Simulation of Arctic sea ice within the DeepMIP Eocene ensemble: Thresholds, seasonality and factors controlling sea ice development
International audience The early Eocene greenhouse climate maintained by high atmospheric CO2 concentrations serves as a testbed for future climate changes dominated by increasing CO2 forcing. In particular, the early Eocene Arctic region is important in the context of future CO2 driven climate warm...
Published in: | Global and Planetary Change |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
HAL CCSD
2022
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-03681710 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103848 |
id |
ftunivaixmarseil:oai:HAL:hal-03681710v1 |
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record_format |
openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Aix-Marseille Université: HAL |
op_collection_id |
ftunivaixmarseil |
language |
English |
topic |
Early Eocene Arctic Ocean Sea ice Earth system model Model intercomparison [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment |
spellingShingle |
Early Eocene Arctic Ocean Sea ice Earth system model Model intercomparison [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment Niezgodzki, Igor Knorr, Gregor Lohmann, Gerrit Lunt, Daniel Poulsen, Christopher Steinig, Sebastian Zhu, Jiang de Boer, Agatha Chan, Wing-Le Donnadieu, Yannick Hutchinson, David Ladant, Jean-Baptiste Morozova, Polina Simulation of Arctic sea ice within the DeepMIP Eocene ensemble: Thresholds, seasonality and factors controlling sea ice development |
topic_facet |
Early Eocene Arctic Ocean Sea ice Earth system model Model intercomparison [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment |
description |
International audience The early Eocene greenhouse climate maintained by high atmospheric CO2 concentrations serves as a testbed for future climate changes dominated by increasing CO2 forcing. In particular, the early Eocene Arctic region is important in the context of future CO2 driven climate warming in the northern polar region and associated shrinking Arctic sea ice. Here, we present early Eocene Arctic sea ice simulations carried out by six coupled climate models within the framework of the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP). We find differences in sea ice responses to CO2 changes across the ensemble and compare the results with available proxy-based sea ice reconstructions from the Arctic Ocean. Most of the models simulate seasonal sea ice presence at high CO2 levels (≥ 840 ppmv = 3× pre-industrial (PI) level of 280 ppmv). However, the threshold when sea ice permanently disappears from the ocean varies considerably between the models (from <840 ppmv to >1680 ppmv). Based on a one-dimensional energy balance model analysis we find that the greenhouse effect likely caused by increased atmospheric water vapor concentration plays an important role in the inter-model spread in Arctic winter surface temperature changes in response to a CO2 rise from 1× to 3× the PI level. Furthermore, differences in simulated surface salinity in the Arctic Ocean play an important role in the control of local sea ice formation. These differences result from different implementations of river run-off between the models, but also from differences in the exchange of waters between a brackish Arctic and a more saline North Atlantic Ocean that are controlled by the width of the gateway between both basins. As there is no geological evidence for Arctic sea ice in the early Eocene, its presence in most of the simulations with 3× PI CO2 level indicates either a higher CO2 level and/or an overly weak polar sensitivity in these models. |
author2 |
Institute of Geological Sciences, Polish Academy of Sciences Polska Akademia Nauk = Polish Academy of Sciences = Académie polonaise des sciences (PAN) Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) School of Geographical Sciences Bristol University of Bristol Bristol Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences Ann Arbor University of Michigan Ann Arbor University of Michigan System-University of Michigan System National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder (NCAR) Department of Geological Sciences Stockholm Stockholm University Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute Kashiwa-shi (AORI) The University of Tokyo (UTokyo) Centre européen de recherche et d'enseignement des géosciences de l'environnement (CEREGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Collège de France (CdF (institution))-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) Climate Change Research Centre Sydney (CCRC) University of New South Wales Sydney (UNSW) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Modélisation du climat (CLIM) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Institute of Geography of RAS Russian Academy of Sciences Moscow (RAS) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Niezgodzki, Igor Knorr, Gregor Lohmann, Gerrit Lunt, Daniel Poulsen, Christopher Steinig, Sebastian Zhu, Jiang de Boer, Agatha Chan, Wing-Le Donnadieu, Yannick Hutchinson, David Ladant, Jean-Baptiste Morozova, Polina |
author_facet |
Niezgodzki, Igor Knorr, Gregor Lohmann, Gerrit Lunt, Daniel Poulsen, Christopher Steinig, Sebastian Zhu, Jiang de Boer, Agatha Chan, Wing-Le Donnadieu, Yannick Hutchinson, David Ladant, Jean-Baptiste Morozova, Polina |
author_sort |
Niezgodzki, Igor |
title |
Simulation of Arctic sea ice within the DeepMIP Eocene ensemble: Thresholds, seasonality and factors controlling sea ice development |
title_short |
Simulation of Arctic sea ice within the DeepMIP Eocene ensemble: Thresholds, seasonality and factors controlling sea ice development |
title_full |
Simulation of Arctic sea ice within the DeepMIP Eocene ensemble: Thresholds, seasonality and factors controlling sea ice development |
title_fullStr |
