range of this species, suggesting a shared - yet currently unknown - driver in the common marine environment. A hypothesis for the cause of these changes is intense and/or selective predation marine mortality after the first winter in the ocean, potentially from predators selectively removing relatively large sub-adult Chinook salmon. Here I consider the question: under what circumstances could predation on large sub-adult individuals by salmon sharks (Lamna ditropis) change the age structure of a Chinook salmon population? To address this question, I first estimated total per capita prey consumption by salmon sharks - an increasingly acknowledged predator of salmon on the high seas - using three methods: 1) daily ration requirement, 2) bioenergetic mass balance, 3) and a von Bertalanffy growth model. Second, I examined the effects of additional predation on an indicator Chinook salmon population from the Yukon River by simulating alternative predation scenarios with a stage-structured life cycle model. Scenarios described the strength and selectivity of predation, and the resulting simulated age structure was then compared to observed demography. The selectivity and intensity of removals required to produce this change in age structure were considered in the context of top predators, focusing on salmon sharks. The daily ration method yielded individual salmon shark consumption estimates of 1461 and 2202 kg·yr-1, the mass-balance method produced estimates of 1870 kg·yr-1, 2070 kg·yr-1, 1610 kg·yr-1, and 1762 kg·yr-1, depending on assumed diet, and the growth model output estimates of 16,900 kg·yr-1 or 20,800 kg·yr-1, depending on assumed assimilation ...