Potential stabilizing points to mitigate tipping point interactions in Earth's climate
International audience ‘Tipping points’ (TPs) are thresholds of potentially disproportionate changes in the Earth’s climate systemassociated with future global warming and are considered today as a ‘hot’ topic in environmental sciences. In this study, TPinteractions are analysed from an integrated a...
Published in: | International Journal of Climatology |
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-01555740 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4712 |
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ftunivaixmarseil:oai:HAL:hal-01555740v1 2024-02-11T09:58:05+01:00 Potential stabilizing points to mitigate tipping point interactions in Earth's climate Gaucherel, Cedric Moron, Vincent Botanique et Modélisation de l'Architecture des Plantes et des Végétations (UMR AMAP) Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD France-Sud ) Institut Français de Pondichéry (IFP) Ministère de l'Europe et des Affaires étrangères (MEAE)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Centre européen de recherche et d'enseignement des géosciences de l'environnement (CEREGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Collège de France (CdF (institution))-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Columbia University New York 2016-03-30 https://hal.science/hal-01555740 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4712 en eng HAL CCSD Wiley info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/joc.4712 hal-01555740 https://hal.science/hal-01555740 doi:10.1002/joc.4712 PRODINRA: 368206 WOS: 000392415700029 ISSN: 0899-8418 EISSN: 1097-0088 International Journal of Climatology https://hal.science/hal-01555740 International Journal of Climatology, 2016, 37 (1), pp.399 - 408. ⟨10.1002/joc.4712⟩ http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4712/abstract integrative model Boolean model formal grammar expert elicitation graph climate change [SDV.EE.BIO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology environment/Bioclimatology [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2016 ftunivaixmarseil https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.471210.1002/joc.4712/abstract 2024-01-23T23:43:41Z International audience ‘Tipping points’ (TPs) are thresholds of potentially disproportionate changes in the Earth’s climate systemassociated with future global warming and are considered today as a ‘hot’ topic in environmental sciences. In this study, TPinteractions are analysed from an integrated and conceptual point of view using two qualitative Boolean models built on graphgrammars. They allow an accurate study of the node TP interactions previously identified by expert elicitation and take intoaccount a range of various large-scale climate processes potentially able to trigger, alone or jointly, instability in the globalclimate. Our findings show that, contrary to commonly held beliefs, far from causing runaway changes in the Earth’s climate,such as self-acceleration due to additive positive feedbacks, successive perturbations might actually lead to its stabilization. Amore comprehensive model defined TPs as interactions between nine (non-exhaustive) large-scale subsystems of the Earth’sclimate, highlighting the enhanced sensitivity to the triggering of the disintegration of the west Antarctic ice sheet. We areclaiming that today, it is extremely difficult to guess the fate of the global climate system as TP sensitivity depends stronglyon the definition of the model. Finally, we demonstrate the stronger effect of decreasing rules (i.e. mitigating connected TPs)over other rule types, thus suggesting the critical role of possible ‘stabilizing points’ that are yet to be identified and studied. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Aix-Marseille Université: HAL Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet International Journal of Climatology 37 1 399 408 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Aix-Marseille Université: HAL |
op_collection_id |
ftunivaixmarseil |
language |
English |
topic |
integrative model Boolean model formal grammar expert elicitation graph climate change [SDV.EE.BIO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology environment/Bioclimatology [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology |
spellingShingle |
integrative model Boolean model formal grammar expert elicitation graph climate change [SDV.EE.BIO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology environment/Bioclimatology [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology Gaucherel, Cedric Moron, Vincent Potential stabilizing points to mitigate tipping point interactions in Earth's climate |
topic_facet |
integrative model Boolean model formal grammar expert elicitation graph climate change [SDV.EE.BIO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology environment/Bioclimatology [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology |
description |
International audience ‘Tipping points’ (TPs) are thresholds of potentially disproportionate changes in the Earth’s climate systemassociated with future global warming and are considered today as a ‘hot’ topic in environmental sciences. In this study, TPinteractions are analysed from an integrated and conceptual point of view using two qualitative Boolean models built on graphgrammars. They allow an accurate study of the node TP interactions previously identified by expert elicitation and take intoaccount a range of various large-scale climate processes potentially able to trigger, alone or jointly, instability in the globalclimate. Our findings show that, contrary to commonly held beliefs, far from causing runaway changes in the Earth’s climate,such as self-acceleration due to additive positive feedbacks, successive perturbations might actually lead to its stabilization. Amore comprehensive model defined TPs as interactions between nine (non-exhaustive) large-scale subsystems of the Earth’sclimate, highlighting the enhanced sensitivity to the triggering of the disintegration of the west Antarctic ice sheet. We areclaiming that today, it is extremely difficult to guess the fate of the global climate system as TP sensitivity depends stronglyon the definition of the model. Finally, we demonstrate the stronger effect of decreasing rules (i.e. mitigating connected TPs)over other rule types, thus suggesting the critical role of possible ‘stabilizing points’ that are yet to be identified and studied. |
author2 |
Botanique et Modélisation de l'Architecture des Plantes et des Végétations (UMR AMAP) Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD France-Sud ) Institut Français de Pondichéry (IFP) Ministère de l'Europe et des Affaires étrangères (MEAE)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Centre européen de recherche et d'enseignement des géosciences de l'environnement (CEREGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Collège de France (CdF (institution))-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Columbia University New York |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gaucherel, Cedric Moron, Vincent |
author_facet |
Gaucherel, Cedric Moron, Vincent |
author_sort |
Gaucherel, Cedric |
title |
Potential stabilizing points to mitigate tipping point interactions in Earth's climate |
title_short |
Potential stabilizing points to mitigate tipping point interactions in Earth's climate |
title_full |
Potential stabilizing points to mitigate tipping point interactions in Earth's climate |
title_fullStr |
Potential stabilizing points to mitigate tipping point interactions in Earth's climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Potential stabilizing points to mitigate tipping point interactions in Earth's climate |
title_sort |
potential stabilizing points to mitigate tipping point interactions in earth's climate |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-01555740 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4712 |
geographic |
Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
op_source |
ISSN: 0899-8418 EISSN: 1097-0088 International Journal of Climatology https://hal.science/hal-01555740 International Journal of Climatology, 2016, 37 (1), pp.399 - 408. ⟨10.1002/joc.4712⟩ http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4712/abstract |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/joc.4712 hal-01555740 https://hal.science/hal-01555740 doi:10.1002/joc.4712 PRODINRA: 368206 WOS: 000392415700029 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.471210.1002/joc.4712/abstract |
container_title |
International Journal of Climatology |
container_volume |
37 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
399 |
op_container_end_page |
408 |
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1790593668570152960 |