Simulation of Arctic sea ice within the DeepMIP Eocene ensemble: Thresholds, seasonality and factors controlling sea ice development |
title_full_unstemmed |
Simulation of Arctic sea ice within the DeepMIP Eocene ensemble: Thresholds, seasonality and factors controlling sea ice development |
title_sort |
simulation of arctic sea ice within the deepmip eocene ensemble: thresholds, seasonality and factors controlling sea ice development |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-03681710 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103848 |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean North Atlantic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean North Atlantic Sea ice |
op_source |
ISSN: 0921-8181 Global and Planetary Change https://hal.science/hal-03681710 Global and Planetary Change, 2022, 214, pp.103848. ⟨10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103848⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103848 hal-03681710 https://hal.science/hal-03681710 doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103848 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103848 |
container_title |
Global and Planetary Change |
container_volume |
214 |
container_start_page |
103848 |
_version_ |
1797575718858653696 |
spelling |
ftunivaixmarseil:oai:HAL:hal-03681710v1 2024-04-28T08:06:01+00:00 Simulation of Arctic sea ice within the DeepMIP Eocene ensemble: Thresholds, seasonality and factors controlling sea ice development Niezgodzki, Igor Knorr, Gregor Lohmann, Gerrit Lunt, Daniel Poulsen, Christopher Steinig, Sebastian Zhu, Jiang de Boer, Agatha Chan, Wing-Le Donnadieu, Yannick Hutchinson, David Ladant, Jean-Baptiste Morozova, Polina Institute of Geological Sciences, Polish Academy of Sciences Polska Akademia Nauk = Polish Academy of Sciences = Académie polonaise des sciences (PAN) Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) School of Geographical Sciences Bristol University of Bristol Bristol Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences Ann Arbor University of Michigan Ann Arbor University of Michigan System-University of Michigan System National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder (NCAR) Department of Geological Sciences Stockholm Stockholm University Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute Kashiwa-shi (AORI) The University of Tokyo (UTokyo) Centre européen de recherche et d'enseignement des géosciences de l'environnement (CEREGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Collège de France (CdF (institution))-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) Climate Change Research Centre Sydney (CCRC) University of New South Wales Sydney (UNSW) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Gif-sur-Yvette (LSCE) Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA) Modélisation du climat (CLIM) Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)) Institute of Geography of RAS Russian Academy of Sciences Moscow (RAS) 2022-05 https://hal.science/hal-03681710 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103848 en eng HAL CCSD Elsevier info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103848 hal-03681710 https://hal.science/hal-03681710 doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103848 ISSN: 0921-8181 Global and Planetary Change https://hal.science/hal-03681710 Global and Planetary Change, 2022, 214, pp.103848. ⟨10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103848⟩ Early Eocene Arctic Ocean Sea ice Earth system model Model intercomparison [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces environment info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2022 ftunivaixmarseil https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103848 2024-04-04T17:30:39Z International audience The early Eocene greenhouse climate maintained by high atmospheric CO2 concentrations serves as a testbed for future climate changes dominated by increasing CO2 forcing. In particular, the early Eocene Arctic region is important in the context of future CO2 driven climate warming in the northern polar region and associated shrinking Arctic sea ice. Here, we present early Eocene Arctic sea ice simulations carried out by six coupled climate models within the framework of the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP). We find differences in sea ice responses to CO2 changes across the ensemble and compare the results with available proxy-based sea ice reconstructions from the Arctic Ocean. Most of the models simulate seasonal sea ice presence at high CO2 levels (≥ 840 ppmv = 3× pre-industrial (PI) level of 280 ppmv). However, the threshold when sea ice permanently disappears from the ocean varies considerably between the models (from <840 ppmv to >1680 ppmv). Based on a one-dimensional energy balance model analysis we find that the greenhouse effect likely caused by increased atmospheric water vapor concentration plays an important role in the inter-model spread in Arctic winter surface temperature changes in response to a CO2 rise from 1× to 3× the PI level. Furthermore, differences in simulated surface salinity in the Arctic Ocean play an important role in the control of local sea ice formation. These differences result from different implementations of river run-off between the models, but also from differences in the exchange of waters between a brackish Arctic and a more saline North Atlantic Ocean that are controlled by the width of the gateway between both basins. As there is no geological evidence for Arctic sea ice in the early Eocene, its presence in most of the simulations with 3× PI CO2 level indicates either a higher CO2 level and/or an overly weak polar sensitivity in these models. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean North Atlantic Sea ice Aix-Marseille Université: HAL Global and Planetary Change 214 103848 |